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2025 Michigan State Spartans Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/27/2025

Michigan State Spartans basketball predictions Jaxon Kohler

The Michigan State Spartans re-emerged as a Big 10 powerhouse last season. They suffered some early nonconference losses to #1 Kansas and Memphis, but they picked up some solid wins against #12 UNC, Colorado, and FAU. They took some momentum from the end of their nonconference schedule into Big 10 play, opening the conference schedule by winning their first nine such games. They went 8-2 against Top 25 teams, including 7-1 against ranked Big 10 teams. Despite what was shown on the schedule, the Spartans ended the regular season on a seven-game winning streak beating Illinois, #13 Purdue, #12 Michigan, #16 Maryland, #11 Wisconsin, Iowa, and #17 Michigan. After a dominating end to the regular season, they beat the Oregon Ducks by 10 before ultimately falling short of the Big 10 Tournament crown with a three-point loss to Wisconsin. After an incredible regular season, the Spartans began March Madness with a 2-Seed. They took down 15-Seed Bryant and then 10-Seed New Mexico. This set up a matchup with 6-Seed Ole Miss in the Sweet 16 who snuck passed with a three-point victory. Unfortunately, their season ended in the Elite Eight where the Spartans were eliminated by top seed Auburn.

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The Spartans ranked eighth in the conference as they averaged 77.7 PPG. They shot nearly 46% as a team, though they struggled behind the arc as they managed a lowly 31.1% 3P% which ranked last in the Big 10. Despite their poor shooting, they did rank second in the conference with a 77.9% FT%. The defense was the real strength of this Spartans team as they held opponents to just 67.1 PPG and a mere 40.5% FG%. If that isn’t impressive enough, opponents managed to record just a 28% 3P% against Michigan State last season. They finished second in the Big 10 in PPG differential, FG% differential, and FT%. Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson formed the dynamic duo for the Spartans. They both averaged over 12 PPG and three RPG. Richardson was a real threat from deep as he led the team with a 41.2% 3P%. Tre Holloman was the biggest threat from the charity stripe as he shot 85.1% from the line and he finished third on the team with 9.1 PPG. Jaxon Kohler averaged a team best 7.5 RPG while Jeremy Fears Jr. led the team with 5.4 APG.

Key Additions/Losses

The Spartans lost Akins to eligibility and Richardson to the NBA as he landed a roster spot with the Orlando Magic. Michigan State also lost three players to the transfer portal. Xavier Booker who averaged 4.7 PPG in 12.8 MPG for the Spartans, left for a fellow Big 10 team in the UCLA Bruins. Depth piece Gehrig Normand left for Santa Clara, but the biggest portal loss was Holloman who was the team leader in FT%. He signed with North Carolina State during the offseason.

To replace the talent lost from last season, the Spartans signed two four-star prospects from last year’s High School class. They signed the 46th ranked prospect in Cam Ward and the 54th ranked prospect in Jordan Scott. Trey Fort is the headliner for Michigan State’s incoming players. Fort averaged 14.6 PPG for Samford and Michigan State will be his fourth school in four years. Kaleb Glenn averaged 12.6 PPG and 4.8 RPG with Florida Atlantic last season, and he will bring his 41% 3P% to East Lansing. The incoming class is rounded out by Divine Ugochukwu who averaged 5.3 PPG in 28 games for Miami last season.

X-Factors

The Defense- If the defense is unable to replicate their dominance from last season, it will be hard to imagine the roster finding ways to win. Akins and Richardson were quite the duo for the Spartans and now they have to replace both. The incoming prospects form a solid group, but it is not getting anyone overly excited. There is a reason that this group has gone from a 2-Seed in March Madness to the 22nd ranked team in the country. There has been a big drop off in talent and it remains to be seen whether or not they will have the weapons to compete.

Notable Games

Home - #14 Arkansas, #6 Duke, #7 Michigan, #17 Illinois, #12 UCLA

Away/Neutral - #9 Kentucky, #25 UNC, @ #24 Wisconsin, @ #1 Purdue, @ #7 Michigan

Key Odds/Rankings:

NCAA Champion: +4000

Conference Winner: +1700

AP Top 25- 22nd

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 21st

2025 Michigan State Spartans Predictions

The Spartans need their new guys to click, and while it may seem like they are the defensive wizards that often find their way to East Lansing, the scoring capabilities seem rather unimpressive. We should get an early look at just how high the ceiling is for this team thanks to their tough nonconference schedule. Three of their first seven games are going to be against other Top 25 teams as they take on #14 Arkansas, #9 Kentucky, and #25 UNC and #6 Duke soon after that stretch. It doesn’t help either that the Big 10 is a powerhouse and there will be little to no breaks in the schedule once the calendar turns to thew new year. Michigan State is one of those teams that are hard to place any stock in until you see how well they perform on the court. Stay away from the Spartans.

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