Super Bowl LI might be the least interesting Super Bowl since the Baltimore Ravens defeated the San Francisco 49ers back in Super Bowl XLVII. The majority of the world simply hates the New England Patriots with a passion. The only people who want to see Tom Brady win his fourth Super Bowl are the residents of Massachusetts. As for Atlanta, I would have never predicted that the Falcons would require several bandwagons to carry their supporters. Because I am one of those Falcons' bandwagoners that hates the Patriots, my opinion would be biased if I picked a side against the spread . Instead, I will be giving you advice on how to bet this year's high total.
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The most common thought regarding this game is that there will be plenty of points scored and the number is a little too low to warrant taking the "under". As was the case for both the AFC and NFC Championship Games, both Atlanta and New England posses an offense that can bite of big chunks of yardage at a time in several different fashions. While I'm not calling for this game to be the highest-scoring Super Bowl of all time (the record is 75 points - Super Bowl XXIX - 49er's/Chargers), I am going to expertly predict this game does creep over the number.
Let's take a closer look at some Super Bowl total trends and analysis. All odds are courtesy of 5Dimes.
Super Bowl Total Line
"Over" 58.5, -110, "Under" 58.5, -110
The Super Bowl total opened up at 58.5 and quickly shot up to 59. Most of Doc's Sports affiliated sportsbook are offering up 58.5, with two offering up an even 59. The over is seeing the majority of the action, and rightfully so, with two of the highest-scoring teams in the league set to go head-to-head. I fully expect the total to creep up to the 60 mark as we get closer to kickoff because the public almost always sides with the over when wagering on football games. The key factor that could derail the over is the Patriots' defense, which ranks first in points allowed per game (15.8). They have held opponents to 17 points or less in five straight games, but that was against the likes of Denver, New York Jets, Miami, Houston and Pittsburgh - all of which aren't in the same conversation as the Falcons' offense.
Super Bowl Total Line Trends
Depending on what side of the total you like to bet, the results have definitely been mixed at best. Over the last 10 years, the total has been split right down the middle. Typically, the Super Bowl tends to be a high-scoring game, and there have been nine games that have cracked the 58.5-point mark. Let's take a look at a few totals trends for both New England and Atlanta. I fully expect the over to be the most dominant trend, thus supporting my case for making the over an automatic play regardless of the side you like.
New England Patriots
Over is 5-0 in Patriots last five games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Over is 6-1 in Patriots last seven playoff games.
Over is 43-18 in Patriots last 61 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 45-22 in Patriots last 67 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 47-23 in Patriots last 70 games following an ATS win.
Over is 5-0-1 in Falcons last six games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Falcons last four playoff games.
Over is 4-0-1 in Falcons last five games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-0-1 in Falcons last five games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-0-1 in Falcons last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Falcons last five vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 15-5-1 in Falcons last 21 games overall.
Three of the last four Super Bowls have gone over the total of 47.5/48.
The over has hit in four of the last six Super Bowls
Super Bowl Totals Betting Advice and Tips
It's tough to make a solid case for this game to stay under the number. Both teams have great quarterbacks that are locked in and putting up solid numbers regardless of the opponent. The supporting cast of both teams is great, with the advantage going to the Falcons. We all know the Falcons defense has been the weak-link, so if the city of Atlanta is to host a Super Bowl parade, the Falcons will likely have to win a shootout.
The Patriots can potentially win two ways. They have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Falcons, but they also have the top-ranked defense that could potentially shut Matt Ryan and Co. down. I would like to think that with an extra week of preparation, the Falcons' can put in some new wrinkles on offense and keep putting up points with ease. No matter what way you're leaning in this game, the over is the likeliest outcome of the game.
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