NBA Handicapping: Playoff Races Shaping Up in East and West

by Trevor Whenham - 2/27/2017

The All-Star Game and trade deadline has passed, so we are shifting into the home stretch of this NBA season. The playoffs are still a little ways off, but the picture of which teams will be playing in them is getting clearer. The playoff race is obviously of great interest to bettors. Teams with something serious on the line can play with heightened intensity. Teams with little on the line could find it hard to reach their full potential. It makes sense, then, to take a close look at the races as they shape up in both conferences:

Eastern Conference

We'll start at the top. Cleveland has a three-game lead on the Celtics and also has two games in hand. The Kevin Love injury is obviously a big blow, and Boston still has two home games against Cleveland remaining to make things interesting. Cleveland has a clear edge, but they can't rest on their laurels. Washington and Toronto are both three games behind the Celtics, so they aren't a legitimate threat to the Cavs at this point.

The next point of interest is for fourth place. Having home-court advantage in the first round is key. Atlanta is 2.5 games behind Toronto and Washington. The Wizards have struggled recently but are generally playing well. The Raptors had the best trade deadline in the East and are looking like they could pick up their play. It's hard to imagine Atlanta moving up.

The bottom of the playoff standings are where the drama happens. Detroit currently holds down the last spot, two games behind Chicago and Indiana. The Pistons can't rest easy, though - Miami and Milwaukee are each just a game back, and Charlotte is two more games back. Miami has long been playing the best ball of that group, and despite being behind now they have to be viewed as the favorites to make the postseason. With no shortage of inspiration for the six teams fighting for three spots, there will be plenty of betting opportunities generated here down the stretch.

Western Conference

Up top there is little drama. The Warriors have a four-game lead on the Spurs, and it is all but impossible to imagine them giving that up. Similarly, the Spurs have a four-game lead on third-place Houston, and they aren't giving that up, either. Nor, for that matter, is Houston giving up their 4.5-game lead on the Jazz for third. The top three are all but locked in place as they currently sit, and those three are, to my eyes, the only viable contenders in the West as well. So, while we will go on to look at the rest of the playoff race in the conference, it's really hard to imagine that it matters.

The Jazz sit in fourth with a one-game lead on the Clippers and are playing considerably better lately. They are battling for home-court advantage in the first round, so it's significant. Not too significant, though - the winner of that series will likely run into Golden State in the second round, and that's just not going to go well. Memphis is a game and a half back of the Clippers, and the Thunder are a further half game back. They could both potentially get into the battle for fourth, but neither is showing a ton of momentum right now. Again, it just doesn't really matter much because none of them are nearly good enough to beat one of the top three.

The Warriors will very likely win their first-round series in the minimum four games. What is still an open question is who they will beat up in that series. Currently Denver, with a pitiful .441 record, holds the right to be humiliated. Sacramento is just a game back and has been playing reasonably well lately, but after giving away their foundational player for not much more than a bag of old balls it's hard to imagine them keeping up the fight in a convincing way.

Portland is a half game back of Sacramento and is the most promising of the contenders - if only because they are the ones that are most dramatically underachieving the expectations of them heading into the season. They really don't have the talent of a 10^th-place team, but they have been just awful all year and have just three wins in their last 10 games. The Mavericks are a further game back, but their continued lack of offense makes it hard to believe in them. Minnesota is another half game back of Dallas and just three games back of Denver. They have the talent to go on a run, but they haven't shown the readiness to perform well at this point. Yet another half game back is perhaps the most interesting team - the reloaded Pelicans. The first two games of the Cousins era has made it hard to believe in their chances, though. Cousins and Davis have been serious scoring weapons together, but no one else has been able to do anything else, and those two alone can't outscore opponent. I'd bet on Portland or Denver, but I just don't care that much.

Start:	December 15, 2024 @ 8:20 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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