NCAA Basketball Expert Predictions: Three Interesting Feb. 15 Opening Lines

by Alan Matthews - 2/14/2017

The University of Oklahoma - it always irritates me to see the Sooners' football helmets that say OU when it should obviously UO - has made the NCAA Tournament every year since 2013. Last year's club, led by Buddy Hield and Jordan Woodard, reached the Final Four. Any shot this year's struggling Sooners had of some sort of miracle run in the Big 12 Tournament to earn an NCAA berth probably vanished on Sunday when the school announced that Woodard is done for the season with a torn ACL in his right knee. He was hurt in Saturday's loss at Iowa State. The senior was averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists and finishes his college career 14th in school history with 1,440 points, fourth in assists, fifth in made free throws, seventh in steals, eighth in free throw percentage and eighth in minutes played. When does spring football start in Norman?

Arkansas at No. 21 South Carolina ( -9.5 )

A 6:30 p.m. ET tipoff on the SEC Network. Big one for the Hogs as they are currently listed among ESPN's "last four in" for the NCAA Tournament. The school has been dancing only once this decade, and that was 2015. At 18-7 overall and 7-5 in the SEC, I think the Razorbacks still have work to do, even with a win here. Their only Top-50 wins are over UT Arlington and Tennessee. Arkansas did end a two-game losing streak Saturday with a 78-70 victory at terrible LSU. The Hogs used a 29-7 run to take a nine-point lead. Seven of Arkansas' first nine made baskets to start the second half came from behind the 3-point arc. After only shooting 37.0 percent from the field in the first half, the Razorbacks shot 53.8 percent after intermission. Dusty Hannahs and Daryl Macon led the Razorbacks with 17 points each. They hadn't won in Baton Rouge since the 2007-08 season.

South Carolina is tied atop the SEC with Florida and Kentucky. The Gamecocks are done with UK in the regular season, losing the lone meeting. They are 1-0 vs. Florida and visit the Gators next Tuesday. USC comes off a 77-73 victory at Mississippi State on Saturday. South Carolina star Sindarius Thornwell scored 28 points and largely guarded MSU's best player, Quinndary Weatherspoon, and held him to five points. Thornwell was named SEC Player of the Week on Monday. He leads the Gamecocks in points (19.8), rebounds (7.2) and steals (2.2) per game. USC has clinched just its fifth winning conference season in 26 years in the SEC. This is the only scheduled meeting between Arkansas and South Carolina.

Key trends: The Razorbacks are 2-5 against the spread in their past seven after a win. The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their past seven at home vs. teams with a winning road record. USC is 5-2 ATS in the past seven home meetings.

I'm leaning: South Carolina.

No. 23 Maryland at Northwestern (-3.5)

This tips at 7 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network. Here's a sentence I don't think I've ever typed when it comes to men's college basketball: It's a potential letdown game for Northwestern. It's now all but a foregone conclusion that the Wildcats will make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. The second-longest drought for a major conference team belongs to fellow Big Ten team Rutgers (1991). The Wildcats got maybe the biggest win in school history on Sunday, a 66-59 stunner at No. 7 Wisconsin. Bryant McIntosh scored 25 points to lead NU, which is one of the nation's top defensive teams. The Cats did it without leading scorer Scottie Lindsey, who missed a third straight game with mono -- and he's reportedly not playing here. The win snapped a 16-game losing streak for Northwestern vs. AP Top-10 teams and at 19-6 it is already just one win from tying the school record for most victories in a season. Chris Collins needs to be the National Coach of the Year.

Maryland benefitted from that Northwestern win as the Terps (and Purdue) are now just a game behind Wisconsin for the Big Ten lead. Those schools play Sunday in Madison in their only scheduled meeting. Maryland will be favored in its final four games after that, so it would be in good shape to be the Big Ten's top seed in the conference tournament with victories here and Sunday. Maryland ended a two-game losing streak Saturday with an 86-77 victory over Ohio State. Anthony Cowan scored 19 points and fellow freshman Kevin Huerter added 18 for the Terrapins. This is the only meeting between Maryland and Northwestern. The Terps won both in 2015-16.

Key trends: The Terps are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10. The Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 at home. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four.

I'm leaning: Maryland.

No. 12 Duke at No. 14 Virginia (-4.5)

ACC game at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2. It's the only matchup of ranked teams Wednesday. Duke is starting to play to expectations in winning five straight to pull within a game of North Carolina's ACC lead. The Dukies were nearly caught in a sandwich game Saturday vs. Clemson following a big home win over the Heels last Thursday and ahead of this tough trip. Duke escaped the Tigers 64-62 as Clemson couldn't get off a clean shot at the buzzer. Luke Kennard had 25 points, the only Blue Devil in double figures, while Grayson Allen was held to eight. Allen has been playing well of late, though. Kennard scored 15 straight Duke points from 12:11 to 4:41 in the second half. Duke has reached 20 wins for the 21^st straight season.

Virginia, which is also a game behind the Heels, might have been caught looking ahead to this one Sunday as the Wahoos were upset 80-78 in double overtime at rival Virginia Tech - a win that probably stamps the Hokies' ticket to the Big Dance. Virginia has now lost three conference road games against unranked foes this season (also Pittsburgh and Syracuse). UVA blew a 14-point second-half lead vs. Virginia Tech and allowed the tying tip-in with one second in regulation. This is the only scheduled meeting between Virginia and Duke. They played once last year and the Blue Devils won 63-62 at home on a banked-in buzzer-beater by Allen.

Key trends: The Blue Devils are 2-8-1 ATS in their past 11 on the road. The Wahoos are 14-5-1 ATS in their past 20 at home. UVA is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

I'm leaning: Virginia.

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