Free NBA Picks: Saturday, April 14, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping

by Alan Matthews - 4/13/2018

When the 2017-18 NBA season began, the Golden State Warriors were the favorites to win the Western Conference again and the Cleveland Cavaliers were the same in the East. So in that regard, nothing has changed. Yet at the same time, plenty has with both the Warriors and Cavaliers looking very vulnerable and neither even its conference's top seed. Now the Dubs are just +100 to win the West, barely ahead of top-seeded Houston. Cleveland is +125 in the East, barely ahead of top-seeded Toronto. It's also nice to see some new blood in the postseason with the likes of Minnesota (had the longest drought in the NBA), New Orleans and Philadelphia. Here's a look at Saturday's series openers.

No. 7 Spurs at No. 2 Warriors ( -8, 206)

A 3 p.m. ET tip on ABC and it looks like the marquee matchup in the first round. If Steph Curry and Kawhi Leonard were healthy, it absolutely would be. However, Curry's expected to miss the first round, while I have no idea what's going on with Leonard. It wouldn't surprise me if he never played for the Spurs again or if he showed up on the court Saturday. So, so strange. Clearly if Leonard had played more than nine games this season, the Spurs wouldn't be the seventh seed and would have continued their streak of 50-win seasons.

San Antonio is not a good road team, losing its eighth straight away from home on Wednesday (14-27 overall), 122-98 in New Orleans. That had to be disappointing to Gregg Popovich knowing a win could have avoided the Warriors and landed an easier first-round foe like perhaps the Trail Blazers. I think the best possible thing that could have happened to Golden State was getting trashed 119-79 in Utah on Tuesday night. I'm sure Steve Kerr has his players' attention now. The 40-point loss was the largest margin of defeat for the Warriors under Kerr. Golden State won the season series 3-1 but lost the most recent game, 89-75 in San Antonio on March 19. Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson were all out, and Draymond Green left in the second quarter.

Key trends: The favorite is 6-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings. The "over/under" is 5-1 in the past six in Oakland.

Early lean: Warriors and under.

No. 8 Wizards at No. 1 Raptors (-8, 210.5)

Tips at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Raptors have never made the NBA Finals and the Eastern Conference Finals just once, but they won a franchise-record 59 games this season to claim the conference's top seed for the first time. Toronto also had by far the best point differential in the East at plus-7.8. It tied for the NBA's best home mark at 34-7 with Houston. The Raptors did lose their finale Wednesday night in overtime in Miami, but that game meant nothing for Toronto - although all the starters played. One thing to monitor was key reserve Fred VanVleet leaving with 1:32 left in regulation with some sort of injury. That would be big as VanVleet has become a very valuable piece.

I'm presuming the Wizards were hoping to rise to No. 7 in the East, avoid Toronto and get injury-ravaged Boston. However, the Wizards lost their finale Wednesday at terrible Orlando, 101-92, and finished the season dropping five of six. Washington was just 5-for-25 in the fourth quarter vs. the Magic in scoring 17 points. A win would have moved the Wiz to seventh as it turned out, but they opted to rest John Wall in the second of a back-to-back. That could haunt the team. The Wiz and Raptors split four meetings this season.

Key trends: The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings in Toronto. The under is 8-3 in the previous 11 meetings.

Early lean: Wizards and under.

No. 6 Heat at No. 3 76ers (-7, 212)

This is the most appealing East first-round matchup in my mind. Game 1 tips at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. You know how some college coaches don't want their teams to be unbeaten or on a long winning streak entering the NCAA Tournament? They prefer to get a loss out of the way as a wake-up call/teaching moment. I wonder if 76ers coach Brett Brown prefers that his club not be on a franchise-record 16-game winning streak. I'm stunned how little the 76ers have missed Joel Embiid since he went down with an eye injury. Embiid, by the way, is not expecting to be ready for Saturday but hasn't ruled it out. Great story Wednesday in Philly's 130-95 blowout of Milwaukee as rookie Markelle Fultz, who barely played this year due to injury/yips, became the youngest player in NBA history (19 years, 317 days) with a triple-double with 13 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds. He could be a major weapon off the bench.

As of Tuesday, Miami could have finished anywhere from No. 6-8 in the East, but the Heat knocked off the Raptors in overtime on Wednesday and a few other results went their way to move them up to sixth. Wayne Ellington, a Philly native, scored a career-high 32 points while setting Miami's single-season record for 3-pointers (227) in the win over Toronto. Goran Dragic sat out Wednesday with a sore knee but is fully expected to be ready Saturday. The Heat and 76ers split four close games this season.

Key trends: The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. The over is 9-3 in the Heat's previous 12 on the road.

Early lean: Heat and over.

No. 6 Pelicans at No. 3 Trail Blazers (-5.5, 217)

It's a 10:30 p.m. ET tip on ESPN. The NBA playoffs are better with Anthony Davis in them; in his lone previous appearance in 2015, the Pelicans were swept by Golden State. Davis won't win NBA MVP this season but will get plenty of votes and absolutely better be first-team All-NBA as he carried this team once DeMarcus Cousins went down. Davis will qualify to receive a supermax extension once he earns All-NBA. He averaged 28.1 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.6 blocks this season at age 25. The Pelicans closed on a five-game winning streak, four of those by double digits. The X-factor to this series? Rajon Rondo. He has tons of playoff experience, and if Rondo can play in this series like the did early in Round 1 last year vs. Boston for the Bulls before getting hurt then the Pels can pull the upset.

Portland won the Northwest Division title and claimed the No. 3 seed Wednesday night by slowing the scorching-hot Jazz, 102-93, to end a four-game losing streak. Damian Lillard had 36 points and 10 assists. The Blazers secured home-court advantage for the first round for the first time since 2009. Will the team have part-time starting small forward Maurice Harkless for this series? He had arthroscopy on his left knee March 28 but hasn't been ruled out for the entire first round yet. Seems like no chance he can play here. These teams split four regular-season meetings.

Key trends: The Pelicans are 2-6 ATS in the past eight in Portland. The over is 5-1 in Portland's past six after a win.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

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Free NBA Picks: Saturday, April 14, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping

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