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Free NBA Picks: Saturday, April 21, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping


by - 4/20/2018

Russell Westbrook Oklahoma City Thunder

Unless you have been living in a cave for a while, you surely know that the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule within the next few weeks on potentially legalizing sports gambling across the country. Most believe the state of New Jersey will win its case and that gambling will be legalized in some form. Why do I bring this up? Major League Baseball and the NBA are in discussions to divest their financial interests in daily fantasy sports, and I assure you this has to do with potential legalized gambling. NBA commissioner Adam Silver has been front-and-center pushing for it to be legalized and for his league to get a small cut of each bet. Stay tuned. Here are Saturday's playoff games.

Game 4: 76ers at Heat (+3, 214.5)

A 2:30 p.m. ET start on TNT. So either the 76ers were lying the entire time, or Joel Embiid is really persuasive. The All-Star big man wasn't supposed to play in Thursday's Game 3 in Miami but was cleared not long before tipoff and led Philadelphia's 128-108 rout of the Heat to take a 2-1 series lead and home-court advantage back. Embiid, wearing a cool black mask (everything that cat does is cool), wasn't limited minutes-wise at all as he played 30 and had 23 points, seven rebounds, four assists and three blocks. I don't much like the 76ers, but they are fun to watch when he and Ben Simmons are together. That team is winning at least one title in the next five years assuming good health. Simmons was great again with 19 points, 12 rebounds, seven assists and four steals. This is why you tank in the NBA!

I don't know what's up with the Heat in terms of center Hassan Whiteside. Clearly, the team made a huge mistake in giving him that huge extension because Coach Erik Spoelstra just won't play the guy. Whiteside was in for only 13 minutes in Game 3 and dominated by Embiid. Goran Dragic had a nice game with 23 points and eight assists. Expectedly, Dwyane Wade came crashing back to earth after a huge Game 2 with just eight points on 2-for-10 shooting.

Key trends: The Heat are 1-5 against the spread in their past six at home. Philly is 5-1 ATS in its past six on the road. The "over/under" is 4-1 in the Heat's past five vs. the East and in the Sixers' previous five overall.

Early lean: 76ers and over.

Game 4: Trail Blazers at Pelicans (-7, 216)

A 5 p.m. ET tip on TNT. If you would have told me before the series that one team was going to sweep here, it wouldn't have shocked me but I would have presumed it would have been West No. 3 Portland and not No. 6 New Orleans. Well, the Pelicans can finish off the Blazers on Saturday following 119-102 victory Thursday - the margin of victory has gotten bigger in each series. Since Nikola Mirotic shaved his beard, the Pelicans haven't lost a game. He was great in Game 3 with 30 points and eight rebounds. Anthony Davis chipped in 28 points and 11 rebounds. Only two players in NBA history have averaged 30 points per game in the playoffs: Davis (30.1 ppg in seven) and Michael Jordan (33.4 in 179).

Once again, Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo were better than Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Lillard has simply not looked right for a few weeks and was 5-for-14 with a whopping eight turnovers and a team-worst minus-24. I wonder if he's hiding an injury. Jusuf Nurkic, a pretty good player, was a non-factor again with five points in 20 minutes. The Pelicans are the fifth 6 seed or lower to win the first three games of a playoff series. The other four all swept. Make it five, although I'll say the Blazers play desperate and at least lose inside the number.

Key trends: The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their past six. The Pels have covered eight straight. The over is 24-9 in New Orleans' previous 33 at home.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

Game 3: Rockets at Timberwolves (+5, 214)

This gets under way at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN and it's likely going to be a madhouse at the Target Center in the city's first home playoff game since the Wolves won Game 5 of the 2004 Western Conference Finals over a Lakers team that had future Hall of Famers Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone and Gary Payton (latter two were ring-chasing by that point). The Lakers would close it out at home in Game 6.

The Wolves couldn't steal Game 1 even though no Rocket played well beside James Harden and Clint Capela. They couldn't steal Game 2 even though Harden had one of his worst games as a Rocket, shooting 2-for-18 (tied worst percentage in any game since arriving in Houston) and 0-for-10 from deep. Yet Houston won anyway, 102-82. Chris Paul, not very good in Game 1, had 27 points and eight assists. Gerald Green blew up off the bench with 21 points and 12 rebounds. Frankly, all the blame for the Wolves trailing 2-0 belongs to Karl-Anthony Towns. If you held an NBA draft today of every player, Towns goes in the Top 10. He had just two single-digit games in the regular season. Towns followed up his eight-point Game 1 with just five in Game 2! He took the same amount of shots in each: nine. Either he doesn't have the killer instinct or Tom Thibodeau doesn't know how to coach offense. That's ridiculous. Houston was 2-0 in Minnesota during the season.

Key trends: The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their past four on the road. The over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Minnesota.

Early lean: Rockets and over.

Game 3: Thunder at Jazz (-4.5, 207)

A 10 p.m. ET tip on ESPN. How freaking good is Donovan Mitchell? I watched the entirety of Game 2 between these teams on Wednesday and Mitchell, the 13th overall pick in the 2017 draft, was unstoppable offensively in the second half with crazy floaters, reverse layups, you name it - while playing with a bruised foot that required an MRI on Monday. He finished with 28 points in Utah's 102-95 upset to even the series at 1-1. There's no longer any question in my mind that Mitchell goes No. 1 overall if you redraft. He might not win Rookie of the Year, but what a steal. Derrick Favors had career playoff bests of 20 points and 16 rebounds, and Ricky Rubio had 22 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in the first playoff win of his career.

Utah's "Big 3" was way better than OKC's. Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony all forced terrible shots in the fourth quarter, when Oklahoma City was outscored 28-16. Westbrook was 7-for-19 for 19 points with 13 assists and nine rebounds. George, so good in Game 1, was only 6-for-21 and finished with 18 points - the Thunder were outscored by eight with him on the court. Anthony is simply a one-trick pony these days and not great at that any longer: shooting. He was 6-for-18 for 17 points. Still, the Thunder might have won had Steven Adams not fouled out in the fourth. He didn't have huge numbers because he was limited by fouls but clearly made a huge difference while in there.

Key trends: The Jazz are 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home. The under is 8-0 in the past eight meetings in Utah.

Early lean: Thunder and under.

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