Betting the Super Bowl Total 2019
There is a chance - a pretty decent one, perhaps - that we will see the highest total ever in a Super Bowl this year. Twice before we have seen a total of 57, with the teams going "over" once and "under" the other time. This year the total has opened at 57.5 and has flirted with 58. The general betting public loves the over and loves both offenses, so it is certainly possible that this number will set a new record. But when it comes to betting the Super Bowl total, we don't care about setting records. We care about making profits. So, let's break the matchup down with a view at making our wallets bulge, shall we?
The Patriots have not been very good at going over the total this year. In fact, up until the playoffs where they have gone over in both games, they were downright lousy. They went under the total in 11 of their 16 games. They have a scoring offense that ranked fourth in the league, and the public obviously likes the offense, so they are going to tend to go over. The defense provides an interesting situation, though. They give up a lot of yards, ranking 21st in the league in total yards, and they are worse against the pass. But they are a unit that tends to bend more than it breaks, so they allow just the seventh-fewest points in the league. The combination of a productive offense that draws in bettors and a defense that is better than it appears has been a recipe for going under.
When you break it down further, it is really a tale of two parts - they went over four of their first seven totals but then just one of the remaining nine. They faced five totals higher than 50, and they went over just once. That was in that crazy game they played against Kansas City - the first of two crazy games against them. The total was their highest of the year, 59.5, but the teams combined for 83 points to shatter that mark.
New England was consistent regardless of where they played. They went under the total in six of eight games at home and in three of five on the road. Regardless of where they were playing, then, they were a team that the public didn't have a good sense of - and the books were happy to exploit that repeatedly.
Los Angeles Rams
Again, the Rams weren't nearly as good at going over totals as you might expect - though better than their opponents here. Despite having the second-best scoring offense and a fairly dismal defense that ranked only 20th in points allowed, the team went over the total in only half of their games. They went over in three of their first eight but improved to go over in five of their final eight.
For the Rams, it really mattered where they played. They haven't been in L.A. for long, but they obviously really like it there. They went over the total in six of eight games at home, including their last four. But away from home they went over only twice. And the two games they went over in were in a dome in New Orleans and on a mild October day in Seattle. So, it's probably good for the sake of the Rams that this game is being played in climate-controlled conditions in Atlanta.
The Rams faced some seriously huge numbers this year, facing totals of 50 or more 10 times, including a league-wide season-high total of 63.5 in that crazy epic against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, they didn't provide any more clarity for us in these games than they did overall, going over five times in the 10 games. Away from home the over was 2-4 in the higher spread games, so perhaps that is useful here.
Since both teams have Top 5 scoring offenses, perhaps it would be useful to look at how both teams fared against the other Top 5 offenses this year - Kansas City in first, followed by New Orleans in third and Indianapolis in fifth. Both of the Super Bowl teams played two of those squads in the regular season. New England went over against both Kansas City and Indianapolis - in consecutive weeks, no less. Both games were in Foxboro. And the Rams went over against Kansas City and in New Orleans against the Saints. Those were the two biggest totals numbers L.A. faced all year - 63.5 and 57. The 59.5 against Kansas City was the highest the Patriots faced all year, but against the Colts the total was a surprisingly modest 49.5. That game came early enough, though, that the public wasn't yet really believing in either offense entirely.
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