Expert Props Picks for the 2019 Super Bowl: Individual Wide Receiver Odds
When we look at the receivers in the Super Bowl, we obviously have to look at the guys throwing to them. And that makes it challenging. Both quarterbacks have not been as productive in the postseason as we are used to. Tom Brady has exceeded his passing average in the playoff games, but he has had just one touchdown pass per game - below his regular-season average of 1.8. Jared Goff averaged 293 yards and two touchdowns per game in the regular season but is at just 252 yards a game in the playoffs, and he has just one touchdown in two playoff games. So, when we are trying to find value in receiver props, we have to think about what we expect from the quarterbacks as well. With that in mind, here's a look at some of the more interesting individual receiver props available right now at Bovada :
Robert Woods - over/under 74.5 passing yards: Woods had at least two catches in all 18 games he has appeared in this year. He averaged 76 yards per game in the regular season but just 51 in the playoffs and only 33 in the last game against the Saints. He has gone over this number just once in the last eight games, and the passing attack is not near its peak right now. The under feels like the right side here, and at -115 it's not unattractive.
Brandin Cooks - o/u 70.5: Cooks had 107 yards against the Saints, so he is in good form right now. But he had gone under this total in his previous six outings. The under at -120 is the smarter bet in all likelihood. But I can't shake the feeling that Cooks is going to be driven to shine against his former team and that he has knowledge from practicing against the New England secondary that will help him. I'd gamble on the over, but it would just feel like a gamble.
Julian Edelman - o/u 84.5: Edelman averaged 71 yards per game in his 12 regular-season games and he went over this number only four times, so based on that this number would seem high. But he had 151 yards against the Chargers, and 96 more against the Chiefs, so he has really stepped his game up. And he has gone over this total in four of his last six games. He and Brady are dialed in, and I expect the Patriots to go to the air early and often in this one. The over is pricy at -125, but it is still the correct side.
Rob Gronkowski - o/u 54.5: Gronk has shown some consistency on the surface - 52.5 yards per game over his 13 regular-season games and 52 yards per game in the playoffs. But has been a far less consistent year than that in reality. In his fourth last game of the season, for example, he had 107 yards against Miami. But then he averaged just 15 yards per game in his last three games, including no yards on three dropped passes against the Bills. He's a true force still when he is mentally checked into a game, but that hasn't always been the case. In the fourth quarter and overtime against the Chiefs, though, he looked like the beast of old. It was like he was reminded of what he can do. And with the possibility that this is the end of the line for him - as a Patriot or maybe in the league - perhaps he will be driven to show that again here. If he wants to have a big day, he will - the Rams don't have the weapons to contain him. He has gone over this number six times in 15 games, so he is capable. I am bullish, but at -130 for the over I won't be betting heavily.
Chris Hogan - o/u 40.5: Hogan averaged 35.5 yards per game in the regular season and has had 13 and 45 yards in the playoffs. In his last nine games, he has gone over this total four times - though with only a maximum of 68 yards in a game in that time, so he isn't crushing it - and he has had no yards three times. He doesn't feel like an integral piece right now, and I would lean to the under - though there isn't a lot of value because the numbers are fairly tight.
James White - o/u 55.5: White averaged just 26.6 yards per game in the regular season on the ground as a running back but averaged 20.3 yards more than that per game through the air. He's a running back who Brady prefers to throw to than hand off to. And in the playoffs, he had 49 yards on just four catches against the Chiefs and 97 yards on 15 catches against the Chargers in his best game of the year. Brady is comfortable with him, and he has gone over this number eight times in 18 games. I expect the Pats to go through the air early and often because the dome will make it very comfortable for their attack. I like the over here. Unfortunately, so does everyone else - it sits at -130.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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