Super Bowl Betting: Money Management Most Important Factor for Success
The Super Bowl can be one of the most fun betting days of the year - a celebration of the months of football that has come before it. Or it can be a total disaster - an economic disaster driven by desperation and flawed decision-making. The line between the two can be small, but fortunately you can entirely control how things turn out. You just need some sound Super Bowl betting money management to ensure that you stay on the right track. And that, in turn, just requires you to ask yourself a few questions and to be very honest as you answer them. Do that and your chances of coming out ahead improve dramatically. But what are those few questions? Fear not, brave reader, for we're here to help you out:
What do you want?: At some point when you were growing up, your parents probably told you that you had to have goals. You likely scoffed and stormed into your room like the spoiled brat we all were back then. But they were right, and if you didn't know it then then hopefully you do now. This is true in all of life, but especially so in sports betting. You need to know what you want to accomplish, so you can figure out how you are going to accomplish that. Do you just want to have something to sweat to make the game a little more interesting? Or are you looking to make a big splash? Are you looking for high percentage plays that are likely to pay off, even if they don't pay much? Or are you looking to swing for the fences, accepting a likely loss because of the chance of an epic score? Are you looking to hold out for value, or is it all about having action at any cost? Is this going to be your biggest day of the year, or is it just another Sunday? Do you want to lock in your bets way before game time, or are you more interested in betting at halftime or as the game goes along? Once you know what your goals are, then you can easily figure out things like how much of a bankroll you need, how much time you need to spend handicapping and what you need to be doing, and so on.
What can you do?: By this point in the football season, you should know yourself - your betting strengths and weaknesses. And if you don't know them, then you need to look back at your bets for the year and figure them out. Are you really good at sides but not so strong on totals? Are you good at finding live underdogs but lousy at backing favorites? Are you a props master or a sucker? Once you know what you are good at, you can focus better on what you should be looking for in the Super Bowl. And it goes beyond just what you are good at - it's also about what you are interested in. Over the years, for example, I have learned that I just don't care about totals. Couldn't care less, in fact. They don't interest me at all, picking them seems totally arbitrary to me, and when I am sweating a total it feels like it distracts me from actually enjoying the game. I'm obviously not saying that totals aren't bettable - people do very well focusing almost exclusively on them. I just know that because I don't care I don't need to put my effort into them, and my time can be much better used looking elsewhere. And, because of that lack of interest, and a lack of focus that goes with that, I know that I have a much better chance of success avoiding the totals most days. And success, ultimately, is what it is all about. On the other hand, I have an economics degree and I am a bit of a math geek, so prop bets are always fun for me to break down - so the Super Bowl is like a paid holiday for me.
What can you lose?: You can't effectively make any bet if you haven't accepted the possibility that you could lose all of the money you bet. If you can't live with that, or afford to lose the bet, then you just shouldn't be making the bet. You'll be tense, and you won't be at your best. So, be honest about your bankroll and what you can do with it. There is no right answer here, though - it comes back to your goals. Are you up for the year? Do you want to stay up, or are you looking to let it ride? If you are down on the year, how much more can you safely lose. Dumb bettors bet money they don't have or can't lose, and over the long-term dumb bettors don't win.
What is worth betting?: This is the fun part. Once you have answered those first three questions, then it is time to go shopping. What looks good? How do you think the game is going to play out? How strongly do you believe in your opinion? What is the best way to leverage the opinion while respecting your goals and financial realities? What can you do to maximize the bragging rights you will get with your friends when you win? By answering the other questions first, you can know very quickly which bets make sense, and you can go into the game with the best possible chance for success.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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