Total Touchdown Props for Super Bowl 2019 Betting and Wagering
The focus of so much attention leading into this Super Bowl is on touchdowns. People are dreaming of a lot of points, and they are dreaming of big days from the offenses - especially New England's, it seems, judging by the unbalanced betting action. But how many touchdowns are we likely to see? And, more importantly, how can we profit from that opinion? Here's a look at some of the interesting total touchdown props that Bovada is offering for this Super Bowl:
Total touchdowns - game: The best way to start looking at this number is by looking at the total. That is currently at 57 for the game. There are a few ways to directly hit that number, but the most likely is with six touchdowns and five field goals. That's one way we can look at this number. If six felt like the right number, then we could bet over 5.5 touchdowns, but that is at -230, so there isn't much that is attractive about that. Or we could be under 6.5 touchdowns. That's at +105, but there isn't much margin for error there. The under 7.5 is at -190, so the extra room to breathe is very expensive.
The next way we could look at it is by looking at touchdowns per game. The Rams were second best in the NFL, averaging 3.6 touchdowns per game this season. They have improved slightly, averaging 3.7 in their last three games, but they had only two touchdowns in their win over the Saints. The Patriots had 3.4 touchdowns per game on the season but had five against the Chiefs and have averaged the same five per game in their last three games. So, it depends here on how you want to apply those numbers. If you want to go with the season averages, then that would give us seven touchdowns. Over 6.5 is at -135, which is getting to be a more reasonable price. Under 7.5 at -190 isn't any more attractive here than it was earlier. If you think that more recency is relevant, then the three-game trends would point us to the neighborhood of 8.7 touchdowns. If you buy that then you will like the over 8.5 price of +250. But the last game the teams combined for seven touchdowns, which puts us more into those uglier numbers.
So, what do we make of all of that? If I had to pick numbers, I would peg the Patriots for four touchdowns and the Rams for three - worse than their season average but better than last game. That means we are in that seven range again, and we have proven that that isn't hugely attractive to bet. I would take the over 6.5 at -135 if I had to choose one, but I'll be looking elsewhere for better value.
Total touchdowns - Patriots: I feel pretty solid about that number of four touchdowns. They are in strong form right now, this game certainly isn't going to be too big for them, there is a decent chance that this game will be played at an open and up-tempo pace, and the Rams defense isn't exactly a wall. And, as luck would have it, four is a pretty bettable number. Over 3.5 is a reasonable -110. And the over 4.5 is at a fat +240, so I would likely find a way to bet the two props so that the upside is attractive but the four still produces a profit.
Total touchdowns - Rams: I'm worried about the Rams not being loose and worried that they are a long way removed from their offensive best. But that best is so impressive, and they have had an extra week to prepare and to get healthy. And they aren't exactly facing a world-class defense, either. I picked three as the most likely number, but I would lean over than rather than under. But over 3.5 is only at +110, which doesn't pack enough value to make me want to throw my money their way.
First score of the game for the Rams?: This isn't one of the props that technically fits here, but it didn't really fit anywhere else, either, and it's worth looking at. A touchdown as the first score for the Rams is very heavily favored at -190. That just seems insane to me. This offense hasn't been dialed in lately, and the quarterback is young and facing pressure in this game like he has never seen. There is no one on this offense aside from Brandin Cooks that knows what the team is in for, and even most of the coaching staff is new to this challenge. Over the longer term of this game, I feel like the offense will probably settle in and be at least okay. But I could definitely see them be shaky early and be forced to settle for three when seven would be more attractive. A field goal or safety is at +150. That feels really juicy to me - among the more attractive on the board.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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