College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Nov. 14-15
Another week of football and another week of football line moves!
This week there are actually fewer larger line moves both in college and pro football. As to why, it would appear the betting market is largely satisfied the numbers are accurate from betting websites and apps.
However, we still found enough to whet your betting appetite with free picks this weekend.
CFB – (143) FLORIDA STATE at (144) N.C. STATE 7:30 ET ACCN
After a couple of solid performances, Florida State is back to playing lousy football again. The Seminoles have been drubbed by 32 points at Louisville and 24 to Pittsburgh since upsetting North Carolina. N.C. State has also fallen a couple of times recently, yet they lost their starting quarterback, Devin Leary, and are still adjusting. Those doing college football betting have chased the Wolfpack from -7 to -10.5, having zero trust in Florida State. The ‘Noles also have seen players depart in the last week for various reasons, which is an ominous sign. At the moment, N.C. State is still competing, and it seems FSU is checking out.
Betting Trend – 88% backing N.C. State
Doug’s Take – N.C. State covers
CFB – (155) MIAMI-FL at (156) VIRGINIA TECH 12:00 ET ESPN
Miami still has hopes of reaching the ACC Championship and will have to knock off Virginia Tech to keep the candle lit. The Hurricanes were thought to have an elite defense. That has not been the case, especially on the road, where they have allowed 39 PPG in three tries. Since coach Frank Beamer retired, the Virginia Tech defense has become a sad state of affairs in giving up 31.6 PPG this season and 459.6 YPG (95th nationally). The total has expanded like singer Vince Gill's waistline from 62.5 to 67.5 points. The opening total might have been too low. However, now, the adjusted number seems too high. With the Hurricanes 8-1 “Under” versus teams averaging 5.9 or more yards a play, backing a lower score for this ESPN college football encounter.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Play Under
CFB – (185) OREGON at (186) WASHINGTON STATE 7:00 ET FOX
This Pac-12 matchup offers intrigue, but whether the contest turns out that way will be determined. Oregon played about as expected against Stanford, putting up almost 500 yards of offense in winning 35-14. Washington State was the surprise with a new head coach and systems and stunned Oregon State on the road 38-28 as field-goal underdogs. Nick Rolovich is the new Cougars head man, coming from Hawai’I, and he’s added a running game for a more balanced approach. That was not enough to impress bettors, who bumped up the Cougars from +8 to +10.5. Though always one to consider a streak, the Ducks look too strong in the trenches and end their 0-10 ATS losing streak to Wazzou.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Oregon
Doug’s Take – Oregon covers
NFL – (259) PHILADELPHIA at (260) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOX
The NFC East is a dumpster fire in need of rain from Hurricane Eta. No team has a .500 record. And other than Philadelphia, none are likely to reach that benchmark. Instead of trying to figure out the side for NFL betting, the total is what moved, going from 41 to 44.5. The New York Giants next to last scoring offense at 18.7 PPG is problematic, but QB Daniel Jones is a – turnover machine – and I’ll count on one or more of his miscues to lead directly to Eagles points for the Over. And don’t be shocked if Carson Wentz contributes to the same fund.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Play Over
NFL – (261) TAMPA BAY at (262) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX
Tampa Bay laid an egg at home against New Orleans an ostrich would be proud of. The Buccaneers look to regroup on the road against Carolina, who has dropped four straight. Seeing the total jumped from 47 to 50.5, my initial thought was taking the Under for NFL football picks until doing more research. It starts with Tampa Bay 9-2 Over in road games when the total is 45.5 or higher. With Tom Brady extra motivated to rebound from one the worst performances of his career, the Bucs are 6-0 Over away vs. defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards a game. Toss in the Panthers’ are 6-0 Over after a contest where 60 or more total points were scored, and a higher score makes the most sense.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Play Over
NFL – (273) BALTIMORE at (274) NEW ENGLAND 8:20 ET NBC
The Sunday nightcap finds yet another total heading upward. This AFC total was jettisoned from 40 to 43.5. No doubt, New England finally scoring points on Monday night influenced bettors, along with how poorly their pass defense played in allowing 27 points to the winless Jets. Nevertheless, Baltimore’s defense is not like Gang Green’s, and those Patriots touchdowns of last week will turn into field goals or punts. Lamar Jackson played somewhat better last Sunday, just not enough to get excited about him in this skirmish. With the Ravens 16-6 Under versus teams averaging 350 or more yards a game, let’s make a 24-16 Baltimore call and take the Under.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Play Under
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has -21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 87 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 24 Handicapper of the Month Awards. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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