College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Oct. 24-25
It’s that time again as we get close to the start of the weekend football action, and here we are again looking at some of the biggest line moves.
Honestly, I find line movement fascinating when studying the odds. You have almost a whole week to see why they are moving, trying to understand what football bettors are thinking and what the betting percentages mean.
On tap for you are six line moves, along with the betting trends and of course free picks!
CFB – (313) FLORIDA STATE at (314) LOUISVILLE 12:00 ET ESPN3
With Louisville having lost four in a row and Florida State showing signs of life after their upset of then-No. 5 North Carolina, support for the Cardinals is crumbling. Louisville opened at -6.5 and has slid to -4, according to the latest college football odds. The insertion of Travis Jordan at quarterback has bolstered the Seminoles, and in turn has fired up the defense to play harder. Louisville’s passing offense has ground to a halt in averaging 157 YPG after posting more than 300 yards in their first two contests. Not crazy about the lower number, but I’d rather take the points than give them.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Florida State
Doug’s Take – Florida State covers
CFB – (345) BAYLOR at (346) TEXAS 3:30 ET ESPN3
Texas is completely unreliable, and Baylor has played two games this season because of you know, that virus thing. The betting action is telling us the Longhorns are a bigger issue than Covid, as the Longhorns have been steered from -11.5 to -9. It is very difficult to trust coach Tom Herman as a home favorite as he is only 4-8 ATS in that role wearing the burnt orange. Nevertheless, the Bears have suffered more starts and stops than traffic in downtown Dallas. And having a new coach in Dave Aranda, they just cannot develop continuity. The Horns won’t make it easy, but single digits are easier to work in this Big 12 battle.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Baylor
Doug’s Take – Texas covers
CFB – (353) AUBURN at (354) OLE MISS 12:00 ET SECN
The total climbed enormously from 65 to 71.5 in the SEC showdown. Ole Miss was held to 21 points last week, but that will happen to you when throwing seven interceptions. Back home, the Rebels will be in more comfortable surroundings. And as we have seen this Auburn defense is not a vintage group, conceding 28.3 PPG in the past three outings. Mississippi might not get their average of 36.5 points, but they will come close. Auburn has an inconsistent quarterback in Bo Nix, but the Rebels will likely help him out. Mississippi plays a different brand of defense, like almost none, in allowing 47 PPG and 580 YPG. Expect Auburn to have their best offensive day of the season. With these squads 10-2 ‘Over’ in Oxford, the higher score should be the right choice for college football picks.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Under
Doug’s Take – Play Over
NFL – (463) BUFFALO at (464) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has reverted to his old ways and looks like he needs glasses to complete passes in the Bills’ last two setbacks. Fear not, help is on the way for Allen and company, and it’s called the New York Jets. Gang Green is 0-6 SU and ATS, and head coach Adam Gase is a dead man walking at this juncture. With this in mind, the Flyboys have flown from +9.5 to +12 point home underdogs. Though it is incredibly tempting to take a dozen points on a home pooch, Buffalo should be angry to pound somebody, and the Jets are 3-11 ATS versus division opponents the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Buffalo
Doug’s Take – Buffalo covers
NFL – (469) SAN FRANCISCO at (470) NEW ENGLAND 4:25 ET CBS
Without doing hours of research on NFL odds, one thing we can tell you is: it has been some time since New England has fallen three points as home favorite unless it was the last game of the season and they were sitting players. The Patriots were at -5 and now sit at -2 against a beat-up San Francisco squad. The Pats were off-kilter in their upset loss against Denver, having missed a great deal of practice time. The 49ers showed resolve in taking it to the L.A. Rams last week and look to continue down that same path with Jimmy Garoppolo facing his former team. Cam Newton didn’t look 100 percent last week. Still, Bill Belichick losing back-to-back home games and the point spread this low, have to back the Patriots.
Betting Trend – 59% backing San Francisco
Doug’s Take – New England covers
NFL - (479) JACKSONVILLE at (480) L.A. CHARGERS 4:25 ET CBS
This AFC affair has two clubs on extended losing streaks, with Jacksonville 0-5 and the Chargers of Los Angeles at 0-4. Both defenses have been at fault, with the Jaguars permitting over 31 PPG and the Bolts 28 PPG, including unable to hold a pair of 17-point leads in their last two contests. The betting action is decidedly favoring the team from SoCal, and they were pushed from -7.5 to -9. That sounds like a lot of points to hand out for a team that has not won since its opener, but the Jacksonville defense is that bad and oddly enough, the home team is 31-6 ATS against the AFC South.
Betting Trend – 83% backing L.A. Chargers
Doug’s Take – L.A. Chargers cover
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has -21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 86 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 24 Handicapper of the Month Awards. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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