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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 10/26/2022

by Spencer Toth - 10/26/2022

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Kyrie Irving Brooklyn Nets

Milwaukee remains the only undefeated team in the Eastern Conference, sitting alone at the summit. This season, I will be breaking down each Milwaukee Bucks game, and giving my best bets for the contest. It won’t always be favoring the Bucks, but over the year there will be a profit turned. Using in-depth knowledge of both the Milwaukee Bucks, and the entire NBA, we will have an edge on the market. Let’s get into it.

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The Bucks sit 2-0 this year after beating the 76ers, 90-88, and the Rockets, 125-105. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the scoring in both games, putting up 21, and 44 points, respectively. He has demonstrated the capability to lead this Bucks franchise nightly, and in the long run, to a championship. The next test for the Bucks is the always dangerous Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are entering the contest as 4-point underdogs in Milwaukee, with the total set at 233 points. Leading the way for the Nets is one of the more formidable ‘Big 3s’ in The Association. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have been cooking it up in the backcourt for years, and in steps Ben Simmons. The transition to Brooklyn has not been a smooth one for Simmons, as he’s put up 5.7 PPG, 7.0 APG, and has fouled out in two of the first three games. Durant and Irving have not been able to pick up the slack, with the Nets posting a 1-2 record this year.

On Wednesday night, there will be intriguing matchups up and down the court. First, is Jrue Holiday vs Irving. Holiday is a key member of the Bucks starting 5 and is the primary defender for the often star point guards Milwaukee faces. Irving is no exception, as his dribbling abilities coupled with his passing game makes him a tough out every night. We won’t get into his off-court antics. However, on the court, this man is undeniably among the NBA elite. However, Holiday has the tools to outwork Irving on the defensive end. And while his ankles might get broken once or twice, Holiday will be able to limit Irving’s effectiveness.

The second matchup that could decide this contest is Simmons vs Antetokounmpo. At power forward, Antetokounmpo often has tough defensive matchups, but Simmons is a different breed. It is no secret that Simmons has struggled on the offensive end throughout his career, but he still has a job in the NBA thanks to his work on the defensive end. Locking up Antetokounmpo will be Simmons’ primary goal. And if he can stay out of foul trouble, he has the tools to shut down the former 2-time MVP.

Now that Antetokounmpo has been accounted for by the Bucks, and Irving for the Nets, that leaves one key player unaccounted for; Durant. Thanks to the nagging Khris Middleton injury, Durant faces an easier matchup against either Grayson Allen or Jevon Carter. While both have their defensive qualities, neither will have been forced to be matched up with former MVP-caliber players such as Durant. Durant should be able to cook in the post and find open shots throughout the game. With Irving against Holiday on the offensive end, I expect the Nets to run through Durant for a majority of the game. There is an argument for putting former DPOY Antetokounmpo on Durant, but the length disadvantage that would leave elsewhere on the court makes this an unwise option.

Considering the total is set at a lofty 233 points, I expected the O/U for player props to be higher than usual, but Durant’s points prop sits at 29.5 points, a mark he has eclipsed twice this season. The first bet to make in this contest is for Durant to hit Over his total points against the Bucks. I’m not saying the Nets will necessarily win. However, considering the matchups elsewhere on the court, I expect the Nets to lean on Durant more than usual on Wednesday. Of course, he could have an off-night shooting, which is always a danger with props. However, the odds he gets 30+ outweigh the risk.

The second bet for tonight is the total itself. Last year, these two teams met four times in the regular season, going Over and Under this total two times each way. However, that was with a healthy Middleton for the Bucks, and there was no Simmons for the Nets. These two key differences make me happy to take the Under 233 in this marquee matchup. The lack of offense and powerful defensive skills of Simmons should lead to a lower pace of play, and fewer high-quality chances at both ends of the court. Middleton provides another option on the offensive end and gives Antetokounmpo a reliable option down the stretch. While it’s never fun betting on Unders, especially with Antetokounmpo, Irving, and Durant on the court, it certainly feels as though this falls into the category of ‘must bet’ tonight.

Pick: Kevin Durant Over 29.5 Points 2 Units

Pick: Nets vs Bucks Under 233 Points 3 Units

ML Record: 0-0

Spread Record: 0-1 (Down 2 Units)

Total Record: 0-1 (Down 2 Units)

Player Props Record: 0-0

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