NCAA Football Predictions: Week 11 Report, Best Bets and Picks
Last week was one hell of a week in college football. As we know, I'm very persistent on backing TCU this season as they have been stellar on both sides of the ball. Going into the match-up against Texas, TCU was a 7.5-point underdog and came out with an upset victory. If I hadn’t been sick last week, this game would have been one of the games that I would have given you guys to take, as TCU is very underrated and people haven't given them enough credit due to the various backup quarterbacks that they have faced.
I’m extremely excited for this week as there is some unbelievable value in the market right now. It almost feels unreal to grab some of the teams listed down below at such great lines. Spoiler alert: TCU is listed down below at a line that seems too good to be true. I haven't been this excited to watch these teams play down below on a Saturday in a while, obviously aside from TCU.
Without further delay, let's take a look at Week 12 as there are some valuable games on the schedule. I just want to say that it is important that we grab these lines early as the market will adjust as retail bettors start placing bets later on in the week. I recommend taking these lines ASAP and grabbing them again if you get them at a better value later on in the week.
Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Game 1: Washington State vs Arizona
Line: Washington -3.5
Jayden de Laura played absolutely great football. He looked like a top-tier quarterback against UCLA. He was able to get a statement win for the Arizona program against powerhouse UCLA. A lot of people had that game being a blowout, as UCLA is a solid football team, with a great offense, and assumed that de Laura would have made any mistakes UCLA would have walked away with this one. De Laura has been inconsistent as he is hit or miss with his play at the quarterback position. WSU walks into this game as 3.5-point favorites against Arizona. This is an emotional game as de Laura will play against his former team, and he has already stated that he is taking his game personal. The problem is that I don't value de Laura as a good quarterback just because of how volatile and inconsistent he is. Therefore, I will be fading this Arizona team against a WSU team that has a secondary that ranks top 30 in the country.
Pick: Washington State -3.5
Game 2: Navy vs UCF
Line: UCF -16.5
Navy was pretty impressive against Notre Dame. They were able to cover the spread of 17.5 as underdogs and played more up-tempo than they are used to. UCF has been a pretty solid football team thus far, posting a 7-3 record. UCF has been a high-scoring team these past couple games as they have gone over the total three times out of the last five games. However, Navy is a really slow-paced team. They control the clock and run the ball. This seems like a huge spread after the performance that Navy put on last week against Notre Dame. Navy is 4-0 against the spread in road games and 6-0 when an underdog by more than 12 points, so this is an absolute steal. UCF hasn’t scored more than 35 points in the past four games, so I don't see them beating Navy by more than three scores. Navy has some big play potential. And, as we saw this previous week, they can push the pace if they have to. For this game we will roll with this Navy team as they should continue the undefeated streak against the spread on the road. The line opened up for Navy at +18.5, and it’s currently at +16.5, so it is important that we grab it as early as possible before it continues to drop.
Pick: Navy +16.5 or better
Game 3: TCU vs Baylor
Line: TCU -2.5
The bookmakers have given us a gift this week as TCU has been given to us at an incredible value. TCU’s spread is currently sitting at -2.5. This team has been on a roll, posting a 10-0 record, remaining one of the few undefeated teams in college football. They are currently fourth in the AP 25 ranking as they are poised to make a College Football Playoff appearance if they continue to cause mayhem. This TCU team is special as it took down Texas this past week and it has claimed football bragging rights in the state of Texas. This Big 12 Conference rivalry is very important as it solidifies TCU’s chances of maintaining a playoff spot with a win. TCU has just been extremely profitable this year, and they will continue to be in this matchup as they are on the road against Baylor. TCU holds an 4-0-1 undefeated record against the spread on the road. This team is stingy on defense and has a great offense that can play very well. And as we saw last week, they are built for these conference rivalries. There's no need to over analyze this game as I'm backing TCU at -2.5. This is a steal of a line for a team that is ranked in the top 4 of the AP 25 and heading into a matchup against an unranked opponent.
Pick: TCU -2.5
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