NCAA Football Predictions: Week 5 Opening Line Report, Best Bets and Picks
Week 3 in College Football was exciting to watch. There were some spreads that were covered that I couldn’t wrap my head around. I always remind myself that these college guys are still kids themselves. Kansas State had a huge upset over Oklahoma, Oregon State almost upset an extremely hyped USC team, and a ranked Kentucky team played a close game with a Northern Illinois team who had no business keeping up with the Wildcats. Everything else looked ordinary to me.
Let’s take a look at this week's upcoming three ATS picks to grab the line value. Week 4 is important in college football as competition starts getting more complex and teams start conference play. We have seen a lot of movement in rankings In the past couple weeks as teams have entered and exited the AP Top 25 at the blink of an eye. Below we have listed some games that everyone will pretty much have their eye on, so it’s important to grab these lines ASAP before the markets start moving. Grab these liens at the prices listed below or at a better price.
Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats are coming off an amazing weekend, upsetting the Oklahoma Sooners, in a game in which they were 14-point underdogs. The Raiders are also coming off a game where they upset a Texas Longhorns team on the road, in a game in which they were 7-point underdogs.
Both teams had stellar weekends, but this weekend coming up it’s all about making a statement. Both teams are walking into this matchup with puffed chests and their confidence in the clouds after winning road games against major Power 5 schools.
After their stellar start to the year, the Wildcats have managed to crack into the AP 25. They will look to make a statement this week. However, I say the Raiders cover this +7.5 point spread. The Raiders have been very strong on offense, moving the ball down the field with efficiency. The Raiders should easily be undefeated, but they couldn’t get it together against a North Carolina State team they were favored to beat by 10.5 points. Let’s look for the Raiders to continue their dominance and cover this spread and potentially even knock the Wildcats out of the AP Top 25, as they have a passing offense that has almost tripled the yards the Wildcats have put up through four games
Pick: Texas Tech +7.5 (-110)
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Baylor Bears
The Bears and Cowboys will square off this weekend in an almost even matchup. Both passing offenses are very similar. However, the Bears have a very strong run game when compared to the Cowboys. The Bears have almost double the rushing yards and eight more rushing touchdowns than the Cowboys. Expect this Bears team to run the ball down the Cowboys throat as they carried the ball 40 times against a pretty strong Iowa State team.
The real betting edge comes in the Bears playing a home game as they’re significantly better in their home environment, not to mention efficiency on converting third and fourth downs. The Bears have converted 48% of third downs and 64% of fourth downs through this season, while the Cowboys have converted 40% of 3rd downs and have yet to convert a fourth down this season.
Let’s roll with the Bears on this game as they’re a threat to move the chains on any downs. Let’s take them to cover their -1.5 spread at home.
Pick: Baylor -1.5 (-110) play up to -3
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Arkansas Razorbacks
I am so happy to see this spread. This is one of the best prices that we are going to get for a Crimson Tide cover the whole season.
The Razorbacks have been a good team to start off the year, getting off to a 3-1 record and absolutely being one of the more dominant offensive teams in the country. They are coming off a tough loss as they lost a nail bitter to Texas A&M.
As we saw, this Crimson Tide team is no joke, as they have a 95% red zone efficiency rate. If you see them inside that 20-yard line, they are almost guaranteed to put points up in that scoreboard. This shouldn’t be a problem for them as they have probably the best quarterback in the nation.
The Razorbacks have 976 yards in 200 rushing attempts, compared to the Crimson Tide's 940 yards on 129 Carries. The Crimson Tide average 7.3 yards per carry, which completely outshines the 4.9 yards per carry the Razorbacks average. This Razorbacks team has been good, but the Crimson Tide are poised to win a National Championship this year and look for them to make a statement. Nick Saban and his teams have a way of out shining SEC opponents in games like this.
Sharp money right now is the Razorbacks, with their +16.5 spread receiving 85% of the money. So big players are in on this spread. As the week goes on, the line will adjust, so grab the Crimson Tide at -17 before the spread gets bigger.
Pick: Alabama -17 (-110) or better
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