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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/12/2023

by Spencer Toth - 1/12/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jimmy Butler Miami Heat

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks game and giving out my best bets for the contest. This will include moneylines, player props, spreads, and totals. And while we won’t always favor the Bucks, the goal is to churn a consistent profit by the end of the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Last night, the Bucks took down the Hawks by a score of 114-105. The Bucks brought a 21-point lead into halftime before the Hawks stormed all the way back to tie it late in the fourth quarter. In the end, the Bucks prevailed on the back of another well-rounded team performance. Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Giannis Antetokounmpo all posted double doubles, while Jrue Holiday chipped in with 27 points. In the last 2 games, Antetokounmpo has averaged just 14.5 PPG, but the Bucks won both contests. If the supporting cast can fill in for their star on off nights, this team will find themselves at the top of the Eastern conference standing once again.

From a betting perspective, we had a perfect night, going 1-0. Our lone win was the Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) ATS. And while the Bucks made us sweat, they got the job done. We also had Trae Young Under 26.5 Points, but the star point guard was ruled out late, and didn’t suit up.

Tonight, the Bucks (27-14) wrap up their 4-game road trip with a 2-game mini series in Miami (22-20). The Heat are in 8th place in the East, and they’re battling to get out of the dreaded play-in tournament. The Heat have finished in the top 6 in each of the last 3 seasons, but injuries have decimated their chances of competing with the Eastern Conference elites. Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, and Duncan Robinson have all missed 10 or more games this year, and the Heat have yet to find consistency in their starting lineup. Tonight, Herro, Kyle Lowry, Robinson, and Caleb Martin are all out, while Bam Adebayo’s status remains uncertain. The fact that the Heat have stayed in a playoff position despite their carousel of lineups is rather impressive, and Erik Spoelstra has done a great job at keeping this team afloat.

In reality, the injuries hurt, but as long as Jimmy Butler suits up, this team will always have a chance. Butler is a menace on both ends of the court and holds this team together with his ‘team first’ mentality. He is averaging 22.1 PPG on over 50% shooting and chipping in with a league-high 2.2 steals per game. His ability to knock down tough shots late in the shot clock throughout his career has allowed him to find success no matter who he is alongside.

For the Bucks, if they can shut down Butler, they will win. The depth players are stretched thin, and the Heat’s slow paced, methodical offense can be disrupted through Butler. Holiday is still one of the elite defenders in the league. And with the guard support out on Thursday night, he will have just one man in mind. His offensive contributions are always helpful. However, make no mistake, he is in the team to shut down the opposition's stars.

On the inside, the Bucks dominance has been well illustrated as Lopez, Portis, and Antetokounmpo terrorize the big men of their foes. Despite his bench role, Bobby Portis has taken a huge step forward this season. He’s hauled in 7 double doubles in his last 8 games and is having the best season of his career. His emergence takes some of the defensive glass responsibilities off Antetokounmpo and allows him to rest a little bit more. No other team in the league sports a trio of big men with this quality, and the Bucks take full advantage of that.

In tonight’s matchup, I expect the Bucks to dominate on the glass and win the game. The Heat are ranked 28th in rebounds per game, while the Bucks are first. The second and third chance points will quickly add up, and those extra possessions will tilt the scales in Bucks’ favor. Their injury report will be held until this afternoon, so a late scratch could always shift the lines, but I’ll take a shot on Bucks Moneyline at +150 odds for 2 Units. They have played with enough tenacity that I expect them to prevail despite a rest day for one or two of their players. The Bucks dominance inside cannot be understated. And unless the Heat get hot from behind the arc, they will lose in front of their home crowd.

The second bet for the night is Bam Adebayo Under 21.5 Points. Adebayo is expected to play tonight, and when he does, he won’t be getting his usual minutes. The Heat will be eager to get Adebayo back into the lineup but will not risk a long term injury to their star. Additionally, the Bucks interior defense will make even the easy shots difficult, and I just don’t imagine Adebayo will be filling the hoop tonight.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline +150 2 Units

Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 21.5 Points 1 Unit

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 6-7

Spread Record: 6-9

Total Record: 5-7

Player Props Record: 15-11

Total: 32-36

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