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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/25/2023

by Spencer Toth - 1/25/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Jamal Murray Denver Nuggets

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for each matchup. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge on the Bucks franchise, and the league as a whole, we’ll be able to stay in the green by the season’s end.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Monday night, the Bucks took down the Detroit Pistons 150-130, picking up a valuable road win. The Bucks were propelled by a 49-point first quarter, and it was a real team effort that earned them the victory. There were 5 players who scored 15+ points, as the Bucks cruised to victory in Khris Middleton’s first game in over a month.

From a betting perspective, we went a perfect 3-0. The Bucks comfortably covered the 11-point spread, and our Halftime/Fulltime prop hit without a sweat, thanks to a 28 point halftime lead for Milwaukee. Our lone player prop was Brook Lopez Over 12.5 Points, which cashed with ease after the big man dropped 21 points in 24 minutes of action.

Tonight, the Bucks (30-17) return to Milwaukee to host the Denver Nuggets (34-14). The Nuggets have compiled a very successful regular season and find themselves sitting atop the Western Conference thanks to 9 wins in their last 10 games. Nikola Jokic continues to make a case to become a 3-time MVP, averaging 25.1 PPG, 11.0 Rebounds, and 9.9 Assists per game, to go along with a league high 15 triple doubles. There is no doubt who the leader of this Nuggets franchise is, and they finally look ready to make some noise in the postseason.

Jamal Murray and Kevin Porter Jr. both returned from season long injuries this year. And now that Jokic has a slightly better supporting cast, he’s able to move the ball at a higher frequency and continue to generate scoring opportunities. The Serbian superstar will look to isolate Lopez or Giannis Antetokounmpo in the post, before making a quick move to the hoop, or waiting for a double team and finding the open teammate. There is really no easy way to slow down ‘The Joker,’ and if he plays, Jokic will likely have another quality night against Milwaukee.

All this depends on the injury status of Jokic. The Bucks are coming into the game as 8-point favorites, which implies some expected absences on the injury report. Jokic made his return from a nagging hamstring injury just last night, so I’ll be assuming he sits out on the tough back-to-back the Nuggets have been dealt. With this in mind, attention shifts to the Canadian star Jamal Murray. Murray was finally finding his stride in 2020 posting career highs in PPG (21.2), FG% (47.7), 3PT% (40.8), and Steals (1.3). The former 7th overall pick was beginning to flourish before a knee injury took him out for over a year. He will need to be at his absolute best with Jokic sidelined, but I just don’t have faith in this Nuggets team without Jokic.

The Bucks appear to be finding their form again, and a feel good win on the road on Monday certainly went a long way. In their return to Milwaukee, I expect them to keep up their new found form, play Khris Middleton once again, and get another victory. With Jokic on the bench, the Nuggets lack the quality ‘big’ play needed to contain Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Bobby Portis. The Bucks’ bigs should have no problem getting in tight with the hoop, and it will take a red hot night from deep for the Nuggets to keep pace. The Bucks are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and their knack of getting into the paint for easy shots will give them plenty of wiggle room on the defensive end.

Laying 8 points against the West leaders is a daunting proposition, but I can’t emphasize enough the impact of Jokic’s absence. Last season, the Nuggets were a 16-win team when Jokic was on the bench, and a 60-win team when he was on the floor. There is no reason to go anywhere near the Nuggets, under these circumstances, against quality opposition. I’ll happily lay the 8 points on the home team, as I expect countless easy shots to fall for the Bucks, and for the Nuggets to be unable to maintain the pace.

For the second bet of the night, we’ll be running it back from Monday night, and taking Brook Lopez Over 13.5 points. Lopez was a perfect 6/6 from 2-point range against the Pistons, and I expect the Bucks to turn to their big man early and often Wednesday night. The Nuggets will be forced to double team Antetokounmpo, and that will leave Lopez open, or with a smaller defender assigned to him. Either way, Lopez will get his shot opportunities, and will knock down enough to push us over the line.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-8) 3 Units

Pick: Brook Lopez Over 13.5 Points 2 Units

2022 Season record:

ML Record: 7-8

Spread Record: 8-9

Total Record: 5-7

Player Props Record: 18-12

Total: 38-38

Up 8.4 Units ($840)

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