2023 Super Bowl Quarterback Props and QB Predictions
Last year, the Super Bowl attracted 99.18 million viewers across the United States, in addition to the millions watching around the globe. While football is a team sport, a large majority of those peering eyes were firmly fixated on the quarterbacks.
There is no doubt that the stars of both these teams are their quarterbacks, and Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes will have their work cut out for them. Betting on quarterback props can be some of the more fun wagers to lay on the Super Bowl, as the gunslingers will be eager to carve their name into the history books. There are a variety of props on offer surrounding both of these stars, and figuring out where to lay your hard earned cash can be the difference-maker.
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Mahomes is competing in his third career Super Bowl and will be looking to add a second Vince Lombardi Trophy to his mantle. A major storyline heading into this game is the status of his right ankle. He suffered a high ankle sprain in the divisional round against the Jaguars and is clearly immobilized for the remainder of the playoffs. Against the Bengals, Mahomes ran for just 8 yards on 3 attempts. And because of this, there are no rushing props available for Mahomes.
The once mobile quarterback will rely on his arm for a majority of the game, which has inflated his passing yard props. Mahomes is coming into the game with a 287.5 mark on his passing yards, a total he has eclipsed 11 out of 18 regular season games, in addition to his most recent postseason appearance against the Bengals. I’m personally shocked at this line. It was clear against the Bengals that Mahomes is able to hobble out of the pocket when necessary, but he is a lot happier to take the easy completions and stay ahead of the chains. While a 287.5 yard line isn’t crazy low, I expect Mahomes to surpass 300 passing yards by the end of the game. It shouldn’t be a blowout for either team, which will ensure neither attempts to run out the clock. And while he averaged only 278 passing yards in his two previous Super Bowls, he averages 300.2 passing yards per game in his postseason career. I’ll happily take the over here and will be taking the +120 odds on Mahomes to get 300+, too.
In the touchdowns category, it gets a bit more difficult. The line is currently set at 1.5 passing touchdowns for Mahomes, but the Over is heavily juiced to -210 compared to the +175 odds available on the under. If you’re looking for a better return, the Over 2.5 touchdowns offers value at +190 odds. On the ground, Mahomes is +450 to hobble into the endzone, his longest odds of the season. There is certainly value in the passing touchdowns line, but it’s always hard to tell how drives will finish off. Mahomes could be throwing the ball well, but if there are short goal-to-go snaps, they will likely punch it in on the ground. I certainly expect Mahomes to throw for 2 touchdowns but can’t rationalize a bet at such heavily juiced odds. While the big plus money payouts are tempting, Mahomes will more than likely finish with exactly 2 touchdowns, meaning Over 1.5 could be thrown into a same game parlay or two. However, overall there is much better value elsewhere. On the ground, while +450 odds on a potential QB sneak is certainly tempting, Kansas City will want to keep Mahomes out of those dangerous situations and preserve what’s left of his ankle. It’s a pass for me.
Finally, I’m all over Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions at -115 odds. He has been exceptional at taking care of the ball, throwing just 1 pick in his last 6 games. I’m surprised to not be eating juice on this prop, and that’s likely because of the 2 interceptions he threw in each of his previous Super Bowl appearances. Mahomes has developed as a quarterback over the last 2 seasons, and I expect him to keep his interception free postseason intact.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 287.5 Passing yards
Pick: Patrick Mahomes 300+ Passing yards +120
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interceptions -115
Jalen Hurts is making his first career Super Bowl appearance after a dominant season with the Eagles. Hurts was the MVP favorite for a majority of the season, but a late injury swayed the odds in Mahomes’ favor. That pill will be a lot easier to swallow if Hurts can best Mahomes at Super Bowl LVII, and there are a variety of props available for the Eagles star.
In the air, Hurts’ passing yards are set at 242.5, a very low total for an MVP caliber quarterback. Hurts hit this total just 7 times this season, and only threw for 250+ 5 times. It’s an understandably low total, but I will still be taking the Over. The Chiefs defense has a gaping hole in their secondary, and a few lengthy completions could go a long way in pushing Hurts over his total. They ranked in the bottom half in passing yards allowed per game, and Hurts has the tools to expose this weakness. The Eagles will run a diverse offense, with plenty of Run-Pass options for Hurts to read the field, and I expect the Chiefs to bring pressure more often than not and Hurts to throw the ball. A well-rounded Eagles backfield always has the ability to take over. However, unlike a majority of Eagles games this season, this will be a close contest and Hurts will be forced to open up.
On the ground, Hurts has a variety of well-paying props on offer. He is the third most likely player to find the endzone, at +110 odds, while his rushing yards prop is set to 47.5 yards. This won’t be a popular one, but I’m all over the Under here. Hurts has failed to cash this prop in his last 3 games, and he will make it 4 straight in Glendale, Arizona. Another factor swaying me towards the Under is how popular the Over will be among sports bettors. This line is heavily inflated due to the fact everyone loves taking a good over in the Super Bowl, and I expected this to be a lot closer to the 40-yard range. Finally, if the Eagles are ahead, Hurts will be kneeling down the ball to close out the game. Those negative rushing yards could make the difference, and that is just another reason to take this Under.
Finally, I expect Hurts to find the endzone at +110 odds. This is a contrary prop to the rushing yards, and if parlayed together will create a juicy +425 payout. Hurts has run for at least 1 touchdown in 7 of his last 9 games, as Philadelphia loves to keep the ball in his hands in the red zone. Whether it is a designed quarterback run, a run-pass option, or QB sneak, there are plenty of ways for Hurts to find the endzone, and I expect him to get the job done. If all else fails, maybe Sirianni turns back the clock and we get another Philly Special, cashing this bet in dramatic circumstances.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 242.5 Passing Yards
Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
Pick: Jalen Hurts Touchdown +110
Same game Parlay pick: Jalen Hurts touchdown + Under 47.5 Rushing yards +425
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