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2023 Super Bowl Wide Receiver Props and Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 2/8/2023

Super Bowl wide receiver props predictions Marquez Valdes-Scantling Kansas City Chiefs

The star of an NFL team is most often the quarterback, but these storied gunslingers would be nothing without a steady pair of hands to aim at. The wide receivers for both of these franchises are extremely talented and can turn a wayward throw from their leader into a fantastic gain. Selecting wide receiver props can be some of the most satisfying bets to make, and there’s a whole slate of props to choose from, let’s dive in.

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Philadelphia Eagles: AJ Brown

AJ Brown was acquired by the Eagles in exchange for a couple draft picks during the 2022 NFL draft, and he promptly signed a 4-year, $100 million dollar extension with the Eagles. His first season in Philadelphia could not have gone better, as he broke the franchise record for single season receiving yards, with 1,496 yards.

Brown has his receiving total set to 71.5 yards and is +125 to score a touchdown. He averaged 88.0 yards per game this season, cashing this prop in 9/17 games, but saw his production drop off in both playoff games, averaging just 25 yards per game across his 2 appearances. Considering this, a line of 71.5 yards seems reasonable, but I feel it’s far too low.

While Brown may not have been effective in the playoffs, he didn’t need to be. The Eagles built up two commanding first half leads in both the divisional and championship rounds, allowing them to lean on their running backs in the second half. It’s understandable for Brown to have had down games during these circumstances, and those performances are not reflective of his playoff stats, as he’s averaged 112.5 receiving yards per game in the playoffs over the last 2 seasons.

Considering Brown averaged 110.8 receiving yards over the last 6 games of the regular season, and is a consistent playoff performer, I’ll be all over his Over here. This line is flat out disrespectful to the Eagles top receiver, especially once you factor in that the Chiefs are a bottom half pass defense, who give up the most passing touchdowns in the league.

I will even take it one step further, and comfortably take AJ Brown to get 100+ receiving yards at +265 odds. There is no doubt that Brown has the capability to cash this prop, and there will not be an easier +265 prop on the board.

Pick: AJ Brown Over 71.5 Receiving Yards

Pick: AJ Brown 100+ Receiving Yards +265

Philadelphia Eagles: DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith is in his second year in the NFL and has already shown improvement from his rookie campaign. The 2021 draft’s 10th overall pick was reunited with his college quarterback, Jalen Hurts. The on-field chemistry Hurts and Smith have created makes him the perfect WR2 in Philadelphia, and few teams boast a better one-two punch than Smith and Brown. His speed and athleticism make him a tough guard for even the league’s best secondaries, and the Chiefs are certainly far from that.

Smith’s line is set at 63.5 Receiving yards, and the young wideout is +175 to haul in a touchdown. Smith averaged 74.8 yards per game and scored 7 regular season touchdowns. Like Brown, he saw his production drop in the previous playoff games, but that shouldn’t be a concern for potential bettors, as he’s sailed over this line in his last 6 regular season games, including 4 100+ yard outbursts.

While I don’t like betting on the Eagles top two receivers to go over their totals, this line gives me no choice. The Chiefs weak secondary, combined with Smith’s consistent scoring, fills me with confidence when taking his Over. Not only will I be taking his Over, but I’ll also be sprinkling on Smith to get 100+ receiving yards at +360 odds.

I’m not oblivious to the fact that it’s very unlikely Smith and Brown will both get 100+ yards. However, if either gets the job done, we will be well in the green. I find it hard to believe the Chiefs will be able to keep both pass catchers in double digit yards, and I don’t expect the Eagles to shut down their second half offense like they did against the Giants and 49ers.

Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 63.5 Receiving Yards

Pick: DeVonta Smith 100+ Receiving Yards +360

Kansas City Chiefs: Juju Smith-Schuster

There is no doubt who the best pass catcher on the Kansas City Chiefs is; it’s TE Travis Kelce. However, the title of WR1 is still up for grabs, as Juju Smith-Schuster looks to earn that honor at Super Bowl LVII.

Smith-Schuster was struggling with a knee injury, but it looks like he’ll be good to go in Glendale, Arizona. He led the Chiefs wide receivers in reception (78) and yards (933) and is not afraid of the spotlight. He was the center of attention in Pittsburgh after he exploded for 1,426 receiving yards in his sophomore season. And after falling off in recent years, he has seen a career rejuvenation in Kansas City.

Smith-Schuster’s line is set at 37.5 receiving yards, and he is +250 to find the endzone. These lines make sense, as Smith-Schuster has eclipsed 37.5 yards 9 out of 19 games this season, scoring 3 touchdowns. However, against the Eagles, I expect him to fall short.

The talented wide receiver’s knee injury will not be fully healed, and he may see reduced snaps if he is not 100%. Additionally, the Eagles have a very formidable defensive unit, and there is no reason to expect Smith-Schuster to get an above average number of targets. The Chiefs may not have a clear WR1, but they have very solid wide receiver depth, and Mahomes loves to get everyone involved. Smith-Schuster has hit this Over in less than half his games. And once you factor in the knee injury and a stout Eagles defense, I expect him to fall short.

While I will be fading his receiving yards total, I will be playing his touchdown prop at +250. Smith-Schuster may have only scored 3 times in the regular season. However, when the lights shine brightest, he will get his chance to shine. In games such as the Super Bowl, proven stars such as Smith-Schuster get extra red zone targets. And if it’s not Kelce, it’ll be Smith-Schuster hauling it in.

Pick: Juju Smith-Schuster Under 37.5 receiving yards

Pick: Juju Smith-Schuster Touchdown +250

Kansas City Chiefs: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has had a successful first season in Kansas City, as he and Smith-Schuster have done a good job at filling the void left by the departure of Tyreek Hill. Valdes-Scantling finished the season with a career high 42 receptions and fell just short of his career high in yards, with 687 receiving yards.

Valdes-Scantling has been a great addition to the lineup, as his deep ball threat is always present, and he keeps secondaries honest. His presence on the field makes every other receiver better, as the safeties know he could take off and score at any moment. In 2020, Valdes-Scantling led the league in yards per catch, averaging a whopping 20.9 yards.

Against the Bengals, Valdes-Scantling had his best game in a Chiefs uniform, going for 119 yards on 6 catches, while tacking on a touchdown. Against the Eagles, his line is set at 36.5 receiving yards, and he is +250 to score. There is certainly value there. However, can Valdes-Scantling repeat his monster performance against the Bengals?

I’ll be banking on a yes. In my eyes, Valdes-Scantling will either have another solid game, going for 50+ yards and scoring a touchdown, or he will fall flat, and fail to eclipse his yards total. Keeping this in mind, the only bet I’ll be making on Valdes-Scantling is a small parlay. Instead of taking his +250 odds on a touchdown, I’ll happily take a Valdes-Scantling touchdown parlayed with his Over 36.5 yards prop at +375 odds. Considering his deep ball threat, it’s unlikely Valdes-Scantling will find the endzone without cashing his prop, and I’m not in the business of leaving money on the table. Take both, or take neither, but Valdes-Scantling is the perfect ‘Boom or Bust’ candidate for Super Bowl LVII.

Pick: Valdes-Scantling Touchdown and Over 36.5 receiving yards +375

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