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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

by Spencer Toth - 5/22/2024

NBA series predictions and best bets Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Kyrie Irving

The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves have put together fantastic playoff runs, but only one of these two teams can advance to the NBA Finals. Dallas will look to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, as perennial MVP favorite Luka Doncic is in a desperate search for his first NBA title. For Minnesota, this is their second Western Conference Finals appearance in franchise history, previously losing to the Lakers in 2004. Both of these fan bases are craving postseason success and will be equally confident in their quest for a coveted NBA Finals berth. 

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Minnesota Timberwolves:

The Timberwolves knocked off the reigning champions, the Denver Nuggets, in the second round and will be confident they can dispatch the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. Minnesota overcame a 20-point deficit in Game 7 on the road. And if that doesn’t prove they are legitimate championship threats, nothing ever will. The Timberwolves aren’t built like many previous title winners. However, after years of crafting their team and rebuilding, they are finally reaping the rewards. Anthony Edwards has spearheaded the offense for these defensive juggernauts, as his flashy style on and off the court has led to the best season in franchise history for Minnesota. Edwards will steal the headlines for the Timberwolves, but it has been their rock-solid defensive play that has got them this far. They were the best defensive team in the regular season and haven’t taken their foot off the gas in the playoffs. In the first round, they swept the Suns while allowing 103.2 PPG, and then got even better, holding the Nuggets to just 97.6 PPG in the second round. To take it a step further, the Nuggets scored just 84.8 PPG in their four defeats, as the Timberwolves stifling defense gave them real problems throughout the series.

Edwards will need to continue to deliver offensively, but the Timberwolves playoff hopes will rest on their defense. If they can continue holding their opponents to around 100 PPG, they will always put themselves in a great position to win. Rudy Gobert took home his fourth DPOY award this season, anchoring the paint for Minnesota. The inclusion of Karl-Anthony Towns in the starting lineup has given Gobert support in the paint, allowing the incredible defender to confidently clamp down the opposition’s stars in the open court.

The Timberwolves have the perfect balance of future superstars, surrounded by savvy veterans. Someone like Mike Conley may not be on the front page of tomorrow’s newspaper, but his veteran leadership has made everyone on the roster better. He’s a solid open court defender and can knock down three’s, scoring 44.2% of his attempts this season. NBA teams need superstars like Edwards to win in the playoffs, but a well-rounded team takes some of that pressure off Edwards on a nightly basis. They have the defense, offense, and coaching to succeed. And with home court advantage, they are the favorites to advance out of a stacked Western Conference.

Dallas Mavericks:

The Mavericks are led by Luka Doncic, who is still looking for his first ring in the NBA. The 25-year-old still has plenty of miles left in the tank, but this is a fantastic opportunity for Dallas to bring him some tangible success. Doncic is a perennial MVP favorite and finished third in the MVP race in the regular season. He is the best player remaining in the postseason but has seen his production dip in the playoffs this year. His 27/10/9 line is nothing to scoff at, but there is no denying his overall offensive production, and shooting efficiency, has dipped. He struggled to shoot the ball from behind the arc against the Clippers in the first round, but Dallas survived before eliminating the top seeded Thunder in the second round. If Doncic continues playing at this level, the Mavericks will still have a chance. However, if he can regain his regular season form, the Timberwolves don’t have the personnel to slow him down.

Doncic and Kyrie Irving are the faces of this franchise, but it has been Dallas’s defense that has got them this far. They may not be quite as suffocating at the Timberwolves, but they have still put together quite the postseason on the defensive end. They’ve only scored 106.5 PPG in their 12 playoff games, but they’ve only allowed 103.1 PPG in that span. They’ve been able to limit their opponents open looks from behind the arc, while stuffing the paint with lengthy big men such as Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford.

There is no doubt Doncic is the star in Dallas, but this series depends on Kyrie Irving’s production. Irving is the best player Doncic has had with him in his career, as the shifty point guard can generate his own offense and is a reliable shooter from all three levels on the court. Irving’s 21.1 PPG on 44% from behind the arc has provided Doncic with offensive support, allowing the Serbian superstar to confidently pass the ball if he is getting double teamed. Irving appears to have put his off-court issues behind him and has managed to stay out of the headlines this year in Dallas. There is no denying the 32-year-old is still a truly elite player, and he will need to continue his solid play for Dallas to advance.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks Series Prediction:

On paper, this series is far closer than the battle in the Eastern Conference, with both teams rightfully confident they can book their place in the NBA Finals. Both contenders have proven they are elite defensive sides, and this series will come down to which offensive superstar can erupt for a few big nights. Edwards is certainly capable of doing so, scoring 40+ points three times in the playoffs already, but the superstar edge goes to Dallas. Doncic and Irving can both score points in bunches, giving Dallas two options to fill up the scoreboard down the stretch of tight games. Towns is one of the few big men who can hit threes, but his inability to create his own shot as the shot clock winds down makes him an unreliable option. Edwards is forced to facilitate on almost every possession, leaving the Timberwolves lost when he is forced to rest, or is having an off night. Dallas is the far more well-rounded offensive team, and they have the defensive personnel to contain the Timberwolves role players. Gobert is a liability on the offensive end. And unless the Timberwolves can hold Dallas to double-digit points on a nightly basis, they will struggle to string wins together. All three games Minnesota allowed 100+ points against Denver they lost, as their offense isn’t capable of matching an outburst from their opposition. Dallas will score 100+ more often than not, putting them in a great position to win on a nightly basis. This one will go right down to the wire, but Dallas will pull out a gutsy Game 7 win on the final night of the third round.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks in 7 Games

Timberwolves vs Mavericks Best Bets:

The Timberwolves are coming in as favorites, which is hard to argue with, but this line is far wider than it should be. Minnesota is a -190 favorite to advance, with Dallas coming back with juicy +160 odds to win this series. I expect Dallas to win a tight one and will happily scoop them up at these odds. Minnesota hasn’t been able to successfully defend home court, going 1-2 against Denver. If Dallas can win one, or both, of the first two games of this series, they will be the favorites heading into Game 3. This +160 line is one that must absolutely be bet as soon as possible, as a single Dallas win will dramatically shift this line.

While Dallas at +160 is good, if we lay a little juice, we can secure the best prop of the series. The Over 5.5 games line is sitting at -190 odds, and there is no way either of these teams lose in 5 or fewer games. Minnesota’s defense will turn up and win at least two of these games for them. As long as Dallas stays healthy, it’s hard to imagine them not picking up a few wins too. These two teams are very evenly matched, and we are in store for a lengthy series, regardless of the eventual winner.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks to Win the Series +160

Top Pick: Timberwolves vs Mavericks Over 5.5 Games -190

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