2025-26 Denver Nuggets Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/1/2025

The Denver Nuggets have had a championship win in the last five years, so it’s hard to criticize their year-over-year results in that span. However, Nikola Jokic is widely considered to be the best player in the league, yet the Nuggets have now been bounced in the second round of the playoffs for the second straight season. A late-season coaching change, combined with a flurry of offseason moves, has dramatically altered the chemistry in Denver. Jokic is poised for another spectacular season, but can the Nuggets' supporting cast give him the support needed to navigate a crowded Western Conference?

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Denver Nuggets Offseason Recap

The Denver Nuggets were clearly not happy with the state of this roster at the tail end of last season, firing Mike Malone with three games left in the regular season. David Adelman is the new boss in Denver, and this offseason was the first chance he had to leave his mark on this roster.

The most impactful offseason move for the Nuggets was trading Michael Porter Jr. and a first-round pick to the Nets for Cameron Johnson. Porter Jr. was a crucial member of the Nuggets' championship run and has been the third scorer alongside Jokic and Jamal Murray for the last five years. His three-point shooting and rim-rushing abilities will be missed, but the Nuggets got a clear upgrade with Cam Johnson. Johnson averaged 19 PPG last season with the Nets, and was very efficient form all over the court. The Nuggets have been craving another scorer to play alongside Jokic, and Johnson will greatly benefit from being in the Serbian’s presence. He will have to get used to not having the ball in his hands as often as he did with the tanking Nets, but he has proven he can be effective regardless of his role.

The Nuggets didn’t stop there, as they also brought in Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. in free agency, while trading for Jonas Valanciunas. All three are experienced veterans who have bounced around the league, but know how to win basketball games. They can fill whatever role the Nuggets need, and while there is little upside with these players, the Nuggets undoubtedly got better with their services. To make room for their new names, the Nuggets were forced to not re-sign Russell Westbrook. The future Hall-of-Famer had an up-and-down time in Denver and remains unsigned.

Denver Nuggets Season Expectations

As long as Nikola Jokic stays healthy, the Denver Nuggets are expected to win an NBA championship. The Oklahoma City Thunder lead a handful of dangerous Western Conference competitors, but Jokic is capable of single-handedly leading this team to victory. He finished second in MVP voting, partly due to voter fatigue, and found himself inside the top five in PPG, Rebounds, Assists, and 3-point percentage. His 30/10/13 statline will be hard to replicate, but if anyone can do it, Jokic can. The three-time MVP doesn’t rely on his physical attributes to succeed, although being 7 feet tall certainly helps. His incredible court vision, unconventional shooting style, and ability to make jaw-dropping plays on a nightly basis make him impossible to slow down. On paper, not only is Jokic playing the best basketball of his career, but he now has the strongest supporting cast around him in Denver.

Jamal Murray’s production often gets overshadowed by Jokic’s greatness, but he is also important to the Nuggets' success. We saw Jokic struggle in the playoffs in 2022 when Murray was hurt, before winning the championship in 2023 when he was back to full strength. Murray spaces the court nicely, rarely turns the ball over, and can get red-hot from behind the arc with a moment’s notice. Aaron Gordon is another impactful member of the starting five, and the rise of Christian Braun is one of the reasons the Nuggets were alright with letting Porter Jr. go. Denver is well-rounded, deep, and once again has the fire to win after a pair of disappointing campaigns. Once you add in the fact that they have the best player in the league on their roster, this is a very dangerous team to underestimate heading into the 2025-26 season.

Denver Nuggets Schedule Breakdown

Denver opens up the year with a trip to Golden State before playing six of their next eight games at home. They have a home Christmas Day game against the Timberwolves, before embarking on a season-long seven-game road trip through New Year's. They have the privilege of closing things out with 10 of their last 13 at home, with a potentially Western Conference deciding matchup against the Thunder scheduled for their 81st game of the season.

Denver Nuggets Odds

The Denver Nuggets are expected to be one of the top teams in the NBA this season based on the NBA odds. In the regular season, they have a win total of 53.5 juiced to the over, or 54.5 juiced to the under. That is the third-highest win total in the NBA, trailing only the Cavaliers and Thunder. Denver has -4000 odds to make the playoffs, and is expected to do so without the play-in tournament, which they are +500 to participate in.

In the playoffs, Denver has +800 odds to win the NBA Finals and +480 odds to win the Western Conference. The steep competition in the West ensures that the Nuggets will likely be Finals favorites if they reach that stage of the competition, which is reflected in the odds. In the NBA Cup, Denver has the fourth-lowest odds at +1100 to win. However, they are far from a straightforward group, as they are alongside the Rockets, Warriors, Spurs, and Trail Blazers with +165 odds to come out on top.

2025-26 Denver Nuggets Season Predictions and Best Bets

It is hard to overlook the Nuggets as long as Jokic stays healthy. The depth they’ve added around their MVP candidate with impressive talent, and Denver is poised for a deep playoff run. There’s no one I would rather have than Jokic holding the ball in the final 30 seconds of a Game 7, and I expect the Nuggets to make a deep playoff run this season. However, I don’t think it will be on the back of a strong regular season showing. Denver has a bit of winning fatigue going into the regular season, having finished in the top 4 three years in a row and in six of the last seven seasons. A very competitive Western Conference means the Nuggets will struggle to pile up the wins, and I expect them to finish 51-31, just under their total. However, everything changes in the playoffs.

Denver lost two very close second-round series in the last two years, and is due for their luck to change. It won’t be easy navigating the Wild West, but Denver has what it takes to prevail against anyone in a seven-game series. These odds may rise slightly from +800, but putting a small wager on the Nuggets to win another championship is still worthwhile. Finally, the coveted MVP award. There was a massive debate around the MVP race last season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was able to prevail. Now that the voters have snapped Jokic’s streak, they will return the award to its rightful owner. Jokic has +350 odds to win MVP this season, and that is the best bet you can make when dissecting Denver heading into the new campaign.

Pick: Denver Nuggets Under 53.5 Wins +100

Pick: Denver Nuggets to win the NBA championship +800

Top Pick: Nikola Jokic to win MVP +350

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Start:	October 1, 2025 @ 6:10 PM
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2025-26 Denver Nuggets Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

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