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2025-26 Golden State Warriors Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/2/2025

Golden State Warriors predictions Stephen Curry

The Golden State Warriors have been the most dominant team over the last decade. They are desperate to squeeze out one more championship before Steph Curry retires, and they made the offseason moves necessary to stay competitive in the stacked Western Conference. An aging squad will look to lean on its experience against the next generation of superstars. Golden State hasn’t made the Western Conference Finals in three straight years, but can this be the season they return to their spot at the top of the NBA summit?

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Golden State Warriors Offseason Recap

The Golden State Warriors didn’t have any Kevin Durant-esque signings this offseason, but they were still very productive. They re-signed Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton II to new contracts, and retooled their bench with free agent signings. The Warriors made their fanbase wait, but on October 1st, they acquired the signatures of Seth Curry, Al Horford, and De’Anthony Melton. They did this without losing any impactful players, as Kevon Looney was the only member of the rotation to depart the Warriors. 
Seth Curry is uniting with his brother on the court and will be a productive member of the backcourt. He has a career three-point percentage of 43.3% in 550 games played, and will give opposing defenses two Currys to worry about raining down threes. If he retired today, Seth Curry would have the 7th-best three-point percentage of all-time, edging out Steph, who ranks 12th. Seth Curry’s lack of defense will prevent him from playing 20+ minutes with a contender like the Warriors, but he will get his fair share of playing time and is an effective bench player for Golden State. 

The Currys uniting have stolen Al Horford’s headlines, but the former Celtic will be the more impactful offseason addition. Horford is an NBA champion entering his 19th season in the league, and he has carved out a name for himself with his 3-and-D attributes. Horford can stretch defenses on offense, but his real value is on the defensive end. Horford has shut down giants like Giannis Antetokounmpo in the playoffs, and can effectively switch onto mobile guards, too. His ability to defend all five positions with confidence will be a valuable tool for Steve Kerr to deploy. 

Golden State Warriors Season Expectation

A player with Steph Curry’s work rate is not here to collect paychecks before riding off into the sunset. Curry is still playing to add to his resume as he has his eyes firmly fixed on the NBA championship. Klay Thompson took some of the magic with him when he left for Dallas, but the Warriors got even better when they secured the services of Jimmy Butler last season. Butler and Curry are both capable of creating their own offense and are surrounded by lethal three-point shooters. Doubling Curry or Butler isn’t an option, as Golden State will make teams pay with open shots from Buddy Hield, Brandon Podziemski, and Melton. This is the first time in Butler’s career that he isn’t the primary option on his team, and he has adjusted nicely to playing alongside Curry. 

While Golden State has a strong, balanced roster, this team will only go as far as Curry can take them. He will go down as the best shooter of all-time, and his defensive work rate is equally impactful. Curry never stops running, and that fact gets even more impressive with each passing season. His endless energy fuels not only himself, but his teammates, as a workhorse like Curry becomes infectious over the course of a season. The Warriors have everything they need to make a deep playoff run this season. 

Golden State Warriors Schedule Breakdown

Golden State opens up the year against the Lakers before heading home to welcome Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. They have not one, but two six-game road trips this year, one in November with the other coming in March. Golden State’s schedule is full of long road trips and home stands, which means they will be a streaky team that has to ride the ups and downs of an 82-game season. In the first three weeks of January, the Warriors play 11 games, with ten of them at home. Most of those home games are against weaker opposition, which could allow the Warriors to gather momentum coming into 2026. 

Golden State Warriors Odds

Gone are the days of the Golden State coming into the year as -170 favorites to win the NBA title. They have the 10th-shortest odds this season at +3000, and are only -280 to make the playoffs in the first place. Their 45.5 win total is quite low for a team with this kind of talent, but their aging stars are unlikely to suit up for all 82 games this year. The oddsmakers expect the Warriors to have a good, not great, regular season, but are certainly not counting them out in the playoffs. Looking at the NBA Cup, the Warriors find themselves in a difficult group featuring the Nuggets, Rockets, Spurs, and Trail Blazers. Golden State is +340 to top that group, and +2300 to win the NBA Cup. To make matters worse, Golden State has to take on Denver and San Antonio on the road, and will have to walk away with at least one road win if they hope to advance. 

2025-26 Golden State Warriors Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Warriors will see anything short of a deep playoff run as a failure, and I would have to say I agree. Golden State is trying to keep its championship window open for as long as possible before Curry and Green retire, and this could certainly be the final season for Green. While we can’t trust the Warriors to stay focused over an 82-game season, I do expect them to be able to compete in both the NBA Cup and the classic playoffs. In the NBA Cup, we will shoot for the moon with an outright victory at +2300. There is no value in taking Golden State to top their difficult group at +340, as the Warriors will need to win just three more games after that to take home the crown at +2300. The veterans will still be fresh early in the season, and we saw Golden State take this tournament very seriously last season. For the second pick, we will stick with the longshot theme and take Golden State to win the championship at +3000. The Warriors have the roster they need to succeed at both ends of the court and have no shortage of experienced talent. Taking any win totals or playoff props doesn’t offer enough upside, making small wagers at long odds the way to go when betting on the Warriors. If you really want to get crazy, Steph Curry to win the MVP award at +20000 could be worth a dollar or two. He finished 9th in MVP voting last season, and his flashy play and household name could get him into the conversation this year. 

Top Pick: Golden State Warriors to win the NBA Cup +2300

Pick: Golden State Warriors to win the NBA Finals +3000

Pick: Steph Curry to win MVP +20000

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