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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 12/9/2025

by Spencer Toth - 12/9/2025

NBA hot and cold ATS and over under Aaron Nesmith Indiana Pacers

The NBA Cup knockout stages are right around the corner, with the tantalizing Christmas Day slate also in the distance. It is an incredibly monumental time of the year for the NBA hopefuls, but some teams have been unable to live up to their lofty expectations. Over the last two weeks, certain teams have consistently fallen short of against-the-spread expectations, while others have persistently prevailed. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread in the NBA, with the highest and lowest scorers for your over/under picks. 

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The Hot:

Boston Celtics

No Tatum? No problem. The Celtics have been the hottest team in the NBA over the last fortnight, going 8-2 straight up and an even better 9-1 against the spread. They have covered in eight straight games and were closing underdogs in half of those contests. The Celtics' three-point reliance will always lead to a little extra variance, but the reliability of this team has been hard to overlook. In the last two weeks, they have wins over the Pistons, Raptors, Cavaliers, Knicks, and Lakers. They aren’t just beating up on bad teams, but the Celtics are dominating legitimate NBA title contenders. However, don’t expect this trend to persist. When one of the most popular teams in the league catches fire like this, the oddsmakers will begin to overvalue them on the spread. They have several tough games upcoming, so if the Celtics are still in the favorite role against the Pistons, Heat, and Raptors, it may be time to fade them at the right price. 

Indiana Pacers:

The Indiana Pacers started the season 1-13, but have turned things around as of late. They are 5-5 in their last 10, with an 8-2 record against the spread. Getting Aaron Nesmith and Benedict Mathurin back from injury certainly helped, as this team is looking much more like the squad that made a shocking run to the NBA Finals last season. They have only closed as the favorite twice in their last ten games despite being at home for seven of those contests. With Tyrese Haliburton injured and Myles Turner out of Indiana, the Pacers will continue to find themselves in the underdog role for the foreseeable future. Their recent turnaround shows that they still have a talented squad when healthy, and you can expect the Pacers to continue to play tough basketball in the coming weeks. If there is a favorable number with Indiana, there is no reason this team should stop covering spreads at this rate. 

The Cold:

Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls have been the opposite of the Pacers this season. They started the year 5-0, but have lost 14 of their 19 games since. In the last two weeks, the Bulls have gone 1-9 against the spread, and currently find themselves riding a 7-game losing streak. Not only are the Bulls losing, but on most nights, it isn’t even close. They have double-digit losses to the Pacers, Nets, Warriors, and Pelicans in that span. This team can’t even blame injuries, as they have stayed relatively healthy, and the reality is that they are still a bottom-half team in the struggling Eastern Conference. The oddsmakers have started to correctly value the Bulls, and I don’t expect the against-the-spread defeats to keep piling up. Will the Bulls start winning games? Probably not. But this team will be getting double-digit spreads against the top half of the league, and they may be competitive enough to cover large numbers. 

Toronto Raptors:

The Toronto Raptors have been incredibly streaky this season, making it hard to accurately evaluate this team. They started 1-4, then won 13 of their next 14, before going 1-5 in their last six games. They have gone just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10, including seven straight games in which they have failed to cover. Losing RJ Barrett to injury has had a bigger impact on this team than many expected. Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, and Immanuel Quickley shouldn’t be struggling like they are, but it is clear the Raptors need Barrett on the court to succeed. The Canadian isn’t expected back for at least another week, meaning the losing skid north of the border is unlikely to come to an end. Once you couple that with a tough upcoming schedule, the Raptors should probably be double-digit underdogs once in a while, which they haven’t yet been this year. 
High Scorers:

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets have been an over machine over the last few weeks. They are 8-2 to the over in their last ten games, despite the total closing at a minimum of 233 points in each of those matchups. It doesn’t matter who the Nuggets have been facing off against; their offense has been completely unstoppable. Nikola Jokic is the lead contributor on the offensive end of the court, and the three-time MVP is a big reason why they have scored 120+ in 12 of their last 14 games. Their defense hasn’t been superb, which is a contributing factor, but the reality is that this offense will continue to hum as long as Jokic is on the court. The oddsmakers have tried to adjust with high totals for Denver, but it simply hasn’t worked. This team will eventually cool down, but any closing line of less than 240 points makes the over a solid pick. 

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are featuring in the high scorers column for the second straight edition of the Hot and Cold report. However, it is not for the right reasons. Utah has gone over the total in 7 of its last 10 games, but has only three wins in that span. Their defense, or lack thereof, has been the driving force behind these inflated scorelines. They have allowed at least 119 points in seven straight games, with that number eclipsing 130 points in five of their last ten. This is a team that does not want to play any defense whatsoever, and it is astonishing that the 20th-ranked offense keeps cashing these totals. The oddsmakers have posted a closing line of 240+ points in five of their last ten, and the Jazz keep finding ways to fly over the line. Eventually, their totals will inflate so high that even their dreadful defense won’t be disastrous enough to keep cashing overs, but that day is still weeks away. 

Low Scorers:

Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets are 6-17 on the season, but a 4-6 record in their last ten games has lifted the spirits of the locker room. While their fan base would love to see some offense, the Nets' improved defense has led them to wins, as they have stayed under the total in nine of their last ten games. Their highest scoring contest in the last ten has been 233 points, with this squad averaging less than 110 points both for and against in that span. Brooklyn has started to dial in defensively; they play at a slow pace and have been a real outlier this season as scoring has been up league-wide. Michael Porter Jr. is the textbook definition of a volume shooter, and his low efficiency has kept the Nets near the bottom of major offensive categories. Their defense still has a long way to go, but anything north of a 225 point total against almost anyone in the league makes the under the way to go. 

Sacramento Kings

It is time for the Kings to blow up their roster. I’m not sure whose bright idea it was to bring in the struggling duo of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine from Chicago, but it has clearly not worked. Sacramento has stayed under the total in eight of their last ten games, and has gone 3-7 in that span. Domantas Sabonis’ injury can be blamed, but the reality is that this team is playing fragmented basketball when league-wide chemistry is at an all-time high. While they may not keep cashing unders as the oddsmakers react to their skid, their team total is a great choice if you are looking to fade the Kings. 

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