2025-26 Houston Rockets Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/2/2025

The Houston Rockets finished second behind the Oklahoma City Thunder last season in the Western Conference. Their incredibly young roster is poised to be the biggest threat to OKC for the next decade, but the Rockets wanted to get better immediately. In steps Kevin Durant. Durant’s arrival dramatically transforms the look of the Rockets this season and blows their championship window wide open. Did the Rockets make the right move by selling some of the future to contend this season, or did they just undo a decade of rebuilding with one transaction?

Houston Rockets Offseason Recap

The Rockets will look very different next season. First of all, landing one of the greatest players of all-time is rarely a bad move, and the Rockets have the superstar they need with Kevin Durant. Durant has averaged 25+ PPG in every season of his career and has become a more efficient scorer as he ages. His 43% three-point percentage last season made use of every inch of his 7’5” wingspan, and he is impossible to guard in the open court. He is 8th all-time in points, and could climb as high as 5th on that list with another productive season. While Durant coming to Houston is obviously a big win, it does come with concerns. He tore his Achilles tendon five years ago and has had injury issues throughout his career. However, he played 62 and 75 games in his last two seasons, and the Rockets will be hoping for that kind of availability this season.

Durant’s massive seven-team deal wasn’t the only transaction the Rockets made this summer, as they also signed Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Okogie to their roster. These valuable role players will have a real impact on this team, with Okogie possibly slotting right into the starting lineup. Finally, Clint Capela also came to Houston as a part of the Kevin Durant trade. Capela makes up for his lack of shooting with intense shot blocking paired with rebounding skills on both ends of the court. Houston has no shortage of shooters on their roster, and Capela will happily take a back seat on the offensive end.

Bringing in Kevin Durant will steal the headlines, but his arrival didn’t come without a price. Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and six draft picks were sacrificed to get Durant. Green was the Rockets' leading scorer last season, and suited up for all 82 games at just 22 years old. He has the potential to turn into a Hall of Famer in his career, and he will be missed in Houston. Also leaving is Dillon Brooks. While no one wants to play against Brooks, he is the type of guy everyone wants to play with. His tenacity and leadership were instrumental to the Rockets' success last season, and that is very hard to replace.

Additionally, while Fred VanVleet didn’t leave Houston, a season-ending injury will certainly be impactful. This team found lots of success last year thanks to VanVleet and Brooks mentoring the Rockets’ young core. Not only will VanVleet be missed on the court, but his impact off the court will be felt just as much. Durant is a lock to join the Hall of Fame, but has had attitude problems throughout his career. If he isn’t as willing to put in the work to develop his teammates, the Rockets will be in serious trouble this season.

Houston Rockets Season Expectations

The second seed in the Western Conference traded away its future to sign Kevin Durant. I think it is safe to say that it is championship or bust for Houston this year. Durant has only a few more productive years left in the NBA, and Houston’s championship window just got a lot shorter since making this trade. The Rockets still have a trio of really promising prospects with Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith Jr, but their best prospect, Green, is gone. The Rockets still got better in the present after their flurry of offseason moves, and that is all that matters this season. As long as Durant stays healthy, the Rockets will be right alongside the Thunder at the top of the Western Conference.

Houston Rockets Schedule Breakdown

Houston opens up the year in Oklahoma City for a can’t-miss matchup. Four games against bottom-tier Eastern Conference opposition follow that game, and the Rockets will be away from home for long stretches to start the season. An astonishing 17 of their first 26 games are on the road, capped off by a Christmas Day matchup against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. They are rewarded with several lengthy homestands in the second half of the season, but getting to that point with a respectable record will not be easy.

Houston Rockets Odds

The Houston Rockets have the second-highest win total in the Western Conference at 53.5 wins, which would eclipse their 52-30 campaign from a year ago. That comes with +600 odds to claim the number one seed in the Western Conference. The playoffs are all but a sure thing for the Rockets, with -2000 odds to qualify and lengthy +420 odds to need the play-in tournament to do so. In the playoffs, Houston has the sixth-shortest championship odds at +1500, and the fifth-shortest conference odds at +950. Finally, they have a difficult NBA Cup group with the Nuggets, Warriors, Spurs, and Trail Blazers joining them in West Group C. Houston has +240 odds to top the group, and +1800 odds to win the NBA Cup.

2025-26 Houston Rockets Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Rockets have one of the most talented rosters in the league, but their expectations are far too lofty this season. Kevin Durant still has injury concerns, and Houston traded away too much talent to secure his services. Fred VanVleet being out for the season is a massive loss, and Houston no longer has the veteran role players needed to develop their young core. Durant will probably put up 25+ PPG again this season, but the Rockets won’t even come close to touching their 53.5 win total. That is a great bet to make on Houston this season, but I usually like chasing longer odds for season-long futures. Instead, the best pick you can make is for the Rockets to make the play-in tournament at +420 odds. The Western Conference is brimming full of contenders, and Houston could easily slide down the standings in what promises to be a sprint to game 82. This is a fragile team that jumped from 11th to 2nd last year, and could certainly regress after an eventful offseason. We will also be sprinkling on Houston to miss the playoffs at +750, but I like the play-in prop better. Take any Houston unders you want, stay away from any playoff odds, and look for creative ways to get plus money prices on the Rockets failing to live up to expectations.

Pick: Houston Rockets Under 53.5 Wins -130

Top Pick: Houston Rockets to participate in the play-in tournament +420

Pick: Houston Rockets to Miss the Playoffs +750

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Start:	October 3, 2025 @ 6:10 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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2025-26 Houston Rockets Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

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