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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 5/20/2025

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder series predictions and best bets Anthony Edwards

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the overwhelming favorites to win the Western Conference all year long, and it is not surprising to see them in the Western Conference Finals. They had to use all seven games to get past the Denver Nuggets after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round. While the Thunder were expected to reach the WCF, the Timberwolves had to defy the odds to reach this stage of the competition. They were sizable underdogs against LeBron James and Luka Doncic in the first round, but took care of business in five games. They then took advantage of a Steph Curry injury to swat aside the Warriors to book their place in the WCF. There is no doubt the Oklahoma City Thunder deserve their tag as huge favorites in this series, as they are -200 to win the NBA championship. Can Minnesota continue its surge in the postseason, or will the upstart Thunder side take the next step to a historic championship?

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Oklahoma City Thunder:

The Thunder have reached the WCF for the first time in a decade, and they appear poised to be playoff mainstays for the next decade. Not only do Oklahoma City have a roster full of young talent that features the MVP favorite, but they have five more first round picks over the next two seasons too. Their patience in building their roster after trading Kevin Durant and Paul George has started to pay dividends, and this could be the time they start to receive tangible rewards. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the odds-on favorite to win regular season MVP, and is -150 to add on a FMVP award too. The 26-year-old Canadian has taken the league by storm and scored 32.7 PPG in the regular season. His 29 PPG in the playoffs has dipped since the Thunder have heavily rotated their team, but there is no denying the impact he has on the offensive end. He can drive into the painted area and finish from all angles, reminiscent of prime Kyrie Irving in the paint. He rarely turns the ball over and is the leader of this team both on and off the court. Gilgeous-Alexander is the oldest player in the top 8 based on minutes per game for Oklahoma City at 26 years old, which says a lot about the trajectory of this franchise. 

The Thunder have several offensive weapons on their roster, but what makes this team truly special is their depth. They are one of the few NBA teams to run a 10-man rotation, with all ten players getting minutes even in non-blowout situations. Bench players like Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, and Jaylin Williams (not to be confused with Jalen Williams) will not become household names anytime soon, but their impact is difficult to put into words. The Thunder have been the best team on the defensive end thanks to their endless fresh legs off the bench, and they will not stop what has gotten them this far anytime soon. Four different players average at least a steal and a half per game this postseason, putting them all in the top-15 league-wide. The Thunder have a bright future in front of them, but they will not be thinking about that now. This team wants to win a championship this season to kick off their potential dynasty. They have everything they need to succeed, and they showed they can thrive under the bright lights after their dominant game seven victory a few days ago. 

Minnesota Timberwolves:

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been perennial playoff contenders for the last half-decade, but have never been able to put it all together when it matters most. They decided to shake things up by sending Karl-Anthony Towns to New York for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in the offseason, and that decision has instantly reaped rewards. 

The Timberwolves were always going to be contenders with the explosive Anthony Edwards and 4-time DPOY Rudy Gobert on their roster, and this trade finally put them over the edge. The Timberwolves decided to finally sacrifice a bit of defense to give Edwards some offensive support, and Julius Randle appears to have finally found his home. Randle is a superstar who needs the ball in his hands often, and he has been able to do that in Minnesota. His partnership with Edwards has allowed them to score 26.5 and 23.9 PPG, respectively, while they both average 5.9 assists per game. They do not have a similar playstyle by any stretch of the imagination, but they have been able to gel in the backcourt, and that is all that matters. Donte DiVincenzo has been a real energizer off the bench, as his three-point shooting and pesky defense have left the Timberwolves thrilled with their roster in a post-Towns era. 

While the additions changed the nature of this offense, make no mistake, they are still a defensive team. Gobert is a popular choice for criticism, but his work in the paint cannot be overlooked. He is capable of single-handedly slowing down the league's great big men, and is a rebound magnet in the paint. Jaden McDaniels is responsible for the opposition’s primary ball handler, and he has been able to effectively fill his role. The Timberwolves only use 8 players on a nightly basis, but have still managed to keep their stars under 40 minutes of game action. Their combination of lockdown offense and explosive offense is one many teams look for, and they have managed to fine-tune their squad to the perfect degree this season. This certainly doesn’t feel like a team that was +120000 to win the championship just a few weeks ago, as they are now one series win away from representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals.

Series Prediction: 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are big favorites to win this series, and it is hard to argue with the odds. The Thunder finished with the best record in the league in the regular season before kicking off the playoffs with an easy sweep. They faltered against the Nuggets, but showed their mental growth by bouncing back with a game seven victory. While I expect this series to be much closer than many others, I do think the Thunder will find a way to win. Minnesota lacks the energy on defense needed to upset the Thunder on the road. After OKC’s dominant regular season with a record-breaking +12.87 margin of victory, they will have home court advantage in this series. Minnesota will be able to match the defensive intensity from the Thunder, but OKC simply has too many options on offense to get bottled up in a seven game series. Jalen Williams has been unable to replicate his strong regular season, but he is due for a big series. The Thunder have a trio of guards off the bench who can also do damage, and the Timberwolves only have one Jaden McDaniels to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Minnesota will be able to shoot its way to victory for long stretches, but the cards are stacked against them in this series. It is hard to imagine them going better than 1-3 in Oklahoma City this series, but it is equally as difficult to see them go 3-0 at home. They will be able to take this one down to the wire, but the Thunder will ultimately prevail. 

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder in 7 Games

Best Bets:
While my official prediction will be on the Thunder to win this series, all the value is with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is a tempting +280 to advance, but we will instead take their +1.5 game series line at +130 odds. The Timberwolves would be very disappointed if they lost in six games or fewer, and it is honestly surprising to see the Thunder heavily favored to win in six or fewer games. Minnesota is better than the current shallow Nuggets squad, and the Thunder depth was only barely able to escape to this round. The Timberwolves will be hungry for some court action after nearly a week off, and fresh legs will help them combat the Thunder’s energy. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they won the series, but the sharper play is to take the +130 odds on the +1.5 line. 

For the second bet of the series, we will swing for the fences with Anthony Edwards to lead the series in points at +230. While this may feel like a correlated bet with the series spread, Edwards may surprisingly score more if the Timberwolves lose. Thunder head coach Mark Diagneault will happily pull Gilgeous-Alexander if the Thunder pull away, while Edwards will almost certainly stay on the court. He also doesn’t have to share the ball with anyone outside of Randle, while the Thunder have no shortage of shooters to count on. Considering Gilgeous-Alexander only scored 2.5 more PPG than Edwards in the playoffs thus far, the +230 odds make this worth a wager heading into this series. 

Top Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) Games +130

Pick: Anthony Edwards to be the Top Scorer +230

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