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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 10/31/2025 vs. Indiana Pacers

by Spencer Toth - 10/31/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Indiana Pacers Kristaps Porzingis

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Atlanta Hawks weekday game, while providing best bets along the way. Using in-depth knowledge on both the Hawks and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the year. 

On Wednesday night, the Atlanta Hawks got a much-needed victory, taking down the Nets 117-111. While another tally in the win column is always the primary target, losing Trae Young to injury will be the primary takeaway from that contest. Mouhamed Gueye fell into Young’s leg, bending Young’s knee awkwardly as he came to the floor. Young left the game in the first quarter and was ruled out with a sprained knee, and no timeline has been given for his return to the floor. The Hawks didn’t give up without their playmaker, turning the ball over only 8 times en route to a crucial victory. Jalen Johnson led the way with 23 points, and the Hawks' defense was finally able to get the stops they needed when it mattered most. 

From a betting perspective, we had a great day going 2-1. The Hawks won on the money line, which was our biggest bet of the night, but fell short of covering the -7.5 point spread, which was a one-unit bet. In the player prop department, Onyeka Okongwu edged over his 1.5 assist line at plus money odds, making it another profitable night in the books. 

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Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (2-3, 0-0 in the NBA Cup) visit Indiana to take on the Pacers (0-4, 0-0 in the NBA Cup). This is the first NBA Cup game for both of these teams, and starting off with a victory is crucial for their tournament success. The Pacers and Hawks find themselves in a group with the Raptors, Wizards, and mighty Cavaliers, meaning a loss here could spell the end of their respective tournament runs before they even get going. A 3-1 or better record will be needed to book their spot in the next round, and that may not even be enough due to point differential. Every bucket matters that much more in the NBA Cup, and both head coaches will have undoubtedly fired their squads up for this matchup. 

Five months ago, the Indiana Pacers had just knocked off the New York Knicks to book their place in the NBA Finals. Fast forward to today, and things could not be worse in Indiana. Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season, the Pacers are 0-4, and the injury list continues to grow with each passing game. The Pacers lost Myles Turner in the offseason, while Benedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin, and TJ McConnell are all out with injuries. That leaves just Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith left on the court from their playoff squad, and the momentum in Indiana has come to a screeching halt. 

The Pacers are 0-4 this year, but they haven’t all been bad losses. They lost to OKC in overtime and fell to the Timberwolves and Mavericks by a combined six points, both of which were on the road. A four-game home stand could not have come at a better time for the Pacers, and an NBA Cup victory could get them right back on track. However, they are coming up against a feisty Hawks squad that will not be an easy opponent at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. 

Atlanta may be without Trae Young, but losing one star is better than having to deal with the five rotation players missing in Indiana. Atlanta still has a serious talent advantage in this matchup, and this could be a blessing in disguise for their role players.
Due to Young’s injury, offensive talents like Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will get more time on the ball. Young is clearly the best player on the team on that end of the court, and if his other starters can develop in his absence, the Hawks will be an even better contender when he returns. While everyone will get more opportunities, the real benefactor is Jalen Johnson. 

Johnson missed the second half of the season last year with a torn labrum,   and his absence was felt in Atlanta. He is healthy, ready to go, and the Hawks fanbase is excited to see what he can do over a full 82-game campaign. Johnson brings a promising blend of offensive and defensive abilities, which is perfect for Atlanta as they lack other two-way stars. He can create his own offense, distribute the basketball, and is a menace in the paint. Dyson Daniels lacks the offensive capabilities to take over as the primary ball handler in Atlanta, meaning that responsibility will fall on Johnson’s shoulders. If he can continue his development, Johnson could be the All-Star teammate for Young the Hawks have been craving. 

In this matchup, the clear edge goes to Atlanta. The Pacers are rolling out a starting five that lacks real quality outside of Siakam, and breaking down the Hawks' defense will not be an easy task. Even though Atlanta is on the road, this will be a more one-sided contest than the -2.5 point spread suggests. Indiana’s long list of injuries is unfortunate to see, and their lack of ball movement will really hurt them tonight. Unable to build chemistry, the Pacers are 27th in the league in assists this season. Siakam will be able to occasionally score in the post, but relying on isolation offense is not the game plan to beat a defensively vulnerable team like Atlanta. The Pacers need to move the ball to beat the Hawks, but that is something they have been unwilling or incapable of doing. For the first bet of the night, we will happily lay -2.5 points with the Hawks. Atlanta has a deep rotation that will be able to outrun the Pacers, who are forced to roll out undrafted rookies off the bench. This is a big game for the Hawks, who have legitimate NBA Cup aspirations, and seeing them pick up a road win would be the first step in the right direction. Since teams have learned that point differential is crucial in the NBA Cup, they have been looking to run up the score when they have the advantage. I expect that to be the case again tonight, which is why we will also be targeting some alternate spreads. You can take any number you please, but we will go with -6.5 at +145, -10.5 at +235, -14.5 at +400, and -19.5 at +760. Normally, point differential is irrelevant, and teams take their foot off the gas late in games, but that won’t be the case tonight. Spreading our wager across alternate spreads is a great way to secure a potentially large payout with minimal risk. 

For the second bet of the night, we will be taking Jalen Johnson over 25.5 points and assists. Johnson is the primary scorer in this offense and will have no shortage of opportunities to rack up assists. We saw that once Young exited against the Nets, what role he took, and we can expect a similar usage tonight. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) -110 1 Unit

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-6.5) +145 1 Unit

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-10.5) +235 1 Unit

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-14.5) +400 0.5 Units

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-19.5) +760 0.5 Units

Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 25.5 Points + Assists -110 3 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 2-0

Spread: 1-2

Total: 0-2

Player Props: 4-1

Overall: 7-5
Total Units: Down 1.8 Units

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