NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 10/24/2025 vs. Orlando Magic

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In the Hawks' season opener, Atlanta was smashed by the Raptors 138-118 in front of their home crowd. Their inability to hustle on the glass, especially on the defensive end, allowed the Raptors to break their franchise record for points scored in a season opener. Toronto outrebounded Atlanta 54-34, while posting an astonishing 86 points in the paint. Five fouls early in the third quarter for Dyson Daniels certainly hurt their defense, and it was no coincidence that the Raptors exploded for 45 third-quarter points when he was forced to take a seat. Their offense did their job, with Jalen Johnson, Trae Young, and Kristaps Porzingis all scoring 20+ points each, but it is hard to win games when allowing 138 points against.
While it wasn’t a good night for the Hawks, it was our first profitable night of the season as we went 3-1 on our bets. The Raptors easily covered the +5.5 point spread, while Gradey Dick flew over his totals. He cleared the 7.5 points line and the 10+ alternate total in the first half, finishing with 21 points off the bench. Our lone loss came on the Under 27.5 P+R+A on RJ Barrett, who finished with a game-high 25 points and 38 P+R+A.
Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (0-1) fly south to Orlando to take on the Magic (1-0). Orlando kicked off its season with a come-from-behind victory over the Miami Heat, winning 125-121 after trailing by 8 points with 6 minutes left to play. Orlando and Atlanta are two teams both ready to take the next step this season, and this promises to be a fascinating matchup between a pair of Eastern Conference contenders.
The Magic have built their identity on the back of their strong defensive play, and now have the offensive superstars they need to make a deep playoff run. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner got their third co-star in the offseason, after the Magic shipped away a boatload of draft capital to acquire Desmond Bane. Bane appears to be the missing spark the Magic needed to elevate themselves into a true contender, and a visit from the Hawks is a perfect measuring stick in the early stage of the season. Unlike many other contenders with a strong superstar or two surrounded by quality role players, the Magic have three legitimate superstars. Banchero was expected to be the face of the franchise when he was drafted first overall in 2022, but Wagner has been just as impactful through the first few years of their respective careers. Wagner really transformed into an offensive threat when Banchero got hurt last year, and the Magic know they can stay effective as long as either of them is on the court. Bane is a proven leading scorer himself after his time in Memphis, and head coach Jamahl Mosley will keep at least two of them on the court for a large majority of the season.
Orlando is a formidable opponent, but the Hawks will still feel they have a fighting chance to get their first win of the season tonight. They will be livid with their performance against the Raptors, as they weren’t outplayed, but rather outhustled by their Canadian visitors. State Farm Arena was empty by the third quarter, as a lifeless showing from the Hawks was not how they wanted to start the season.
There were some positives to take away. Trae Young is still dominant on the offensive end, and the return of Jalen Johnson from injury was a welcome sight for the Hawks fanbase. The chemistry between their offseason signings will develop as the weeks go on, as will their effort on the defensive end. Nickeil Alexander-Walker will play a big role as the first man off the bench, and he showed he is more than a traditional 3-and-D player on the wings.
Last season, this would have been a classic matchup between the fifth-best offense and the league's best defense. However, the Magic will be much more offensive this season, while the Hawks' new signings have turned their focus to thriving on the defensive end. While Atlanta will likely come out angry, that doesn’t mean they are a lock to win this game. In fact, the way the Magic will be able to combine stout defense and fluid offense, I expect them to hand Atlanta their second loss of the season.
For the first bet of the night, we won’t be touching the -200 moneyline and will be laying four and a half points with the hosting Magic. Orlando has been patiently rebuilding over the last half-decade, and now has the stars they need to really compete this season. A shaky start against the Heat has them still at a reasonable price here, as a minimal spread for the Magic at home is something we can get behind. Atlanta is a team that I intend to generally fade in the opening weeks of the season while they work on their chemistry, before tailing them after that. This is a talented roster that will succeed; they just won’t find immediate success like the Magic will. Outside of Bane, the Magic’s starting five are entering their fourth season together in Orlando, which will allow them to find early-season success.
For the second bet of the night, we will be taking Over 235.5 points. Last year, taking an over like this in a Magic game would have been a death wish. However, we saw they are willing to play at a faster pace this year, have found their rhythm on offense, and aren’t the rock-solid defensive unit they once were. The Hawks and Raptors combined for 256 points on Wednesday despite shooting a combined 16/60 from three-point range. This has all the makings of another high-scoring, fast-paced contest, and this 235.5 point line is an achievable total.
Finally, we will be sprinkling on Wendell Carter Jr. to go over his 15.5 Points+Rebounds line. Carter Jr. doesn’t have any competition at center with Moritz Wagner hurt, and he will get the minutes he needs to reach this total. He secured 17 P+R in 29 minutes of action in the season opener, and I expect him to get around 30 minutes once again tonight. The fast pace of play from Atlanta will leave plenty of rebounding opportunities for him to vacuum up, and he won’t be afraid to get on the scoresheet either against a relatively soft matchup in Porzingis.
Pick: Orlando Magic (-4.5) 2 Units
Pick: Hawks vs Magic Over 235.5 3 Units
Pick: Wendell Carter Jr. Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds 1 Unit
2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 0-0
Spread: 1-0
Total: 0-0
Player Props: 2-1
Total Units: Up 1.1 Units ($110)
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