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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 11/20/2025 vs. San Antonio Spurs

by Spencer Toth - 11/20/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs San Antonio Spurs Dyson Daniels

All season long, we will be analyzing every Atlanta Hawks weekday game while providing best bets along the way. By focusing on the Hawks, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season on spreads, totals, moneylines, and player props. 

On Tuesday night, Atlanta had their five-game win streak snapped by the red-hot Pistons, losing 120-112. The injury reports were littered with questionables for both teams, but the Hawks ended up undermanned as Kristaps Porzingis, Zaccharie Risacher, and of course, Trae Young were all out. Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren were also questionable for Detroit, but they both played, and the Hawks ended up falling short. Atlanta’s depth was tested in that matchup, as all five starters played 34+ minutes, including Vit Krejci, who made his first start of the season. Jalen Johnson finished with a team-high 25 points, but only 21 points off the bench wasn’t enough for Atlanta to pull off the victory. 

From a betting perspective, we had our first 0-2 night of the season. The Hawks' moneyline at -105 ended up closing at +120 when the injury reports were finalized, which was a one-unit loss. We also lost our Under 230.5 bet for three units, after 13 points were scored in the final 30 seconds to push the total to 232 points. A pair of tough losses is never fun, but we have the chance to make it back tonight. 

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The Atlanta Hawks (9-6) head back on the road to face the San Antonio Spurs (10-4) in a crucial game for both teams. San Antonio is led by MVP candidate Victor Wembanyama, the 2025 rookie of the year Stephon Castle, and second overall pick Dylan Harper. However, all three of those aforementioned stars will be missing tonight's game, leaving the Spurs incredibly shorthanded. Wembanyama is the heart and soul of this team on both ends of the court, and the Hawks will be thankful they don’t have to contain him tonight. All hope is not lost for San Antonio, as they still have several players capable of making an impact tonight.
With Wembanyama on the sidelines for the next few weeks, it will be up to De’Aaron Fox to carry the offensive workload. Fox was the primary scorer during his time in Sacramento, and he is getting used to life in Texas during his first full season with the Spurs. He missed the first 8 games of the season due to injury, but has gotten off to a very productive start since then. His 22.7 PPG is below his career average, but he is far more efficient than he has been at any time in his career. His 51% field goal percentage and 37.5% three-point percentage are among the best of his career, as he has been happy to trail Wembanyama in terms of usage. Now that the towering Frenchman is out, this is his team.
Dyson Daniels will be tasked with slowing down Fox, and the Great Barrier Thief has done a great job at doing so throughout his career. Fox has averaged 22.6 PPG in his eight previous games against Daniels, but his 43% field goal percentage and 28% three-point percentage are both far below his lofty standards. If Daniels can keep Fox from having an efficient night on offense, the Hawks will be in a great position to pull out a crucial road win.
The Spurs still have other talent with Harrison Barnes and Devin Vassell expected to have an expanded role tonight, but they are no match for a healthy Hawks side. Jalen Johnson has been playing the best basketball of his career, Onyeka Okongwu is a menace on both ends of the court, and the Hawks' team chemistry is coming together after a slow start. While Jalen Johnson’s growth is the driving force behind the Hawks' success without Trae Young, it has also been the surprising play from Nickeil Alexander-Walker that has led to their early-season success. Alexander-Walker was expected to be a 3-and-D sixth man for Atlanta, but was thrust into a starting role due to Young’s injury. While he doesn’t have the same playmaking ability as Young, Alexander-Walker has been able to consistently give the Hawks a lift in the scoring department on a nightly basis. His 18.3 PPG is more than double his average over the last three seasons, and his 44.2% from the field is a career high. Alexander-Walker doesn’t often generate his own offense, but if he is left open, he can make defenses pay. 

Tonight’s matchup won’t be the star-studded affair we thought it would be when this game was scheduled, but it is a crucial game for both of these teams, as they jockey for positioning in their respective conferences. While it would hurt the Hawks’ chances if neither Porzingis nor Risacher can suit up, even without that duo, they are still the better side. There is no spread tonight as both teams are -110 on the moneyline, and we have no choice but to side with Atlanta. Johnson will be the best player on the court, and as long as Daniels can contain Fox, this will be the Hawks' game to lose. Atlanta just won five straight road games on their recent West Coast trip, so the fact that they are away from home doesn’t deter me from taking them tonight. They are surprisingly 7-2 on the road and 2-4 at home this year, and will add to their impressive record with a win tonight. 

For the second bet of the night, we will take De’Aaron Fox to stay under 25.5 points. This is a line he has cleared in 2/6 games this season, and with Daniels draped on him throughout the contest, he will struggle to consistently get good looks at the hoop. The other injuries have inflated this line too high, as Fox will need at least 25 shot attempts to reach this total. I think he falls short of that line more often than not, making the under the way to go. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline -110 4 Units

Pick: De’Aaron Fox Under 25.5 Points -110 2 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 5-1

Spread: 9-2

Total: 0-5

Player Props: 9-2

Overall: 23-10
Total Units: Up 23.6 Units

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