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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 11/25/2025 vs. Washington Wizards

by Spencer Toth - 11/25/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Washington Wizards Jalen Johnson

You have found the right place for all your Atlanta Hawks best bets, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every weekday Hawks game, all season long. By using in-depth analysis to study trends from around the league, we will be able to generate a consistent profit throughout the year.
On Thursday night, the Atlanta Hawks fell to the San Antonio Spurs 135-126. The Hawks played well for much of that contest, but a huge free-throw advantage for the Spurs gave the home team the victory. They were led by 38 points from Nickeil Alexander-Walker and shot 54% from behind the arc, but it still wasn’t enough when the Spurs got an extra 17 free throw attempts. 

From a betting perspective, we went 0-2. Atlanta failed to win with a -110 pick ‘em line, while De’Aaron Fox’s free throws in the final minute edged him over the 25.5 point line as he finished with exactly 26. 

The Hawks entered the weekend pegged back at 9-7, but back-to-back wins over the Pelicans and Hornets allowed them to vault back up the standings. Taking care of business against bad teams has been a struggle for the Hawks, but their depth and top-end talent allowed them to handle those aforementioned bottom feeders. A road blowout win over the Pelicans allowed Atlanta to improve on their stunning 8-3 road record this season. Kristaps Porzingis made an emphatic return from injury, erupting for 30 points, while the Hawks held the Pelicans to just 98 points on 41% from the floor.
The second night of their weekend back-to-back finally gave State Farm Arena something to cheer about after the Hawks started 2-4 at home. They edged out the Charlotte Hornets 113-110, with Jalen Johnson taking his turn as leading scorer for Atlanta. They battled through tired legs to pick up the win, moving them out of the play-in tournament position in the East. The Hawks have had eight different leading scorers this season, flexing their depth without Trae Young. They have now built a complete offense for the talented passer to use when he returns in a couple of weeks, and the bonus is that the Hawks finally have a winning record as they look to avoid the play-in tournament for a fifth consecutive season. 

Tonight, Atlanta (11-7, 1-1 in the NBA Cup) hits the road to the Nation’s capital as they take on the Washington Wizards (1-15, 0-2 in the NBA Cup). This is a crucial NBA Cup game for the Hawks, as a defeat here would eliminate them from the competition. There are no free wins in the NBA, but a game against the lowly Wizards is as close as it gets. Washington has only one win this season, and this represents a great opportunity for the Hawks to run up the score. Atlanta already lost to the Raptors in the NBA Cup, and it is looking as though they will need to sneak into the knockout stage with the best second-place record in the Eastern Conference. They don’t have the best point differential at +8, which means this is a real opportunity to improve in that category against Washington. Washington is 0-2 in the NBA Cup with a -63 point differential, having allowed 288 points in their two Cup games. The Hawks don’t only need a win tonight, but they will be going all out for a blowout victory to keep their NBA Cup hopes alive. 

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Before we get into how the Hawks can win this game, it is important to break down how bad the Wizards truly are. Washington has one win in 16 games; they have lost 14 in a row, with ten of those defeats coming by double digits. They have the worst defensive rating in the league, they have the third-worst offense, and it is no surprise to see them in dead last through the first 20% of the season. The Wizards can blame bad luck in the NBA draft lottery for their extended rebuild, but the reality is this is a team full of young prospects playing far below expectations. They rank inside the bottom ten in shooting percentage, assists, steals, turnovers, and even free throw percentage. Normally, I would mention who is promising for the Wizards, but no one is averaging 19+ PPG, 9+ Rebounds, or 5+ assists. The Wizards' team unity of being terrible could be manipulated into a character-building exercise for the franchise, but I am really grasping at straws to find positives right now. There isn’t much this team does right, and the extra incentive for the Hawks to pile on the points could make this ugly in a hurry. 

Atlanta can’t afford to overlook Washington in this matchup, as they have a nasty habit of underperforming against the bottom ten teams over the last few seasons. Getting the big wins against contenders has been fun for Atlanta, but taking care of business against the bottom feeders is just as important. The Hawks have a clean injury report heading into tonight, and there is no reason this team can’t add onto their impressive road record with a blowout win. The fastest way to run up the score is with the three-point shot, making Nickeil Alexander-Walker a prime candidate for a big game. Alexander-Walker has exceeded expectations in Atlanta, transforming from a role player off the bench into a legitimate superstar. His 19.3 PPG is double his career high, and his consistency from behind the arc has been remarkable. Alexander-Walker still needs his teammates to help him generate offense, but there is no shortage of ball handlers in Atlanta to do so. Jalen Johnson has emerged as a two-way threat, while Dyson Daniels has shown flashes of brilliance in Trae Young’s absence. Once you add in the explosive play from Onyeka Okongwu off the bench or in the starting role, it is no surprise to see the Hawks getting off to a flying start this season. 

In tonight’s game, we will be using one of my favorite NBA betting strategies. In the regular season, point differential is not used as a tiebreaker, meaning there is no difference between a one-point win and a 40-point blowout for the victor. However, point differential is everything in the NBA Cup, and the Hawks have a serious incentive to run up the score. They come into this game as -10.5 point favorites, and while we will be playing that spread, we will also be taking alternate spreads for a potentially huge payout. We took the Hawks -2.5, -6.5, -10.5, -14.5, and -19.5 against the Pacers in their first NBA Cup game, and the Hawks went on to win by 20 points. The initial spread was a mere -2.5, which gave us lots of room to ladder, but tonight’s -10.5 point spread will not deter us from a similar strategy. We will be taking the Hawks -10.5 (-110), -14.5 (+155), -18.5 (+275), -23.5 (+450), and even -29.5 (+760) tonight. The Hawks' poor point differential, combined with some basic math, means they will need to win this one by at least 30 points if they want a chance to advance. A focused performance from their talented roster could certainly result in a massive win, and the long odds make it worth a sprinkle tonight. Normally, I would add in a player prop or two to the bet list, but this unique NBA Cup opportunity makes the spread and the alternate spread worthy of our entire betting budget for tonight. You don’t have to take the exact spreads and lines I suggested for your own bets tonight, and you could even ladder every point all the way up to the maximum margin of victory your sportsbook allows. Atlanta is primed for a big win, and these opportunities don’t come around often. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-10.5) -110 2 Units

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-14.5) +155 2 Units

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-18.5) +275 1 Unit

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-23.5) +450 1 Unit

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-29.5) +760 1 Unit

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 5-2

Spread: 9-2

Total: 0-5

Player Props: 9-3

Overall: 23-12
Total Units: Up 19.6 Units

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