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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 11/28/2025 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

by Spencer Toth - 11/28/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping Cleveland Cavaliers Donovan Mitchell

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every weekday Atlanta Hawks game, while providing best bets along the way. By dialing in on the Hawks' unique style of play, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season. 

On Wednesday night, the Atlanta Hawks suffered an embarrassing 132-113 defeat against the Washington Wizards. Not only did Atlanta hand Washington their second win of the season, but they were also eliminated from the NBA Cup with the defeat. The starting five for the Hawks came out incredibly flat, losing the first quarter 45-22. The Hawks did cut the lead down to ten in the second quarter, but they never got closer and entered the fourth quarter trailing 111-78. CJ McCollum exploded for 46 points on ten made three pointers, while Corey Kispert’s 4/4 stat line from deep in the first quarter gave the Wizards a big early lead. Jalen Johnson had a season-low of 7 points for the Hawks, while Kristaps Porzingis led the way with a team-high 22 points. 

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From a betting perspective, we expected a Hawks blowout, sprinkled on several alternate spreads, but fell way short. This was a one-sided contest from the opening tip-off, but not for the team we expected. The NBA Cup dream may be over for Atlanta, but the Hawks still find themselves in sixth place in the East, with plenty of basketball left to be played this season. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (11-8, 1-2 in the NBA Cup) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (12-7, 2-1 in the NBA Cup). The Cavaliers still have a shot at qualifying for the knockout stages of the NBA Cup, but will need to not only win but win big against Atlanta to do so. The Cavaliers have been incredibly banged up in recent weeks, as Darius Garland, De’Andre Hunter, Jarrett Allen, and Lonzo Ball have all missed at least four games this year. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Cavaliers are expected to have their full complement of superstars for tonight’s game, which makes them the most dangerous team in the Eastern Conference. 

Cleveland’s NBA Cup hopes rely on other teams, but at 2-1 with a +33 point differential, they still have a realistic chance at qualification. The Raptors already locked up East Group A with their 4-0 record, while three other 2-1 teams are looking to secure the final Wild Card spot. A 17-point win would give them the tiebreaker over the Miami Heat, who are also 3-1 with a +49 point differential, having played all four games. East Group B features the 3-0 Magic and 2-1 Pistons facing off tonight, both of whom have excellent point differentials. There is no easy way to break down the Cavaliers' clinching scenarios, but what they do know is that they need to win, they probably need to win by double digits, but even a 20+ point victory may not be enough. 

With that in mind, the Cavaliers' healthy roster is expected to roll tonight, as they are five and a half point road favorites in Atlanta. Few teams can match the Hawks’ top-end talent combined with strong depth, but the Cavaliers' recent additions off the injury report have given them an elite starting five with a comfortable bench to back them up. The best player on the court will be Donovan Mitchell, who has done an excellent job of racking up wins with a rotating supporting cast around him. He is averaging 29.9 PPG this season on 50.3% from the field, both of which are career highs. Mitchell is not only shouldering a majority of the offensive workload, but he is also taking higher-quality shots in the process. The small sample size, combined with a high usage rate, may change, but Mitchell’s efficient year in the backcourt will not suddenly drop off. Now that he gets guard partner Darius Garland back from injury, Mitchell will not need to generate all of his own offense, and Garland is very comfortable with the ball in his hands. Down low, the Cavaliers have a serious size advantage with both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in the paint, which will be difficult for the Hawks to handle. Mobley has really developed his three-point shot in the offseason, and now that he will get to play alongside Allen, instead of without him, he will be able to space the floor even more on offense. Allen and Mobley are also both DPOY candidates, making it very difficult for Atlanta to break them down on the inside. 

The Hawks looked truly terrible against the Wizards, in what was their worst game of the season by a lot. Their offense was disjointed, their defense failed to close out shooters, and they didn’t look like they wanted to be there. Maybe it was the fact that they overlooked the Wizards, maybe it was just hot shooting from Washington, but either way, head coach Quin Snyder was not happy. He sent a message by pulling his entire starting group in the first quarter, and the Hawks will have been undoubtedly drilled over the last 48 hours. A response is expected against the Cavaliers, but we can’t bank on them taking down a motivated Cleveland team with their NBA Cup hopes on the line. 

For the first bet of the night, we will lay the points with the road team at -5.5. While we won’t go as crazy as we did in the Hawks-Wizards game, there is still value in a big Cavaliers win, so we will take -10.5 (+165) and -17.5 (+350). The Cavaliers have the better offense, the better defense, they just got healthy, and have much more to play for. The Hawks won’t look as bad as they did against Washington, but it is clear their offensive luck has dried up, and they need Trae Young back. Atlanta also got exposed by the lowly Wizards with the deep ball, and the Cavaliers take the most threes in the league, with more than 50% of their possessions resulting in a deep ball attempt. They will look to run up the score early, and the Hawks didn’t show any resilience when they fell behind against Washington. This one could quickly turn into another blowout, and the Cavaliers are desperate for every point; it could get ugly quickly. 

For the second bet of the night, we will take Evan Mobley to hit one three at -265, and two threes at +180. Mobley has scored at least one three-pointer in 15/18 games this season, and two or more in 7/18. His willingness to shoot the deep ball has transformed his game this year, and the return of Allen from injury will give him the green light from behind the arc. Garland is the best playmaker in Cleveland, and he will not hesitate to set the big man up with open looks from three-point land. 

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) 3 Units

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5) +165 1 Unit

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers (-17.5) +350 1 Unit

Pick: Evan Mobley 1+ Three -265 4 Units

Pick: Evan Mobley 2+ Threes +180 1 Unit

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 5-2

Spread: 9-7

Total: 0-5

Player Props: 9-3

Overall: 23-17
Total Units: Up 12.6 Units

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