NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 11/7/2025 vs. Toronto Raptors

by Spencer Toth - 11/7/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping Kristaps Porzingis

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On Wednesday night, the Hawks smashed the Orlando Magic 127-112 after taking a 21-point lead into the fourth quarter. It was a balanced team effort on the offensive end, with all five starters scoring 15+ points. Zaccharie Risacher led the way with 21 points, while Onyeka Okongwu added 14 points and 7 rebounds off the bench. The Hawks were dominated on the glass, had more turnovers, but their hot shooting allowed them to cruise to victory over the Magic for the second time this season.

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From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. The Hawks won outright as +3.5 point underdogs, and we were able to secure a sweat-free winner with their spread. We also took under 229.5 points, but 128 second-half points contributed to the score sailing over that line.

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (4-4, 1-0 in the NBA Cup) welcome the Toronto Raptors (4-4, 1-0 in the NBA Cup) to State Farm Arena. This is a crucial NBA Cup game for both of these teams, as a victory on Friday night would put them in pole position to win the group. Atlanta crushed the Indiana Pacers 128-108 in their first NBA Cup game, not only winning but piling on the points for a potential point differential tiebreaker. The Raptors also found success, winning a tough road game against the short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers. The stakes could not be higher for this early-season affair, as tangible success in the NBA Cup could be the platform these aspiring contenders need to take the next step in the regular season.

This is not the first time these two teams have met this season, as they opened up the year against one another last month. Toronto won 138-118 before then losing their next four games. The Raptors have bounced back nicely with three straight wins since then, while Atlanta also steadied the ship to claw back to a .500 record.
In their previous meeting, the Raptors hounded Atlanta on the defensive end before pushing the pace on offense. It was 100% energy 100% of the time from Toronto, and the Hawks will be expecting a similar work rate when they host the Raptors tonight. While losing Trae Young obviously hurts the Hawks' offense, they have been able to play better defense with their point guard on the bench. Young has been a defensive liability throughout his career, and he was one of the reasons the Raptors were able to run and gun their way to victory that night. Atlanta’s identity changes with Young not on the court, and they have a much better chance of matching Toronto’s tenacity with their current roster.

The opening weeks of the season were always going to be difficult for the Hawks, as a brand-new roster needs time to gel on the floor. Young’s injury certainly didn’t help, but what the Hawks have been able to do in his absence has been remarkable. They are still in contention in the early stages of the season and are now one win away from getting a foothold in the knockout stage of the NBA Cup. Jalen Johnson has stepped up as a real leader for this team, while Kristaps Porzingis has given the Hawks much more flexibility on offense compared to when they had Clint Capela at center. While these changes have been promising, the early-season MVP in Atlanta is Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Alexander-Walker is a traditional 3-and-D wing that didn’t generate too much buzz when he came to Atlanta. He averaged 9.4 PPG last year in 25.3 minutes of action, and his career high in PPG came all the way back in 2021 (11.0 PPG). His durability was a big selling point for the Hawks, as Alexander-Walker played all 82 games in back-to-back seasons and finished sixth in Sixth Man of the Year voting last season. While the sample size is still small with the Hawks, he appears to be the perfect fit in Atlanta. Alexander-Walker is averaging 17.3 PPG this season, with a respectable 3.3 assists. Both of those numbers would shatter his career highs, as he has become a crucial member of this offense. Dyson Daniels will happily take a backseat on the offensive end, which has allowed Alexander-Walker to be the second option behind Johnson. His surprising scoring has given the Hawks real depth on offense, which is something they will need against a surging Raptors side.

In this matchup, it is hard to overlook the Raptors, given their recent form. Toronto’s starting five of Barnes, Ingram, Quickley, Barrett, and Poeltl is inside the top five in terms of salary, and they are finally playing up to their potential. Ingram appears to be the missing piece the Raptors have been craving, and their bench unit can match the intensity the starting five brings on a nightly basis. Atlanta may be able to match the Raptors in the early stages, but Toronto’s relentless bench, coupled with a strong starting five, makes them the way to go. The +2 point spread represents solid value, but we will go for the slightly higher price with the +120 moneyline on the Raptors.

For the second bet of the night, we will take the Over at 235.5 points. This is going to be a very fast-paced contest, and the easy fast-break points will push the scoreline over this total. The Raptors love to get out in transition, and neither side does a very good job at getting back on defense in a timely fashion.

Finally, we will target Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s 16.5 point total. He has scored at least 16 points in seven straight games, and a fast-paced Raptors playstyle will give him several opportunities for easy shots in transition. With Young still out, Alexander-Walker and Johnson are responsible for the perimeter offense, and his point total prop hasn’t quite climbed to where it should be.

Pick: Toronto Raptors Moneyline +120 3 Units

Pick: Raptors vs Hawks Over 235.5 -110 1 Unit

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 16.5 Points -115 2 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 2-0

Spread: 7-2

Total: 0-3

Player Props: 5-1

Overall: 14-6
Total Units: Up 10.4 Units

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Pick:	Tijuana -165
Start:	November 7, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Liga MX Take Tijuana -165 over Atlas (10 p.m. EST, Friday November 7) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time – a DRAW is a loser here) Tijuana have qualified for the postseason and will compete in at least a play-in match but they have a chance to move up with three clubs within three points above them on the table. Atlas was eliminated over the weekend so they don’t have any motivation here. They are probably already making offseason plans. Atlas has the second worst defense in Liga MX heading into matchday 17, the final matchday of the season. They have lost four of their last five on the road, with only a draw against lowly Mazatlan to show for their recent road efforts. Tijuana haven’t exactly been racking up the points themselves, but they have had a difficult schedule. Make no mistake, this team has stunk on the road, a completely different club than what they have looked like at home. At home, here in Tijuana, they have been very impressive and have taken points in every matchup this season. In their last two, they took draws against Toluca (defending champs) and championship contender Monterrey. They beat championship contender Cruz Azul here earlier in the season. We expected this line to be heavy for Tijuana, possibly over -200, so we think there is great value here. Read More Read Less

NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 11/7/2025 vs. Toronto Raptors

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