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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 12/19/2025 vs. San Antonio Spurs

by Spencer Toth - 12/19/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs San Antonio Luke Kornet

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every weekday Atlanta Hawks game, while providing best bets along the way. 

Last night, the Hawks suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Charlotte Hornets. In what was supposed to be a night of celebration with Trae Young returning, the Hawks got outhustled in their 133-126 defeat. The Hornets took a 24-point lead in the first half thanks to an NBA record 18 first half three-point shots. They finished 24/49 from behind the arc, while Atlanta went ice cold with an 11/37 conversion rate from deep. Other than the shooting from deep, it was a relatively even contest, with both teams having their moments. Young finished with 8 points and 10 assists in 20 minutes of action, as a bulk of the offensive workload fell on the shoulders of Jalen Johnson. It was another monstrous game from Johnson, as he posted 43 points with 11 rebounds and 9 assists, coming very close to his fifth straight triple double. Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 28 points from the bench, finishing with a +23 on the box score. 

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From a betting perspective, we went 2-1. We tailed the Hawks' moneyline for our first pick of the night, but Atlanta fell short of mounting a furious comeback. However, it was still a positive night, as we nailed both of our player props. Alexander-Walker had a juicy +130 price tag on Under 2.5 assists, and he finished with 2 as Young became the primary ballhandler. We also correctly anticipated a drawback in minutes for Zaccharie Risacher, as he finished with a 5/3/1 statline in 20 minutes, cashing Under 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists. It’s not the time to celebrate approaching 20 units of profit this season, as there is still plenty of basketball to be played. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (15-13) head home to host the San Antonio Spurs (19-7). Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, which means whoever wants it more will likely prevail. The stars for both teams, Trae Young and Victor Wembanyama, are coming off injuries, so it would normally be expected to have them sit out the second night of a back-to-back. However, Spurs’ head coach Mitch Johnson has been using a strict minutes restriction for Wembanyama, which will allow him to play 15-20 minutes tonight. For the Hawks, Young’s status is more up in the air, but in all likelihood, Young will also see similar time on the court after playing 20 minutes last night. 

The Hawks are desperate for a victory. Atlanta has lost five of their last seven games, including ugly defeats to the 9-18 Hornets and 6-21 Clippers. The wide-open nature of the Eastern Conference means they are in ninth place, but are only two games back of the third-place Raptors. If Atlanta can string together a few wins, it will be right back at the top of the Eastern Conference. 

This is the matchup where the Hawks will really be missing Kristaps Porzingis. His extended absence due to a puzzling illness has left the Hawks lacking size in the frontcourt, which is not what they want against Victor Wembanyama. Onyeka Okongwu has done a good job at holding down the fort, but Mouhamed Gueye is undersized at 6’11 and 210 pounds to play center. The Hawks will look to match Okongwu with Wembanyama whenever possible, but the towering Frenchman will still have a clear path to the basket whenever he pleases.
While the center position has been a real concern for the Hawks, Jalen Johnson’s play at power forward has helped alleviate the stress on the inside. Johnson is having a breakout season for the Hawks, averaging 23.6 PPG, 10.5 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 1.6 steals, all of which are career highs. He has been even more dominant in recent weeks, averaging a 25/12/12 statline with four triple-doubles in his last five games. Johnson has been able to keep this team afloat with Young on the sidelines, and will now have extra help on the offensive end. Defense will still be a concern for Atlanta, but Johnson’s mesmerizing play on both ends of the court has been a real bright spot this season. 

On tonight’s matchup, the Hawks will need to play perfect basketball if they hope to defend their home court. It is not as if the Hawks have turned State Farm Arena into a fortress, as they have gone 5-6 at home this season. While both teams are on a back-to-back, the Spurs had a straightforward 119-94 win over the Wizards last night. That allowed their entire roster to play 26 minutes or less. Meanwhile, the Hawks emptied the gas tank to try to mount a comeback against Charlotte, which ultimately fell short. Four players played 32+ minutes for Atlanta, so while both teams are on a back-to-back, the Spurs still have a rest advantage. 

While I would love to take the Hawks in the home underdog role, the short spread (-2.5) with San Antonio is too good to pass up. The Spurs are the fresher, hotter team with legitimate title aspirations. They have the two reigning rookie of the year winners with Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, with no shortage of young talent elsewhere on the roster. The Spurs are inside the top ten in both offensive and defensive rating this season, while the Hawks are in the middle of the pack in both of those key categories. Once you factor in the serious size advantage the Spurs will have on the inside, taking the Spurs with a short spread is an easy choice. 

For the second bet of the night, we will take Victor Wembanyama to score under 1.5 threes at -120 odds. Wembanyama will be on a minutes restriction tonight, and I don’t envision him drifting behind the arc very often. The Hawks are seriously undersized, which will encourage the capable shooter to hang around the basket tonight. He has gone 4/10 from behind the arc in three games since returning from injury, staying under 1.5 three-pointers in two of three games. This is a great price for a likely prop, as fewer minutes and an incentive to get inside will see him fall short of this total. 

Finally, we will take Luke Kornet to go over 13.5 Points+Rebounds. Kornet is the only other legitimate center on the Spurs roster, and he will see his usual 25.3 minutes of action on the second night of a two-game set. Kornet isn’t afraid to battle in the paint, he never drifts behind the arc, and he will be able to clear this line. He has done so in two straight and four of his last five games, and this specific matchup makes it a great spot to ride the hot hand. 

Pick: San Antonio Spurs (-2.5) 2 Units

Pick: Victor Wembanyama Under 1.5 Threes -120 3 Units

Pick: Luke Kornet Over 13.5 Points+Rebounds 5 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 5-4

Spread: 12-10

Total: 0-6

Player Props: 18-7

Overall: 35-27

Total Units: Up 18.0 Units

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