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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 12/5/2025 vs. Denver Nuggets

by Spencer Toth - 12/5/2025

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Denver Nuggets Nikola Jokic

You have found the right place for all your Atlanta Hawks betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will be providing free best bets for every weekday Hawks game this season. By dialing in on the Hawks roster and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the year. 

On Wednesday night, the Atlanta Hawks had one of their worst games of the year, falling to the Clippers 115-92. The Hawks have only been held under 100 points three times this season, but they have now posted their season low in back-to-back contests. A last-second scratch for Jalen Johnson certainly had an impact, but the rest of the Hawks still have no excuses for a lifeless performance. Even though Atlanta shot better from three-point range, the Clippers collected 16 extra rebounds and generated four extra steals. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden combined for 48 points and 14 assists, while Kobe Sanders had a breakout game off the bench with 17 points. 

From a betting perspective, we went 0-4. We followed the same rationale for Dyson Daniels to rack up steals against James Harden as we did against Cade Cunningham, and he fell one steal short as he ended with 2 takeaways. Harden was incredibly responsible with the basketball, posting a season-low one turnover. Finally, we took the over with a very low total, but the Hawks scratching Johnson combined with a lack of effort on offense saw the game total fall way short. We are still well up on the season and will have plenty of chances to make it back throughout the season. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (13-10) host Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (15-6) at State Farm Arena. Anytime a player of Jokic’s caliber comes to town, the spotlight will be brighter, and the three-time MVP is having another spectacular season. Injuries to his supporting cast will mean the Hawks may have a chance to pull off the upset, but fading a player of Jokic’s caliber is never a fun proposition. 

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The continued dominance of Nikola Jokic has desensitized the media to his greatness, but this man deserves every ounce of praise he receives. He was in the top three in rebounds, assists, and points last season, while he also chipped in a career high 1.8 steals per game. This year, Jokic is leading the league in both assists and rebounds, with his 11.1 assists per game nearly two more than the next closest player. This level of greatness doesn’t come around often, and it will be a special night in Atlanta regardless of the final score. 

After starting the season 12-3, the Nuggets have alternated wins and losses in their last six games. Injuries to Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, and now Spencer Jones have hurt the Nuggets' depth, leaving Jokic and Jamal Murray to do it alone on the offensive end. Surprisingly, the Nuggets have lost four straight at home, while they have won eight straight on the road. While it could be a mere coincidence, the reality is that Jokic will deliver special moments on the court regardless of the venue, which allows Denver to play confident basketball all over the country. 

The Hawks will have one goal tonight, and that will be to shut down Jokic on the offensive end. The Nuggets lack a lot of creativity outside of the big man, but Atlanta has the perfect roster needed to slow him down. Kristaps Porzingis is still questionable to play, but even if he can’t suit up, Onyeka Okongwu has the physicality necessary to slow down Jokic. Foul trouble will be a concern, as Okongwu consistently finds himself racking up fouls, but if he can defend Jokic without fouling, the Hawks can pull off this upset. Jokic has turned into a pass-first player this season, which means the Hawks will need to be patient and not collapse around him. If they can allow Okongwu, Johnson, or even Risacher to do their job, Jokic will be forced into uncomfortable shots rather than effortlessly finding the open man. While he will be able to pull off circus shots once in a while, an off-balance Jokic heave is still better for the Hawks than him setting up a teammate for a wide-open look from deep. 

The questionable status for Jalen Johnson has left a cloud of doubt around this matchup, but he is usually durable and would not be listed as questionable if he didn’t have a chance to play. A ‘questionable’ for Johnson means a very different thing than a ‘questionable’ for the frail Porzingis, and I expect Johnson to suit up and Porzingis to stay on the bench. 

With that in mind, there is no reason the Hawks should be getting 6.5 points at home. Both of these teams have been better on the road this season, but this large spread appears to disregard home-court advantage anyway. While Atlanta is dealing with injuries of their own, they are still the deeper side compared to Denver. Losing Aaron Gordon’s impact on both ends of the floor hurts the Nuggets’ rhythm, and it is not as if Cameron Johnson has made an incredible impact since moving to Denver. If the Hawks can take away the passing lanes for Jokic and turn him into a scorer, they will have the best chance to pull off an upset. While I won’t go as far as to call for a Hawks win, taking the points with the home team is never a bad idea. 

For the second and third bets of the night, we will be targeting Jokic. The Hawks don’t have a physical defender to deter Jokic from getting to the hoop, which will allow him to turn back the clock and focus on scoring rather than assisting. His point prop is at 29.5, and we will take the over, while his assist prop is at 10.5, which looks like an easy under. Recent trends indicate otherwise, but Jokic will have no choice but to get to the hoop in this specific matchup. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (+6.5) 2 Units

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 Points 1 Unit

Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 Assists 1 Unit

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 5-3

Spread: 10-10

Total: 0-6

Player Props: 14-6

Overall: 29-25

Total Units: Up 14.7 Units

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