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NBA Betting Trends Analysis and Expert Handicapping 12/2/2025

by Jeremy Block - 12/2/2025

NBA betting trends and expert handicapping Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets

The holiday season is now in full swing, and as we head into December, several NBA teams find themselves at a crossroads—either rebuilding, extending their winning streaks, or searching for a lifeline. No matter the case, it always impacts how teams perform against the spread, and that’s where I come in to help.

It’s been an unpredictable season, to say the least, with teams stressed by load management, and key injuries. Finding the right bets can feel like a guessing game, especially when teams are struggling to just put a healthy lineup together. But don't worry, I’ve already done the legwork for you. Here are some key trends to keep an eye on heading into the upcoming weeks of the NBA season. 

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Oklahoma City Without Hartenstein's Paint Presence

We’re still a little shy of the halfway point in the NBA season, but it’s been chaotic so far, and yes, that even includes the reigning champs, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Rebounding hasn’t exactly been their strong suit this year, but to say they’re weak on the glass just isn’t true. That said, things just got a whole lot harder. Isiah Hartenstein, who’s been grabbing a team-high 10.7 rebounds per game, is now out for the next two weeks with a right soleus strain (calf injury).

Hartenstein’s been the glue in the paint—not just protecting the rim but cleaning up the glass. Without him, OKC’s going to have to adjust their interior game, and it’s safe to say it won’t be as effective.

Look, the Thunder are already 10-11 ATS this season, but now with Hartenstein sidelined? I expect their defense to slip, and l struggle even more, making them an even bigger target to fade on the spread and back the underdogs.

Kings Needs Sabonis Active

Since we’re on the topic of rebounding, let’s address the Sacramento Kings’ 800-pound gorilla in the room: Domantas Sabonis sidelined due to a partially torn meniscus for the next three weeks, and possibly more.

The Kings have already been at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to rebounding, ranking 29th in the league with just 39.7 boards per game—barely edging out the Brooklyn Nets by two boards. Now, with Sabonis, their only real presence inside, out? That hole just got a whole lot bigger.

Sure, they’ve still got Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to score, but neither of them can do what Sabonis brings to the table. Averaging 17.2 points and 12.3 boards a night, losing him is a massive blow. And with the Kings already struggling to cover on the road (5-6), I’m guaranteeing that they’ll have an even harder time without Sabonis on the floor.

The Grizzlies Weak Backcourt

The Memphis Grizzlies just can't stay out of the headlines, and it’s not for good reasons. Injuries keep piling up, and I’m sure the latest one has Grizzlies fans even more bitter. Point guard Ja Morant suffered a calf injury in the team’s December 1st matchup against the Spurs, and he’s now listed to be out for the next two weeks.

Okay, Jeremy, so what? They’ve got other guys, right? Well, here’s the problem: they don’t. With combo guard Ty Jerome also rehabbing a calf injury and not expected back until January 15th, this Grizzlies team is heading straight into rough waters with no solid ball handler to control the pace or take over when needed.

Here is the thing: Memphis has already been a disaster against the spread as underdogs, with a 3-10 record. Now, without their main backcourt active? I’m expecting things to get a whole lot worse for them. Make sure to fade the Grizzlies against the spread going forward.

Nuggets Lose Braun and Gordon

If any team has made a statement this season, it’s been the Denver Nuggets. With a roster stacked with All-Star talent, a deep bench, and most importantly—veteran chemistry on both ends of the floor, this team has all the tools needed to win the Finals. Well, that was the case, until they found out they’d be without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun until January.

Sure, as long as Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are active, no team is safe. But with two of their best on-ball defenders out, I’m expecting the Nuggets’ defense to have more holes than usual.

Am I telling you to fade the Nuggets every time they play now? Absolutely not. This is still a top-tier playoff team. But, let’s be real—they’ve already shown some defensive cracks, especially at home. With a 5-5 record ATS at Ball Arena, I see Denver struggling to blow teams out like they usually do without Gordon and Braun in the mix for the next month.

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