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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 9/24/2025

NFL survivor pool picks Week 4 Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

We had our first big upset last week, with the Green Bay Packers losing outright to the lowly Cleveland Browns as more than a touchdown favorite. The Falcons and Ravens also lost as respective 5.5-point favorites, and the number of survivor pool entries took a significant hit in Week 3. If you followed last week’s column, you would have gotten a sweat-free victory as the Seattle Seahawks made easy work of the New Orleans Saints with a 31-point win. We also took the Chargers for an alternative selection, who also got the job done. There are a couple of ‘safe’ options to choose from this week, but the Packers reminded us that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. Without further ado, here are your Week 4 survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident. 

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Buffalo Bills (-16.5) Over New Orleans Saints

This is understandably the most confident pick of the week with this massive spread. We will be using up the Bills for our official selection for what should be a free advance to Week 5. This will undoubtedly be a popular pick this week, but there aren’t many other big favorites we can trust with our survivor pool lives. There are arguments to be made that this is the best team in the league taking on the worst team in the league, with home-field advantage. There is no reason to save the Bills, as there won’t be an easier matchup than this. Josh Allen will improve to 4-0 with an easy win over the Saints. 

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) Over New York Giants

Justin Herbert will finish this season as one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he is taking on a rookie Jaxson Dart, making his first career start. The Chargers are the better team on both sides of the ball and aren’t far behind the Bills in terms of a confident survivor pool pick this week. The Giants are nothing impressive on either side of the ball, and Los Angeles is an excellent pick this week. 

Detroit Lions (-8.5) Over Cleveland Browns

The Detroit Lions offense will not be contained, and they are another great option this week against the Browns. Cleveland is flat with Joe Flacco in the pocket, and they will almost certainly need at least 25 points to win this game. I don’t expect that very often, and Detroit is a solid choice if you are looking to save the Bills for another week. 

Denver Broncos (-7.5) Over Cincinnati Bengals 

The Broncos have a few easy games against the Jets and Giants coming up in October, so I would recommend saving them with a few other viable options this week. Cincinnati has been able to overcome its sloppy defensive play thanks to heroics from Joe Burrow, but that is no longer the case. Jake Browning will struggle against an improving Denver defense, but we will look elsewhere for our Week 4 selection. 

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) Over New York Jets

This one will go under the radar for most people, but it is a great option with the future in mind. If you are in a massive survivor pool where winning all 18 weeks is the only option for a cash prize, the Dolphins are the way to go this week. Miami’s offense still has a bit of life left, while there is nothing promising brewing in New York. The Jets' defense is a shadow of its former self, and its quarterback situation is abysmal. Miami played well against Buffalo, has extra rest, and this is all but a must-win game for their slim playoff hopes. This is the contrarian pick of the week, and gives you the chance to leave yourself with an easier path for the rest of the season. 

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) Over Dallas Cowboys

A homecoming for Micah Parsons will be the primary headline on Sunday Night Football, and you can feel confident backing the Packers as your survivor pool pick. Green Bay will be angry with their Week 3 defeat and will bring extra intensity into this matchup. The Dallas offense is capable of playing spoiler, but will likely be without CeeDee Lamb, too. However, I don’t like taking survivor pool teams coming fresh off their first loss of the season. They are still a relatively confident pick, but there is always the slight chance the Packers can’t bounce back mentally. 

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) Over Indianapolis Colts

Fading the undefeated Colts is far from ideal, but the Rams aren’t a terrible selection this week. Los Angeles has a unique combination of experienced veterans on offense, with a young defense ready to make plays. The Colts' defense hasn’t been truly tested yet this season, thanks to stellar offensive play, and the Rams will be extra motivated after their Week 3 defeat. 

Chicago Bears (+1.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

Chicago’s new head coach, Ben Johnson, is settling in. He earned his first career victory with Caleb Williams against the Cowboys and is a promising option this week if you are looking for a contrarian selection. The Raiders got crushed on offense, defense, and special teams last week, and had a long flight back home to Las Vegas. Chicago has all the tools needed to make a mid-season push, and are a decent pick for this week. 

New England Patriots (-5.5) Over Carolina Panthers

This game will be closer than this spread suggests, and I expect New England to be a popular choice this week in survivor pools. They don’t have many other easy games on their schedule, and this is one where we can root for a survivor upset. Carolina is too unpredictable to fade after their 30-0 victory. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia keeps finding ways to win games, and isn’t a terrible pick this week against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers face their first real test of the season, and I expect the Eagles to pick up where they left off in the second half of Week 3. Tampa’s 5-1 record in their last 6 meetings dropped the Eagles down the list, but they still aren’t a bad pick if you find yourself in a jam this week. 

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy’s return to the lineup gives the 49ers the nod, but we want to wait one week to see how his mobility is before taking San Francisco. The 49ers' defensive injuries have capped their potential, and Jacksonville might even have the edge on that side of the ball. The 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league this year and will need to be called upon later this season.

Houston Texans (-7.5) Over Tennessee Titans

While I still expect the Texans to win, this one is far down the list for a reason. Houston has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and that reason alone makes them unplayable this week. CJ Stroud has a promising future ahead of him, but he can’t make accurate throws from his back. 

Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) Over Washington Commanders

The Commanders were able to beat the Raiders without Jayden Daniels, but a strong Falcons defense is a different story. Atlanta played better against the Panthers than the 30-0 scoreline suggests, and could upset Washington if the Commanders can’t field a strong offense due to injuries. Unless the injury situation becomes clearer for Washington, this is a hard pass in terms of survivor pool picks. 

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) Over Arizona Cardinals

This Thursday night affair features two teams that have beaten up on bad teams and lost to good ones. Seattle gets the nod thanks to a stronger defense, but this one is better left alone. 

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) Over Pittsburgh Steelers

International games bring more variables into any NFL contest, and this is one we won’t touch with a ten-foot pole. Two inconsistent defenses that are both capable of stealing games are not something you want to tail or fade with your survivor pool life on the line. 

Official Pick of the Week: Buffalo Bills Over New Orleans Saints

Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Miami Dolphins Over New York Jets

Teams Used: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks

Status: Alive

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