NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 7: Advice and Predictions
The NFL season has officially reached the 33% mark, and there are fewer than 20% of survivor pool entries still alive. While surviving this far is impressive, the job is far from over. There were a few major upsets last week that claimed entrants’ lives, with the Eagles (-7), Commanders (-5), and Bills (-4.5) all losing outright. We correctly faded the Eagles, as they were 7th on our confidence ratings, with the Bills and Commanders both further down the list. Our official pick was the Green Bay Packers over the Cincinnati Bengals, which was a sweat-free victory. We also correctly called that the Patriots would beat the Saints for our upset pick, wrapping up a very successful survivor pool week. Here are your Week 7 survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders
Divisional games can be risky matchups in a survivor pool, but I have complete confidence the Kansas City Chiefs will take care of business against the Raiders. They have been playing dominant football on both sides of the ball, and their last five victories have come by double digits, dating back to last season. Kansas City knows how to beat up on bad teams, and the Raiders certainly fit into that category. Geno Smith and their offense may have snapped a four-game losing streak against the Titans, but that was with only 226 yards of total offense. Don’t let that victory fool you; the Raiders are still complete garbage. We will be pulling the trigger on the reigning AFC champions this week for our official survivor pool pick. The Chiefs' other home games this season are against the Commanders, Colts, Texans, Chargers, and Broncos, none of which will be as straightforward as this. It will be a popular pick this week, but they are still the way to go in Week 7.
Chicago Bears (-5.5) Over New Orleans Saints
The Bears are surging right now with three straight wins, and are a great pick in Week 7. New Orleans is dreadful on both sides of the ball and has yet to win on the road. Chicago is coming off a nice win over the Commanders, as Caleb Williams and this Ben Johnson offense have finally started to click. A reasonable spread will deter some from taking the Bears this week, but don’t let that be you. If you have already used the Chiefs this season, or you want to fade the most popular pick of the week, the Bears are a fantastic second choice.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) Over Cincinnati Bengals
Taking the road team in a divisional matchup is always frightening, but these two teams are too far apart for the venue or motivation to matter. Pittsburgh’s defense is starting to come to life after a slow start, and they finally have an offensive unit to play complementary football with. Joe Flacco is a band-aid over a bullet hole for the Bengals, who are a disaster on both sides of the ball. The Steelers know how to grind out victories against subpar offenses, and the Bengals are one of those teams. This matchup has a few red flags in terms of survivor pool picks, but I am willing to ignore them for a matchup this lopsided.
New England Patriots (-7) Over Tennessee Titans
The Titans just fired their head coach, and that can often lead to short-term gains, as role players are fighting for their playing time under a new regime. However, what Drake Maye has done on the field this season makes the Patriots a confident pick this week. His quarterback rating and EPA are both inside the top 5 this season, and the Patriots have a solid defense on the other side of the ball. However, New England still has several winnable matchups on their easy schedule, so I would recommend saving them for another week if possible.
Carolina Panthers (-1.5) Over New York Jets
If you want to get crazy this week, burning the Panthers in this matchup is a great idea. The winless New York Jets are coming off a long trip home from London, and are an automatic fade until they show us something positive on offense. Justin Fields recorded just 45 passing yards in their Week 6 defeat, while the Panthers' offense has come to life in recent weeks. This will be the contrarian pick of the week, as it will likely be overlooked by most survivor pool players.
Denver Broncos (-7) Over New York Giants
Denver didn’t look impressive on offense against the Jets last week, but their strong defensive play will allow it to beat New York. It is too early to start giving respect to the Giants, as teams will figure out how to slow down Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart. Sean Payton is just the man to do it, and it won’t take much from Bo Nix to get the Broncos over the line.
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) Over San Francisco 49ers
Taking underdogs in your survivor pool is rarely a good idea, but the Falcons are a surprisingly confident pick this week. San Francisco’s injuries have been piling up, and they still aren’t healthy coming into this matchup. Meanwhile, the Falcons' run game has been unstoppable, and this is exactly the type of matchup that will be won on the ground. There are better choices this week, and the Falcons do have easy games late in the season, but you have to strike while the iron is hot in survivor pools.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) Over Arizona Cardinals
The Packers have been able to beat up on bad teams this season, and one blip against the Browns dramatically shifted the public’s opinion on this franchise. Green Bay still has elite talent on both sides of the ball and is a worthy favorite against the Cardinals. Arizona hasn’t been as bad as its 2-4 record suggests, as they actually have a positive point differential. Green Bay is a solid choice this week if you didn’t use them last week against the Bengals.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) Over Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is playing in their home away from home in Europe, but that doesn’t mean they can be trusted with our survivor pool life. Los Angeles has the better quarterback with a young and hungry defense on the other side of the ball. The Jaguars needed a miracle to win against the Chiefs in Week 5, before falling flat on their face against the Seahawks. This is a great pick that will fly under the radar in Week 7.
Washington Commanders (-1.5) Over Dallas Cowboys
Don’t let this short line fool you; this is Washington’s game to lose. The Commanders have alternated wins and losses so far this season, and this feels like a must-win in Dallas with the Chiefs and Lions on the horizon. Jayden Daniels has the ‘it factor’ for the Commanders, and I expect them to pull out a victory. Washington has a few layups on their schedule down the road, so unless you are really in a jam, there are better options further up the list.
Cleveland Browns (-3) Over Miami Dolphins
I guess we will take the Browns? It is hard to have much faith in either of these teams, but Cleveland does have the stronger defense in this matchup. Dillon Gabriel will have his reins loosened a bit against a mediocre Miami defense. There won’t be a better opportunity to use the Browns this season, making them a surprisingly reasonable choice this week.
Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) Over Los Angeles Chargers
How can you fade Daniel Jones and the Colts right now? The Chargers got back on track last week, but they are coming up against a freight train when they host the Colts. Indianapolis has been dominant on both sides of the ball, both on the ground and through the air. Herbert’s poise in the pocket can allow him to pull off miracles, but this will not be one of those times.
Houston Texans (+3.5) Over Seattle Seahawks
This Monday night affair is best left alone. Houston is coming off two blowout wins against terrible teams before their bye week, and it is hard to know what we will see from them in this one. They get the nod, but it is better to look elsewhere in Week 7.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) Over Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia has lost two straight, but the lean goes to them in this matchup. Minnesota is coming off a bye while Philadelphia hasn’t played since last Thursday, meaning there won’t be much of a rest advantage for either side. The Eagles' gritty style of offense is a good matchup against the Vikings' style of defense, but we still can’t have much faith in them snapping their skid.
Detroit Lions (-5.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fading Baker Mayfield with your survivor pool life at risk? No, thank you. It doesn’t matter who Mayfield has been throwing the ball to on offense; he just keeps finding ways to win football games. The slight lean goes to Detroit’s well-rounded offense at home, but do not touch this game. A little Mayfield magic could allow Tampa Bay to pull off the upset.
Official Pick of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs Over Las Vegas Raiders
Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Carolina Panthers Over New York Jets
Teams Used: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers
Status: Alive
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