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2025 North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/21/2025

North Carolina Tar Heels basketball predictions Seth Trimble

The North Carolina Tar Heels finished the regular season with a 20-12 overall record and a 13-7 conference record which was good for a fifth-place finish in the ACC. They went just 1-7 against AP Top 25 teams during the regular season and finished with an 8-9 record in games away from home. In the ACC tournament, they won the first two rounds against Notre Dame and Wake Forest before being eliminated by Duke in the semifinals. The Tar Heels went 0-3 with a -33-point differential against Duke last season. However, their ACC Tournament performance was just enough for North Carolina to sneak into the Big Dance. They toppled San Diego State in their First Four matchup before being eliminated at the hands of 6-Seed Ole Miss in the first round, ending their season.

This was not the dominant Tar Heels squad we are used to. They did rank second in the conference in scoring as they averaged 80.7 PPG while averaging 35.6% from deep, but they were not dominant on the boards, and they could get careless with the ball at times. The North Carolina defense wasn’t great as they allowed 74.7 PPG which ranked 14th in the conference while shooting nearly 34% from beyond the arc. While the defense definitely struggled, the Tar Heels still ranked third in the conference with +6.5% FG%. RJ Davis led the team with 17.2 PPG while shooting 87.3% from the charity stripe. Ian Jackson and Seth Trimble were nice compliments to Davis as Jackson shot nearly 40% from three and averaged 11.9 PPG while Trimble averaged 11.6 PPG and was second on the team in both FT% and RPG. Elliot Cadeau led the team with 6.2 APG while Ven-Allen Lubin led the way with 5.5 RPG, Lubin also led the team with a 68.4% FG%.

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Key Additions/Losses

Davis has graduated while Jackson transferred to St. John’s, Cadeau transferred to Michigan, and Lubin transferred to rival North Carolina State. Drake Powell, who averaged 7.4 PPG and 3.4 RPG, is now with the Brooklyn Nets. Jae’Lyn Withers is in the transfer portal after averaging 6.5 PPG and shooting 44.3% from beyond the arc in 17.5 MPG. Jalen Washington also transferred to Vanderbilt after averaging 5.7 PPG in 15.9 MPG.

As for the additions, North Carolina signed five-star power forward Caleb Wilson who was the eighth ranked prospect in the nation. They rounded out their recrutinig class with the signings of three, four-star, guards in Derek Dixon, Isaiah Denis, and Luka Bogavac. This high school recruiting class ranked seventh in the nation. As for the transfer portal, they signed forward Jarin Stevenson from Alabama who averaged 5.4 PPG in limited action for the Crimson Tide, center Henri Veesaar from Arizona who averaged 9.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG for the Wildcats, guard Jonathan Powell from West Virginia who averaged 8.3 PPG and 3.1 RPG for the Mountaineers, guard Kyan Evans from Colorado State who averaged 10.6 PPG while shooting 47.1% last year for the Rams, and guard Jaydon Young from Virginia Tech who averaged 8.1 PPG last season for the Hokies.

X-Factors

Ranked Opponents- After going 1-7 against Top 25 teams last year, the Tar Heels once again have a loaded schedule. Despite the weakened state of the ACC, the Tar Heels are still set to face six ranked teams this season. The good news is they only have two of those as true road games as they have road trips planned to Lexington to take on #9 Kentucky and to Raleigh to take on #6 Duke. If North Carolina can improve to just .500 against ranked teams, then we could see this squad catapult themselves to a better seed for this year’s March Madness.

Notable Games

Home - #19 Kansas, #6 Duke, #11 Louisville

Away/Neutral - #22 Michigan State, @ #9 Kentucky, @ #6 Duke, @ NC State

Key Odds/Rankings:

NCAA Champion: +4000

Conference Winner: +850

AP Top 25- 25th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 23rd

2025 North Carolina Ter Heels Predictions

North Carolina is set to start the season as the 25th ranked team in the country. Andy Katz favors them slightly better at 23rd, but regardless the defense is going to have to step it up this year if they wish to capture a better seed in March as well as end their current losing streak to Duke. It will be interesting to see just how well Wilson can adapt at the next level because if he is able to produce as expected, North Carolina may have one of the best front courts in the nation with him and Veesaar. At +850 there is some value especially if the backcourt can replenish itself with some breakout stars, but Duke still seems to be two steps ahead of their rivals. North Carolina doesn’t appear to have what it takes to contend for a national championship this season, but there is a lot to like in the recruiting class. Now they just have to figure out how to retain their best players year after year.

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