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2025-26 Portland Trail Blazers Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/10/2025

Portland Trail Blazers predictions Shaedon Sharpe

He’s coming home. After an unsuccessful two-year stint in Milwaukee, Damian Lillard is back where he belongs in Portland. While a deep playoff run is unlikely for the Trail Blazers, the team has a unique combination of youth and experience on its roster. Lillard coming back to Portland will keep butts in seats this season, and the Trail Blazers will be hoping they can sprinkle in the occasional win on the court, too. Can the Trail Blazers upset the odds with a playoff berth, or will it be a fifth straight season without playoff basketball in the Northwest?

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Portland Trail Blazers Offseason Recap

The highlight of the Trail Blazers' offseason was undoubtedly Damian Lillard re-signing with the franchise. Lillard leaving Portland in search of a ring tore at the heartstrings of the Trail Blazers fanbase, but things couldn’t have gone worse. The Bucks didn’t come close to a championship, and Lillard tore his Achilles in his final game with Milwaukee. While he is unlikely to be suiting up this season, Lillard’s role in the locker room will have a massive impact on the trajectory of this franchise.

The Trail Blazers made one of the most puzzling acquisitions this offseason. They traded away promising prospect Anfernee Simons to the Celtics for Jrue Holiday. Holiday is one of the most undervalued players in the league, as he was instrumental to both the Bucks and the Celtics' championship runs. His ability to clamp down on the opponent’s primary ball handler is a valuable tool that often gets overlooked. There is no doubt that Holiday will help the Trail Blazers win, but this isn’t a team that will be competing for the championship this season. Holiday isn’t getting any younger at 35 years old, but the Trail Blazers got an offer they couldn’t refuse for the perennial DPOY candidate. Their ability to alleviate the cash-strapped Celtics of his contract likely had a role to play, and the Trail Blazers may have plans to flip Holiday to a contender at the deadline. 

Losing Deandre Ayton will limit their paint efficiency, but the Trail Blazers drafted an immediate fan favorite in Yang Hansen 16th overall. Hansen went viral for his “Eat, Sleep, and PlayStation” interview and will be expected to produce in his rookie season for Portland. The 19-year-old has no shortage of potential, and once he bulks up, he will be a force in the paint. 

Portland Trail Blazers Season Expectations

There are minimal expectations in Portland this season. A promising crop of young talents will continue to develop, but tangible results will be much harder to come by. The departed Simons was the Trail Blazers' leading scorer with 19.3 PPG last season, and Portland lacks a truly lethal scorer on their roster. 

Shaedon Sharpe will be the number one option this season, as the 21-year-old scored 18.5 PPG last season while shooting 45.2% from the floor. He is primed to break out this season with no one to steal his shots, and I expect him to score 23+ PPG with an increase in volume. His ability to take quality shots on the inside while being able to rain threes from deep makes him tough to slow down. Sharpe’s development for the Trail Blazers was one of the reasons Portland felt good enough to trade Simons to the Celtics. With him out of the picture and Jrue Holiday known for his defensive work, Sharpe will have no shortage of opportunities to post big stat lines this season. 

Portland Trail Blazers Schedule Breakdown

It doesn’t get much harder than the Trail Blazers' first four games. Home games against the Timberwolves and Warriors, leading into a back-to-back set in Los Angeles against the Clippers and Lakers, will probably be a 0-4 start for Portland. A three-game homestand against the Nuggets, Lakers, and Thunder follows a quick trip to Utah, as this team's season could be effectively over before it even gets going. Their longest road trip comes in March when they head East for a five-game stint, but the Trail Blazers will be flying all over the country all year long. They travel the second-most miles this season, and considering the Grizzlies and Magic are going to Europe, that says a lot about their schedule difficulty. 

Portland Trail Blazers Odds

Portland has a win total of 34.5 this season and is considered a long shot to make the playoffs. They have +400 odds to make and -670 odds to miss, with +200 odds to qualify for the play-in tournament. Their title odds aren’t even worth discussing, as there is virtually no chance the Trail Blazers will be able to navigate an incredibly competitive Western Conference even if they miraculously sneak into the playoffs. The volatility of the NBA Cup can give Portland some hope, but a group with the Nuggets, Rockets, Warriors, and Spurs will be tough to come out on top of at +1700. 

2025-26 Portland Trail Blazers Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Portland Trail Blazers will be very bad this season. End of story. I will rarely recommend a -670 future, but if you wanted to parlay the Trail Blazers to miss the playoffs with any other prop your heart desires, feel free. Portland will struggle out of the gate and will not be able to overcome a 1-7 start to the season. I expect them to finish under their win total with a final record of 29-53 this year. They traded away their leading scorer and burned their free agency money on Lillard, who will almost certainly sit out the entire season. While their win total under is a great pick, and I am generally pessimistic about this team, there is one bright spot we can attack. 

Shaedon Sharpe has +2500 odds to win the Most Improved Player award this year, and this is a prop that is poised to cash. Sharpe was a very efficient shooter last season compared to other shooting guards, and will see a significant volume increase this year. This award is not related to team success, and whichever middling star sees their PPG skyrocket is usually a frontrunner. Sharpe will have a serious volume increase alongside the defensive-minded Holiday in the backcourt. His strong shooting, coupled with a volume increase, is the perfect recipe to win this award. 

Pick: Portland Trail Blazers to Miss the Playoffs -670 (Parlay Piece only)

Pick: Portland Trail Blazers Under 34.5 Wins -110

Top Pick: Shaedon Sharpe to win Most Improved Player +2500

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