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2025 Wisconsin Badgers Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/25/2025

Wisconsin Badgers basketball predictions John Blackwell

The Wisconsin Badgers finished the 2024/25 regular season with a 23-8 record and a 13-7 conference record which was good enough for a fourth-place finish in the Big 10. They started the season winning their first eight games, though their rhythm was disrupted when they lost three straight to Michigan, Marquette, and Illinois. They responded to that losing skid with a seven-game winning streak, highlighted by a big road win against then #7 Purdue. The Badgers went 3-3 against Top 25 ranked opponent’s last season. When it came to the Big 10 Tournament, Wisconsin cruised through the first three rounds as they knocked off Northwestern, UCLA, and #7 Michigan State. Unfortunately, their efforts fell just short of the Big 10 crown as they lost to the Wolverines by six points in the conference championship game. When it came time for March Madness, the Badgers secured a 3-Seed and faced 14-Seed Montana who they beat by 19 points in the first round. Unfortunately for the Badgers, their season would end in the second round after they were upset by the 6-Seed BYU Cougars.

The Badgers had one of the best scoring teams in the country as they averaged over 80 PPG and were the only team in the Big 10 to shoot over 80% from the free throw line (82.6%). They were efficient from beyond the arc and while their depth wasn’t the best, John Tonje was a star. The Badgers ranked third in the conference with a +9.2-point differential. Tonje led the team with 19.6 PPG, finished shooting over 90% from the charity stripe, while also shooting 38.8% from beyond the arc. He was also one of four Badgers players who averaged over five RPG. John Blackwell finished second on the team with 15.8 PPG while also averaging 5.1 RPG. Nolan Winter led the team with 5.8 RPG, Max Klesmit led the Badgers with 2.7 APG, and Steve Crowl was the best three-point weapon as he averaged over 41% from deep.

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Key Additions/Losses

Tonje has moved on to the NBA while Crowl, Klesmit, McGee, and Carter Gilmore all graduated. On top of that, depth pieces Daniel Freitag, Camren Hunter, Markus Ilver, Chris Hodges, Xavier Amos, and Carter Gilmore have all transferred to new schools over the course of the offseason. All these moves left the Badgers with just three players who averaged more than five MPG last season as Blackwell and Winter headline the returning group.

Wisconsin began the rebuilding process with a solid high school recruiting class. They signed three four-star players, Zach Kinziger, Hayden Jones, and Aleksas Bieliauskas are joined by three-star Will Garlock to round out the recruiting class. As for the transfer portal, Wisconsin added Elijah Gray (9.0 PPG at Temple), Braeden Carrington (7.4 PPG/4.8 RPG at Tulsa), Nick Boyd (13.4 PPG at San Diego State), Austin Rapp (13.8 PPG at Portland), and Andrew Rohde (9.3 PPG/41.3% 3P% at Virginia).

X-Factors

The Depth- Wisconsin has lost a lot of talent from last year’s roster. They have just three returning players who incurred significant playing time. While they did bring in some productive pieces, the incoming players’ production came at lower-level schools and their production against bigger schools remains to be seen. The transfer class nor the recruiting class are anything to go on about leaving the unproven depth as a tremendous X-Factor for the Badgers this season.

Notable Games

Home – Marquette, #1 Purdue, #12 UCLA, #22 Michigan State, Iowa

Away/Neutral - @ #8 BYU, @ #7 Michigan, @ #17 Illinois, @ #1 Purdue

Key Odds/Rankings:

NCAA Champion: +6000

Conference Winner: +2200

AP Top 25- 24th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 24th

2025 Wisconsin Badgers Predictions

With such a deep conference like the Big 10 and the number of losses this Wisconsin team had from a year ago, it is hard to envision them putting together a productive season. Blackwell will be amongst the nation’s most impactful players, but the squad around him will have to mesh and prove they can play their game at the upper tier of college basketball. Wisconsin starts the season with seven ranked teams on their schedule and while only one of those comes in nonconference play, the depth of the conference is highlighted. The Badgers carry +2200 odds to win the Big 10 and while that may be enticing for a team who came up just a few points shy of claiming the title last season, this is not the same Wisconsin team and one should proceed with caution. Expect a big regression from the Badgers this season and don’t be surprised to see them upended early on in the year with so many new players coming to town. Stay away from any futures relating to the Badgers until they are able to prove that they have replenished all the talent lost from last year’s team.

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