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Betting the Super Bowl Coin Toss: Historical Trends for This Sucker Bet

by Spencer Toth - 1/30/2026

Betting the Super Bowl coin toss

At any Super Bowl party, there is always the know-it-all who thinks they will be able to predict the first touchdown scorer, rushing yards leader, and, of course, the Super Bowl winner. While casual fans may dive into trivial betting markets like those, the real Super Bowl fanatics know where the money is at. The coin toss. Who needs -110 or -115 props when you can secure favorable, potentially even +100 odds on the coin toss? This 50/50 event will start the Super Bowl off with a bang. 

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The question is simple: Heads or Tails? Rowdy college kids love to hop on the ‘Tails Never Fails’ bandwagon, and they have found success as of late, as Tails has pulled ahead 31-28 in the overall standings. Meanwhile, Heads has been heating up, going 3-2 in the last five, and distinguished Super Bowl veterans have cashed in on Heads while avoiding the Tails Never Fails crowd. It has been a refreshing decade for the coin toss, as the two sides are split 3-3 since 2020 after years of one-sided affairs. In the early 2000s, Tails went on a hot streak, winning eight out of nine flips from 1998 to 2006. However, Heads was not to be outdone, as it replied with five straight wins of its own between 2009 and 2013. One side will reach four wins for the first time in the 2020s, leaving an uphill battle for the loser. Tails does have a small lead historically, but Heads has shown that it is more than capable of stringing wins together in a hurry.  

At the 2026 Super Bowl, we have a fresh matchup between the Patriots and Seahawks, adding another twist to the age-old pregame debate. New England’s Super Bowl dynasty came right in the middle of the legendary Tails streak of the 2010s, and they will be hoping that an early Tails call will allow them to renew their glory days. For the Seahawks, they have been historically electric when it comes to calling coin tosses, going a perfect 3-0 on coin tosses, all of which were Tails. Both of these teams have a long history with that side of the coin, and one of their streaks will likely be broken in the 2026 Super Bowl. 

Heading into this matchup, I think it is clear that both sides are likely going to be calling Tails at SoFi Stadium. The Seahawks have won with Tails in all three previous Super Bowls, while the Patriots have a long history of success with the call. There is always the off-chance that Seattle mixes it up after they won the coin toss, but lost the game with Tails in 2015 against the Patriots, but I don’t expect that to be the case. 

Remember, it doesn’t matter who calls or wins the coin toss, as most sportsbooks only let you bet on the coin toss outcome. The argument for Heads is that if the recent trend persists, Heads is due. Dating back to 2021, the Super Bowl coin toss has alternated Heads and Tails each year, with the Chiefs winning the toss last year with Tails. Additionally, the only other Super Bowl to be played at SoFi Stadium was in 2021, where Heads was flipped. Heads appears to have home-field advantage in this matchup, which could be the difference-maker in this otherwise 50/50 event. 

For Tails, its historic dominance combined with deep-rooted history for not one, but both of these franchises makes it the obvious pick this year. I have been trying to come up with reasons for Heads to stay in this race, but I just can’t justify anything other than a Tails selection at the 2026 Super Bowl. All three Seahawks Super Bowl appearances have seen Tails come up (12.5% chance of that happening naturally, which is unlikely to be a coincidence). The Patriots have a long history with this side of the coin and success in the Super Bowl. What more do you need to hear? We will be degrading ourselves by joining the Tails Never Fails hooligans this year, but who knows, maybe it is better this way. We are a scorching 3-1 on the coin toss so far, after our perfect 3-0 streak was snapped by a brutal Heads call last year. I have learned my lesson, and we will be jumping ship for Super Bowl LX. When in doubt, just remember that Tails Never Fails. End of story. 

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