Betting the Super Bowl Over and Under 2026 with Expert Analysis and Handicapping

by Spencer Toth - 1/28/2026

Betting the Super Bowl over under Rhamondre Stevenson New England Patriots

If you think this year’s Super Bowl is too close to call, focusing on the total is a great betting strategy to deploy. The over/under is a term that every NFL bettor is familiar with, and the premise remains the same in the Super Bowl. The 45.5 point total is the lowest in the Super Bowl since 2016, and for good reason. These are two excellent defenses squaring off, and points are expected to be at a premium in the biggest game of the season. The over has cashed in three straight Super Bowls, with an average of 61.3 PPG scored in that span. It hasn’t always been a dominant showing by the over, as the under cashed in four consecutive years before this recent streak, with only 37.5 PPG scored in that span. Will this year’s Seahawks vs Patriots matchup continue the recent over streak, or will the script be flipped as the defenses flex their muscles in Santa Clara? Let’s jump into your over/under breakdown for the 2026 Super Bowl.

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When the Seahawks have the ball…

Sam Darnold has been labeled as a choker after his late-season collapse with the Vikings last year. Even with the regular-season finale and Wild Card round defeats included, Darnold is 30-7 in his 37 starts since the start of last year. That consists of a 41-point outburst against the 49ers in the Divisional round, and a poised 31-point showing against the Rams in the NFC Championship. It appears as though Darnold has shaken off his reputation, but it will be far from smooth sailing for the Seahawks offense in the Super Bowl. Los Angeles finished with the 10th-ranked defense in the regular season, although that was carried by a red-hot start to the season. The 49ers also had a hot start, but finished 15th in the league with several injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Seattle took care of business, and they can only beat whoever is standing in front of them, but there is no denying that this is the toughest defensive matchup Darnold and the Seahawks have seen in several weeks.

New England has the second-best defense in the league in terms of PPG, with the 4th best run defense and the 8th best pass defense. On the ground, Seattle will be without Zach Charbonnet, and they struggled to get their run game going last week without him. Darnold bailed them out in the passing game, but he will find it much harder to stay ahead of the sticks against New England in the Super Bowl. The Patriots have allowed just 26 points across all three playoff games this season, and Seattle will need to score at least that many in this game alone if the over is going to cash.

Most dominant defenses thrive thanks to a stellar pass rush that speeds up the quarterback. A strong defensive line that can stop the run and get to the quarterback is tough to beat, but that is not how the Patriots find defensive success. In the regular season, New England had just 35 sacks, with only six teams posting a lower total. Their 12 sacks in the playoffs lead the way, but it would still be safe to say that it is the secondary and linebackers that have led the Patriots. Christian Gonzalez gets plenty of credit, and rightfully so, but the rest of the Patriots cannot be overlooked. Carlton Davis II is also capable of winning in single coverage, and two great corners is a luxury few teams have to work with. This allows the Patriots to load up the tackle box, which gives them the flexibility to stop the pass or the run on any given down.

The Seahawks team total is sitting at 25.5 points, and that is far too high for this specific matchup. The Patriots are the best defense the Seahawks have faced this season, and I am still not fully sold that we can trust Darnold in a big game. Seattle has been leading for 113:04 of the 120:00 playoff minutes this season, and we don’t know how Darnold will react to adversity. If the Seahawks don’t get off to another hot start, it could be a long day in the backfield for Darnold and company.

When the Patriots have the ball…

New England has the second-best defense in terms of PPG this season, trailing only the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have allowed 7.3 PPG in their last six games against teams that were not the Los Angeles Rams. Their defense has been truly dominant, generating pressure, controlling the middle of the field, and getting crucial red zone stops. However, while they have been able to shut down middling offenses, they struggled against one MVP candidate in Matthew Stafford (28.3 PPG allowed in three meetings) and could struggle against the other MVP candidate in Drake Maye.

Maye is only in his second season in the league, and didn’t even start the first five games of his rookie year. While his inexperience could be a concern, Maye has looked truly dominant in the pocket. His 77.1 QBR was far and away the best in the league this season, as was his 72% completion percentage. Maye has been able to use a strong offensive line to buy time, but he also isn’t afraid to tuck the ball and pick up first downs with his legs. We saw him rush for 66 yards against the Chargers and 65 yards against the Broncos in the playoffs, and the Seahawks will need to stay honest with spies if they hope to slow down Maye.

On the ground, TreyVon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson continue to thrive, but ball security has been an issue. Maye has had fumbling issues in the playoffs, as have the New England running backs. Keeping drives alive by protecting the football will be a point of emphasis for this New England offense, as Seattle is one of the best at punching out footballs in the open field.

While I do think the 20.5 point team total is a fair line for the Patriots, I still expect them to struggle to reach that total. Seattle had four players log at least 7 sacks in the regular season, with an astonishing 11 players recording more than one. Their entire team will run at the quarterback if that’s what Mike Macdonald dials up, and he does a great job at disguising those blitzes. New England has a strong offensive line to protect Maye, but he has found the most success when he mixes in running the football, too. Seattle does a good job at tracking the quarterback and will trust their secondary in single coverage to prevent Maye from climbing the pocket. New England has leaned on their defense to find success, and I expect them to play it safe on offense whenever possible. Mike Vrabel is a conservative coach on offense, as he will look to bleed this clock whenever possible. The 20.5 team total is a fair number, but I still expect New England to stay under.

Should you take Over or Under in the 2026 Super Bowl?

Normally, I attack this prop by thinking that if Team A wins, it will go over, and if Team B wins, it will stay under. That has been successful in back-to-back years, but we will be going all-in on the under this year, regardless of the winner.

These are the two best defenses in the league facing off. End of story. The narrative around Darnold and Maye, and two strong offenses, is a lot more fun to talk about and root for, but the reality is that this will be a very defensive matchup. We have seen both of these teams frequently hold their opponents to single-digit scoring, and just because this is the Super Bowl, doesn’t change their defensive dominance. A 45.5 point total might be the lowest Super Bowl total since 2016, but the league-wide average was still only 46.38 PPG in the regular season. It is hard to imagine either side putting up 25+ points in this one, making the under not only the best total bet to make, but it just might be the outright best bet for the 2026 Super Bowl.

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Start:	January 28, 2026 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
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Betting the Super Bowl Over and Under 2026 with Expert Analysis and Handicapping

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