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2026 Dallas Mavericks Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win NBA Championship

by Spencer Toth - 9/29/2026

Dallas Mavericks predictions Kyrie Irving

The Dallas Mavericks are deep in their rebuild around Rookie of the Year winner Cooper Flagg and had an active offseason as they looked to tinker with how to best develop his talent. Their 26-56 record from last season was their worst since 2018, the year before they drafted Luka Doncic, and the Mavericks will be hoping to trend in the right direction heading into the new year. Will a healthy Kyrie Irving make an impact? Will Flagg be able to lead this team to the playoffs? Or will Dallas be fighting to avoid the relegation zone as the season winds down? Let’s dive in. 

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Dallas Mavericks Offseason Recap

The Dallas Mavericks had a busy offseason as they look to jump back into relevancy after their worst season in a decade. Building around Cooper Flagg is the obvious priority for the Mavericks, and they started by bringing in Masai Ujiri to lead basketball operations. Ujiri is one of the most respected minds in the sport, as he helped develop numerous All-Stars with the Toronto Raptors, and is the perfect man to have his finger on the pulse of a franchise. One of the first orders of business was replacing Jason Kidd, and Ujiri and company elected to take a shot with Dusty May. May led the Michigan Wolverines to a championship in the NCAA this year, but has no NBA coaching experience. This is the type of aggressive move that someone like Ujiri is known for, and only time will tell if it pays off. 

On the court, the Mavericks biggest addition is Zaccharie Risacher from the Atlanta Hawks. The 2024 first overall pick never really gelled in Atlanta during the first two years of his career, but will now get a chance to shine with a larger role in Dallas. His best attributes are on display on the defensive end of the floor, and if he can even become an average offensive contributor, he may still be able to live up to his pre-draft expectations. It feels like Risacher has still yet to get his career going, and considering the Mavericks didn’t have to give up much to acquire him, this is the perfect high upside signing to make with the franchise rebuilding. 

The Mavericks also added Santi Aldama for some frontcourt depth, while losing Klay Thompson and Khris Middleton. Neither Thompson nor Middleton were a part of the long term goals for the Mavericks, and offloading their expensive contracts cleared up space for new signings. 

In the draft, the Mavericks took Morez Johnson Jr. with the ninth overall selection, who is expected to make an instant impact. Johnson Jr. could go on to be the best player from this draft, as he uses every inch of his 7’3” wingspan to terrorize opponents on the defensive end. He is a high percentage finisher at the rim on offense, and while his deep ball and jump shot need work, he can still be an excellent contributor in the paint. 

2026 Dallas Mavericks Season Expectations

The expectations for the Mavericks are quite low heading into the new season. The primary targets will be developing Flagg, Risacher, Johnson Jr., and the rest of their young stars, while avoiding the relegation zone at the bottom of the standings. Winning would be a bonus, but this roster is far from being able to compete with the best in the league, and will struggle to stay competitive on a nightly basis. 

One man who is technically not an offseason addition, but hasn’t been on the court in more than a year and a half, is Kyrie Irving. Irving’s offcourt antics have taken over the narrative late in his career, but he is still a very capable contributor when given a long leash. Irving’s ball handling abilities combined with seemingly always improving vision will allow him to be the point of emphasis for this Mavericks offense. Coming off a big injury like his at 34 years old will not be easy, but Irving’s playstyle should allow him to thrive. 

Once you add in consistent role players like P.J. Washington and Dereck Lively, the Mavericks may be able to field a semi-competitive starting five. However, they lack the depth to survive an 82-game season, meaning if a single starter goes down with even a minor ailment, the losses may start to pile up in a hurry. 

2026 Dallas Mavericks Schedule Breakdown

The Dallas Mavericks get thrown right into the fire to start the year with three of their first four on the road at the Rockets, Pacers, and Heat. They then play six of their next seven at home, including their first NBA Cup game against the Rockets. Dallas has the benefit of being located right in the middle of the country, which means they are able to limit long road trips down the East or West Coast. Their longest stretch away from home comes in March, and that is still a very manageable five-game swing out West. Finally, if the Mavericks are threatening to drop into the relegation zone, their final three games against the Trail Blazers, Kings, and Grizzlies could determine their draft lottery odds. 

2026 Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

The Dallas Mavericks have a win total of 30.5 this season, slightly better than their 26 win total last year. Looking at the postseason, Dallas has +220 odds to make the playoffs with -300 odds to miss, and has +140 odds to participate in the play-in tournament. However, even though the oddsmakers are giving the rebuilding Mavericks a non-zero chance of making the playoffs, anything resembling a deep playoff run is incredibly unlikely with +10000 odds to win the West and +20000 odds to win the championship. 

Looking at the NBA Cup, the Mavericks find themselves in a tough group alongside the Nuggets, Rockets, Suns, and Jazz. They have the longest odds to top the group at +800, and while I don’t think they pull off the upset, they should be closer to the odds given to the Suns (+450) and Jazz (+650). 

2026 Dallas Mavericks Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Dallas Mavericks are projected to finish 11th in the West based on the regular season wins, and that feels a little generous for this team. Cooper Flagg played well as a rookie, but as the bar gets raised, it is hard to see him overshoot expectations again. It is difficult to trust Irving to turn back the clock and thrive, while the rest of the Dallas roster is average at best. This team’s primary focus is developing their talent, not winning basketball games, and I expect them to struggle almost every night. 

For the first pick, we will play it safe with Dallas to miss the playoffs at -300 odds. This is certainly a steep price to pay, but for Dallas to finish ahead of teams like the Lakers, Warriors, and Suns over the course of an 82-game season seems like a lot to ask. Even if Dallas squeaks into the play-in tournament at +140 odds, which is already asking a lot, they will almost certainly need to win back-to-back games to qualify. This is the perfect season-long parlay piece with another NBA future, and is the top pick to make with this team. 

For the second bet, we will happily take under 30.5 wins. I wish we could hunt for some plus money with alternative unders, but most sportsbooks only offer alternative overs and not unders. We will still settle for the standard under 30.5, as I expect Dallas to finish slightly worse than they did last year with a 25-57 record. They don’t have the top-end talent to upset the elite teams in the West, and their lack of depth means one injury could send their season off the rails. 

Top Pick: Dallas Mavericks to Miss the Playoffs -300

Pick: Dallas Mavericks Under 30.5 Wins -110

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