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2026 Golden State Warriors Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win NBA Championship

by Spencer Toth - 10/2/2026

Golden State Warriors predictions Stephen Curry

The Golden State Warriors are trying to squeeze out one more championship run before Steph Curry hangs up his shoes, and there is quiet optimism that they still have enough left in the tank to do so. They spent the offseason locking up an aging core, and the trio of Curry, Green, and Butler have already proven they can be clutch in the playoffs. Can the old legs in Golden State keep up with the next generation, or will this be the beginning of the end for Golden State’s golden generation?

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Golden State Warriors Offseason Recap

The Warriors primary goal in the offseason was extending and restructuring their core to keep everyone in Golden State. Steph Curry extended with a two-year deal at a discounted price, while Draymond Green also added another year to his contract. They extended Kristaps Porzingis, De’Anthony Melton, Al Horford, and Gary Payton II to short-term contracts, keeping most of their starting five in Golden State. The only significant departure for the Warriors was Quinten Post, who started half the games he appeared in but only averaged 17.3 minutes on the court each night. His floor spacing will be missed, but with Porzingis allegedly healthy for the new season, he can play the same role Post thrived in. 

The Warriors weren’t without their signings, as the arrival of Georges Niang and 11th overall pick Yaxel Lendeborg will both play a role. Niang missed all of last year due to injury, but he is a career 40% three-point shooter who can make defenses pay if left open. However, the more impactful addition is Lendeborg. The Michigan graduate is a versatile defender who can guard several positions, putting every inch of his 7-foot-4 wingspan to use. There are really no flaws to his game, as he put up a 15/7/3 average with the Wolverines while chipping in with 1.2 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. He was a big reason why the Wolverines won the championship, and has already proven he can elevate his teammates, which can be overlooked in the boxscore. One con to his long-term development is he is already 24 years old, but the short term benefit is that he is ready to play an immediate role with Golden State. 

2026 Golden State Warriors Season Expectations

Gone are the days when Golden State would enter the season as -200 favorites to win the championship. The expectation will always be that this team can go on a deep playoff run as long as Curry is healthy, as he continues to turn back the clock at 38. However, a stacked Western Conference has the Warriors projected to miss the playoffs, something they have done in two of the last three seasons. 

If the Warriors want to seriously contend with their current roster, it starts on the defensive end of the floor. They were the 7th-best defense in the 2024-25 season, but dropped all the way down to 17th in the league last year. Injuries to Curry and Butler can be blamed for that falloff, but the reality is that Golden State wasn’t putting in the necessary effort to thrive on defense. Their offense was also very average with the 18th-best rating, making it no surprise to see the Warriors get eliminated in the play-in tournament. 

Heading into this year, the Warriors kept their key defenders like Curry, Butler, Melton, and Brandon Podziemski, all of whom averaged at least one steal per game last year. The only problem? Butler, Curry, and Melton only played three games together last season, as long-term recurring injuries limited their time on the court. The Warriors don’t have the defensive depth to stay above water if their stars go down, and keeping everyone healthy is the primary concern. Butler is still on the sidelines from his torn ACL last year, and won’t be back until around the halfway point of the year, which means the Warriors will need to rack up enough wins to stay in the playoff race without him. 

Defense is important, the supporting cast needs to step up, but this team’s ceiling will be determined by one thing and one thing only. The play of Steph Curry. Curry’s 26.6 PPG would have had him 9th in the league if he had played enough games, as he is still one of the hardest men to stop from behind the arc. His seemingly endless range forces defenders to stay tight, but his shifty dribbles will also punish them with a drive to the hoop. They went 24-19 with Curry compared to 13-26 without him, and will likely see similar splits this season if he misses any time. 

2026 Golden State Warriors Schedule Breakdown

The Warriors start their season with four of the first five on the road, including a season opener against the Lakers, before heading home for six straight games. Unlike some of the centrally located teams, the Warriors find themselves with several long road trips and extended home stands this year. They have four stretches where they hit the road for five or more consecutive games, but also have three home stands of six or more games. Like most years, the Warriors will be facing off on Christmas Day, this year against the Denver Nuggets in a thrilling game at home. Finally, they close out the year with a nasty pair of games in Oklahoma City, before ending it off against the Jazz. 

2026 Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

The Golden State Warriors head into the year with a win total of 39.5, which puts them right on the fringe of making the playoffs in the West. They have -130 odds to qualify for the postseason with +105 odds to miss, and have +100 odds to participate in the play-in tournament. The odds suggest the Warriors will be good enough to finish in the top-ten, but challenging for a top-six seed may be too much to ask. Looking further, the Warriors have +2500 odds to win the Western Conference, and +6000 odds to win the championship, the 15th-shortest in the league. 

In the NBA Cup, Golden State is in a difficult group alongside the Spurs, Lakers, Trail Blazers, and Kings. San Antonio is the odds-on favorite to win the group at -175, while the Warriors have +700 odds to come out on top. If they do emerge from their group, they have +7500 odds to lift the NBA Cup. 

2026 Golden State Warriors Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Warriors 2022 championship win tricked the public into thinking they are a competitive team after the legendary late-2010’s dynasty. In reality, Curry is still solid, but Butler is injured, Porzingis has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, and Draymond Green is just picking up a paycheck. The Warriors have failed to make the playoffs in two of the last three seasons, including a 37-win campaign last year. This is an average team by all metrics, and that simply won’t cut it in a very competitive Western Conference. 

For the first and only pick on this team, we will take Golden State to miss the playoffs at +105 odds. This price tag is a bit surprising, as it implies the Warriors are more likely to make the playoffs with less than 39.5 wins than they are to miss the playoffs with 40+ victories. Last year, we saw three teams miss the playoffs with 40+ wins, the year before, we saw two teams miss, and the year before that, we saw three. Only the 37-45 Miami Heat in 2025 made the playoffs with fewer than 40 wins in that span, making it obvious we should take the plus money on the Warriors to miss the playoffs rather than the Under 39.5 win prop. 

Top Pick: Golden State Warriors to Miss the Playoffs +105

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