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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 3/11/2026

by Spencer Toth - 3/11/2026

NBA hot and cold ATS and over under Darius Garland LA Clippers

There is one month left in the NBA regular season, and jockeying for playoff seeding is now at the forefront of the contenders' minds. There is still plenty to play for with 15 games to go, as the top ten in each conference all have a legitimate shot at making a deep playoff run. Motivation is a factor at this stage of the season, as some teams are more focused on improving their draft stock than winning basketball games. That must be considered, but massive spreads can keep bad teams profitable right up until game 82. Over the last few weeks, some teams have been able to consistently cover the number, while others have fallen short. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread with the highest and lowest scorers in the NBA. 

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The Hot: 

Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks have launched themselves back into the playoff race, winning seven straight while going 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games. Six of their seven wins have come against teams with sub-.500 records, but they have still been blowing them out and getting covers along the way. Double-digit spreads against the Mavericks, Nets, and twice against the Wizards all resulted in double-digit wins for the Hawks, as this team has started to find its groove. A healthy Hawks side can run a balanced offense with a coherent defense, making them prime candidates for blowouts against bottom feeders. The Hawks took care of business against whoever was in front of them, but they will need to continue that momentum when their schedule gets tougher in the coming weeks. Laying big spreads with Atlanta has been a profitable endeavor, but they have yet to prove they can tussle with the top of the league. 

Miami Heat

Miami has been on a winning streak of its own, winning six consecutive games. They have gone 8-2 straight up and against the spread in their last ten games, including Bam Adebayo’s historic 83-point night against the Washington Wizards. Miami is suddenly a threat in the East thanks to consistent play on both ends of the court, as Erik Spoelstra has changed his identity to a fast-paced, high-octane game plan. Miami will be a team to watch down the stretch, as they are known for late-season pushes when it matters most. Anytime the Heat are in the underdog role, taking a stab with the points is never a bad idea. 

The Cold:
Indiana Pacers

Indiana is ready for next season. Less than 12 months after reaching Game 7 of the NBA Finals, Indiana is at the bottom of the conference with little reason for optimism. They have lost ten in a row and haven’t covered the spread in any of those contests. They have predictably been an underdog in the last nine games, including five games with a point spread of nine or more points. However, it doesn’t seem to matter how low the expectations are for the Pacers; they keep finding ways to fall short. Getting Tyrese Haliburton healthy for next season with a new rookie to play with will be their top priority, so don’t expect a sudden late-season dash up the standings from Indiana. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota has gone 3-7 against the spread in its last ten, the joint second-worst ATS record in that span. However, they have gone 7-3 straight up, as they have found ways to win close games. Edging past the Clippers, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, and Grizzlies all resulted in wins without covering the spread for the Timberwolves, as this team has lacked the killer instinct needed to pull away. They often have enough talent to win in the clutch, but haven’t run up the score high enough to cover double-digit spreads. Their defense has been excellent, also resulting in six straight unders, but their offense hasn’t been playing up to par. Anthony Edwards and company will need to start putting together more convincing victories, or it could be a rare one-and-done for the Timberwolves when the playoffs roll around. 

High Scorers:
Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers have cashed the over in eight of their last ten games, going 6-4 straight up in that span. Kawhi Leonard continues to thrive on offense, while new arrivals Benedict Mathurin and Darius Garland have started to find their groove. Garland and Mathurin are both electric scorers, and the oddsmakers have been slow to catch up to the Clippers' new style of basketball. They haven’t had a closing total of 230+ points since the end of January, yet they keep cashing overs. Los Angeles has been a very defensive, low-scoring team over the last few seasons, but this new-look side can turn games into track meets. Until they start getting 230+ totals, the over will be the way to go anytime the Clippers step onto the court. 

Washington Wizards

The Washington Wizards have gone over the total in seven of their last ten, but it hasn’t been thanks to electric offense from Washington. Instead, their defense has completely fallen apart during their nine-game losing skid, highlighted by the 150 points allowed last night against Miami. The oddsmakers have started to give Washington totals in the 240 range, a number their dreadful defense deserves, but that hasn’t been enough to slow them down. While banking on the Wizards getting stops is not fun, their opponents are due to regress in their shooting percentages from the floor. If Washington finds itself with another sky-high total in the coming weeks, fading this trend and taking the under could be the move. 

Low Scorers:
Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics find themselves in this column for the second straight edition, as their defense continues to surpass expectations. The Celtics have stayed under in eight of their last ten games, as they have gone 7-3 straight up in that span. The return of Jayson Tatum teaming up with Jaylen Brown had the public expecting an offensive resurgence from Boston, but the Celtics are not going to change their winning formula at this stage of the season. They play at the slowest pace in the league, so even a solid night from behind the arc often results in an under. Their closing totals have been under 230 points since January, but it is time to start dropping them even further. The Celtics are 5-1 to the under when the closing line is 211 or lower and are a stunning 23-42 to the total this year. Unless something drastic changes, I don’t know how you can look at anything other than the under with the Celtics. 

Toronto Raptors

Toronto has started to slip down the Eastern Conference standings thanks to poor offensive play. They have stayed under the total in eight of their last ten as a result. Their three-point shooting can get ice-cold for long stretches, and contested two-point shots aren't the recipe for high-scoring contests. Their strong team defense has allowed their scorelines to stay respectable, but the reality is that Toronto needs to figure out its offense quickly if they hope to contend in the playoffs. I expect Darko Rajakovic to change up their offensive scheme and find success during the tail end of the regular season, making the Raptors prime ‘buy low’ candidates on the total. If the oddsmakers overreact to their recent under streak, they may be in store for some sweat-free overs going forward. 

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