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2026 Houston Rockets Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win NBA Championship

by Spencer Toth - 10/2/2026

Houston Rockets predictions Kevin Durant

The Houston Rockets have been expected to challenge for the NBA title since acquiring Kevin Durant, but they have still yet to win a playoff series with their superstar. Back-to-back 52-30 regular seasons is nothing to scoff at, but a pair of first round exits has the fan base wanting more with the new season around the corner. The Rockets have surrounded Durant with young talent, and the optimism is once again alive heading into the new year. Can the Rockets finally make a deep playoff run, or will it be another disappointing campaign as Durant’s career inches closer to a conclusion?

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Houston Rockets Offseason Recap

The Houston Rockets were relatively quiet in the offseason, as they focused on depth players around their core rather than looking to pull off a blockbuster. Their biggest addition was the arrival of Marcus Smart, who will be the backup point guard behind Fred VanVleet. The former Defensive Player of the Year is one of the best on-ball defending guards in the league and is more than capable of leading the second unit. He has bounced between three teams since leaving the Celtics, and Smart will be hoping he has a long-term role in Houston after signing a two-year deal. However, injuries have been a concern for Smart, as he has only played 70 or more games twice in the last nine years. He made the All-Defensive first-team in both of those seasons, as his ceiling is certainly still there at 32 years old.

Houston also brought in Bogdan Bogdanovic for some shooting depth, and he has a 38% career three-point percentage. Bogdanovic will find himself low on the depth chart to start the year, but will be needed when any of the Rockets starters inevitably miss some time due to injury. He is a capable defender who can never be left open in the corner, which will also help Houston’s floor-spacing when he is on the court. 

The Rockets were not without their departures, as they lost Josh Okogie and Dorian Finney-Smith this offseason. Neither player was especially impressive in the scoring department, averaging 4.5 PPG and 3.3 PPG each, but their impact on the defensive end was crucial. The Rockets were near the bottom of the league in shooting, especially the deep ball last year, so the idea behind these moves is to sacrifice some defensive dominance to give more time on the court to their better shooters. They still have Amen Thompson and Tari Eason, two excellent defenders, so it is not like their 4th-ranked defense from last year will fall off a cliff. 

Finally, while this isn’t technically an offseason change, the Rockets will have Fred VanVleet back in the lineup after he missed the entire season due to injury. VanVleet is one of five undrafted players to reach the NBA All-Star Game, and is the perfect point guard to facilitate this team. His unrelenting drive on both ends of the court makes everyone around him better, and his ability to lead a team is second-to-none. The Rockets looked lost on offense during long stretches last season without VanVleet, and now they should be able to play competent basketball on both ends of the court with his reintroduction to the squad. 

2026 Houston Rockets Season Expectations

The Houston Rockets are long overdue to make a deep playoff run, and the expectation will be at the very minimum to win their first playoff series since 2020. Kevin Durant is still an incredibly lethal scorer, Alperen Sengun has been dubbed ‘Baby Jokic’ due to his creative play, while Thompson and VanVleet will anchor this defense. Once you add Jabari Smith Jr. to the mix, it is no surprise that the Rockets have been able to find consistent regular season success with this squad. They had the 5th-best net rating in the league last year, and with new signings combined with the return of VanVleet, that feels like the floor for this team if they can stay healthy. 

The lengthy Rockets defense will be a solid unit again this year, but how high their ceiling is will come down to their play on the offensive end of the court. They found success scoring on the inside, but only took 31.5 three point attempts per game last year, the third-lowest mark in the league. Thompson is a non-factor from deep, Sengun will chuck up one or two a game but is not really a floor-stretching big, while Steven Adams didn’t have a single three-point attempt last year. This forces the Rockets to take high percentage two-point shots while hoping to get stops on the other end, which works against the bottom-half of the league. A ticky-tack defensive style has allowed the Rockets to find success in the regular season, but without the explosive three-point shooting for the playoffs, they have struggled. However, it is not all bad news as the Rockets were in the top-half in terms of success rate from deep, they just need to increase their volume a tad to really get them over the line.

The Rockets have a very unique lineup as they have no one really in their prime, but rather a collection of veterans with rising stars. The quartet of Thompson, Smith Jr., Sengun, and Reed Sheppard are all 24 or younger, while VanVleet, Durant, Smart, and Adams are all 32 or older. This allows their older players to pass down their NBA experience to the young core, which is essential to build a franchise not only this year, but going forward. The downside is that as their players develop, the veterans will be fizzling out, but this year could be the perfect season where they put it all together. 

2026 Houston Rockets Schedule Breakdown

The Rockets play their two Texas rivals to open up the year, taking on the Mavericks at home before heading to San Antonio. They have the privilege of playing eight of their first 13 games at home, including massive matchups against the Thunder, Celtics, and Nuggets. Jumping to the holidays, the Rockets have five road games in a 12-day span over Christmas, with a Sunday matinee on the 27th against the Thunder being their lone home game. In the NBA Cup, the Rockets take on the Mavericks and Nuggets on the road, while hosting the Suns and Jazz in West Group A.

2026 Houston Rockets Betting Odds

The Houston Rockets have a win total of 46.5, significantly lower than their previous 52-30 seasons. Looking at the playoffs, they have -500 odds to qualify with +375 odds to fall short and +200 odds to slip into the play-in tournament. These numbers don’t make sense. The Rockets got better by adding Smart, they now have VanVleet back from injury, and the spine of their team has gotten a year older with another year of NBA experience. Unless Durant’s production falls off a cliff, which I find unlikely given his playstyle, the Rockets will be a better, not worse team this year. 

Looking at the playoffs, Houston has +2200 odds to win the Western Conference with +4500 odds to win the NBA championship. In the NBA Cup, they are just behind the Nuggets for the group favorite at +200 odds, and have +2800 odds to lift the trophy.

2026 Houston Rockets Season Predictions and Best Bets

We are going over all 30 teams this year and providing best bets, and there are few picks I am more confident in than the Houston Rockets this season. I can’t figure out why the oddsmakers expect them to lose at least six more games than they did last season and the year before. The Rockets blend of experienced players and rising stars puts them in a very enviable position, and they should have no problems collecting at least 50 wins this year. The Western Conference still has two clear favorites in the Spurs and Thunder, but the middling teams are far less daunting this season. There will be fewer easy wins against aggressively tanking teams, but the increase in bad -- but not terrible -- opponents will offset that shift. For the first bet, we will happily take over 46.5 wins at -120 odds. 

For the second bet, we will get more aggressive. I always like to hunt for plus money with season-long futures, as we have to tie up less of our bankroll for months to secure the same profit. With the Rockets, we will be attacking them both in the regular season and playoffs. We can get +160 odds on 50+ wins for Houston, and +450 odds on 55+ wins. We will be sprinkling on both of these props, as this is a great price from them to finish right in line with their previous totals. I would argue that the Rockets are walking into the season with their best lineup in years, making 55 wins certainly in reach. 

Finally, we are going for it all with the NBA championship at +4500 odds. The top-end of the Western Conference is strong, but the Rockets shouldn’t have any problems in the first round if they finish outside of the play-in tournament spots. All of a sudden, they will have their first playoff series win in half a decade under their belt, and this +4500 price tag will age nicely. When comparing this team to the Lakers (+4000), Pacers (+4000), Warriors (+6000), Magic (+6000), and Hawks (+6000), I don’t even think it is close. Houston has the offense, defense, talent, depth, and experience to make a deep playoff run, and I am calling for this to be the year they put it all together. 

Pick: Houston Rockets Over 46.5 Wins -120

Top Pick: Houston Rockets 50+ Wins +160

Pick: Houston Rockets 55+ Wins +450

Pick: Houston Rockets to Win the NBA Championship +4500

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