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Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Playoff Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 5/4/2026

Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs playoff series predictions Anthony Edwards

The San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves clash in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs, with a spot in the conference finals on the line. Minnesota has reached the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons, and is coming off a big win over the Denver Nuggets in the first round. A perennially underrated squad, Minnesota is strong defensively and matches up nicely against the Spurs. 

Across the court stands Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. While the Spurs haven’t had much recent success with this being their first playoff appearance since 2019, the franchise has a long history of success that the next generation is eager to add to. It was a relatively straightforward first-round win against the Trail Blazers, and the Spurs will be feeling confident they have what it takes to sweep aside Minnesota in the second round. Can the Spurs take advantage of a banged-up Minnesota side, or will the Timberwolves shock the league again with another deep playoff run? Let’s dive right in. 

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San Antonio Spurs: 

Victor Wembanyama is irreplaceable and just might terrorize the league for decades to come. The 7’4 Frenchman is a menace on both ends of the floor and is the heart and soul of the Spurs’ rebuild. They are no longer rebuilding after finishing second in the NBA with a 62-20 record last year, with a top-four offensive and defensive rating in the regular season. Wembanyama was a big part of that, but it would be foolish to overlook the rest of the Spurs, who have gotten them to this stage of the season. 

De’Aaron Fox was brought in midseason to steady the Spurs’ backcourt, and he has done an excellent job in that regard as the second option behind Wembanyama. Fox is a crafty veteran who can create his own offense, will not hesitate to find the open man, and rarely turns the ball over, considering how often he has possession. He also leads the team in steals with 1.2 per game, turning into a positive contributor on both ends of the floor. 

Stephon Castle won Rookie of the Year last season and has flourished in his second year in the league. His partnership with Fox in the backcourt has blossomed, and Castle isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty in the paint either, with a lengthy layup package to go along with his 5.3 rebounds per game. Once you add in Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie to round out the starting five, the Spurs have a long list of developing prospects that few other teams can match. 

While there is a lot to like about this team, the reality is that they are all a supporting cast for Wembanyama. Wembanyama already has 16 blocks across four playoff games so far, and could have many more if teams dared challenge him in the paint. His presence on the inside can’t be captured by numbers, as the deterrence for other teams entering the high-percentage areas of the floor on offense is second-to-none. He is no slouch on the offensive end either, spearheading a very efficient unit all season long. 

Minnesota Timberwolves:
The Timberwolves have been underestimated in the past, and are once again being given sky-high odds to reach the third round of the playoffs. While there were reasons to advocate for this team in the past, the growing injury report makes an upset feel unlikely. Donte DiVincenzo has already been ruled out for the playoffs with an Achilles injury, while Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu are both questionable for Game 1 and have both missed time in the first round. Losing three starters is never easy, which leaves Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels as Minnesota’s top offensive contributors. 

Randle has settled into his new role in Minnesota nicely since coming from New York, but he still has serious playoff demons he needs to conquer. He was serviceable against the Nuggets in the first round, but a 46.2% effective field goal percentage on 19.2 PPG is still not good enough. Randle’s high-usage, low-efficiency playstyle doesn’t translate well into the playoffs, and the other options in Minnesota are few and far between. 

The Timberwolves booked this matchup thanks to strong play from Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels in the first round. Gobert was consistent on the defensive end throughout the series, and a 32-point double-double from McDaniels in Game 5 closed things out. If Anthony Edwards is good to go, and the rest of the Minnesota supporting cast can continue their strong play, the Timberwolves' four-game win streak just may be extended at the expense of San Antonio. 

Series Prediction:
Even if Anthony Edwards is available for every game in this series, and his injury doesn’t affect his play, I still don’t see how the Timberwolves win more than one game. San Antonio is better on both ends of the court, and when it is difficult to find a single advantage for one team, the result is often a one-sided series. The three-ball is the great equalizer in the NBA, but the Timberwolves are league-average in terms of usage despite shooting the sixth-best percentage. They will undoubtedly look to increase that number in this series with Wembanyama lurking in the paint, but they won’t get enough shots to drain against tight defense on the outside. 

San Antonio stumbled against the Trail Blazers in Game 2 before winning three straight to close it out, and I am expecting an even stronger showing this time around. They have a clean injury report and plenty of motivation, so while I hate to underestimate the Timberwolves again, I just don’t see how they keep this one close. The Spurs will go perfect at home after posting a 32-8 home record in the regular season, and one road win would be enough to take this series in five games. While Minnesota has proven its grit in the past, they are simply punching above their weight class, and I don’t see them picking up a single victory. This could age poorly, but given how the Spurs have looked, I have them sweeping the series. 

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs in Four Games

Best Bets:
There are a few ways we can attack this series. First of all, don’t bother touching the -600 series odds for San Antonio. If anything, sprinkling on the Timberwolves at +425 would be the way to go, but your best bet is to simply stay away. There are many sharper picks with better odds available on the Spurs, including them to take it in exactly four games at +290 odds. San Antonio is a prohibited -500 favorite in Game 1, and will likely have similar odds in Game 2. Assuming they take care of business at home, +290 odds represent a great price for them to pick up a pair of road wins. The current odds imply San Antonio would only be a -150 road favorite in the two games in Minnesota, and I expect the price to be significantly steeper than that. San Antonio is a team destined to clash with the Thunder in the WCF, and they will need all the rest they can get with a quick series win. 

For the second bet, we will take the Spurs with a -2.5 game handicap. We can still get -120 odds on this prop, and I expect it to cash a large percentage of the time. Minnesota’s best offense comes on the inside, an avenue they will be unable to exploit with Wembanyama in the paint, and I don’t know how they win on the road, or even defend home court. I like the better odds on the outright sweep better, but a safer play to maximize your chances at a profit is to lay the two and a half games and accept a potential gentleman’s sweep for the Spurs. 

Top Pick: San Antonio Spurs to Win in Four Games +290

Pick: San Antonio Spurs (-2.5 Games) -120

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