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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 1/19/2026 vs. Milwaukee Bucks

by Spencer Toth - 1/19/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Milwaukee Bucks Jalen Johnson

You have found the right place for all your Atlanta Hawks betting needs. Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Hawks game this season, with the goal of churning a consistent profit throughout the year. The tip-off time is early today due to Martin Luther King Day, so make sure you get your picks in. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Friday night, the Hawks lost to the Portland Trail Blazers 117-101. Injuries to Dyson Daniels, Kristaps Porzingis, and Zaccharie Risacher left the Hawks down three starters, and they didn’t have enough firepower left to overcome those absences. They took a lead into halftime, but were destroyed on the boards in the second half, losing the fourth quarter 29-14 to allow Portland to pull away. 

From a betting perspective, we went 0-4. Shaedon Sharpe finished one point short of his 24.5 point total, which we also laddered to 30+ points. Jalen Johnson had a quiet night on the statsheet, too, while the Hawks also did not reach their 117.5 point team total. 

The Hawks lost their third game in a row on Saturday night, falling to the Celtics 132-106. Atlanta had no answer for the Celtics three point barrage, as they were dominated on the glass and had no perimeter defenders with their three starters out again. The 26 point defeat actually implies it was a closer game than it was, as a hot fourth quarter for Atlanta closed the 117-74 gap on the scoreboard going into the final frame. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (20-24) are desperate for a win as they host the Milwaukee Bucks (17-24). Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons, and with the Hawks clinging onto the final play-in tournament position, this is a huge game for both teams. Atlanta has gone a miserable 7-12 at home this season, losing five of their last seven at State Farm Arena. Both teams are riding three game losing streaks heading into tonight, and with the season past the halfway point, time is running out for these squads to turn things around. 

Milwaukee still doesn’t know the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo, but what they do know is that his return from injury has boosted their playoff chances. Antetokounmpo is having a slower season this year, but he is still averaging 28.8 PPG, 9.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. The fact he is averaging less than 30 minutes per game for the first time in a decade is certainly a contributing factor, as his efficiency is as good as ever with the Bucks. He can still drive into the paint with alarming power, and the Hawks lack a truly physical big man to slow him down. Once you add in the fact that Myles Turner and Bobby Portis will also be looking to make an impact, size in the paint will be a huge concern for Atlanta. 

Onyeka Okongwu has filled in nicely for Kristaps Porzingis, but the reality is that Okongwu is a great second option at center, but one of the worst starters at that position in the league. His lanky frame is still filling out as he just had his 25th birthday last month, and a few more pounds could turn him into a real threat down low. He’s been getting involved in the offense a lot more this season compared to others, as it feels like he would be much better suited at the power forward position instead of a true number five. He will be forced to play a lot more interior defense than he would like with Porzingis still out, and the Hawks will need him at his best in this crucial matchup. 

On the outside, Atlanta has been struggling without Risacher and Daniels in the lineup. Vit Krejci has had flashes of brilliance, but he isn’t the type of shooter the Hawks can rely on for a consistent 20 points on a nightly basis. In the last five games, Krejci has shot 9/34 from the floor, for 5.4 PPG. The Hawks do have other offensive options with Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but considering Krejci is on the court for his offense, not his defense, his alarmingly low production is a real concern. 

In tonight’s matchup, the Hawks will be desperate to get Daniels back from injury. Some solidity on the outside will allow the Hawks to load up the paint in an effort to slow down Antetokounmpo, Turner, and Portis. Milwaukee will almost certainly dominate the glass against teams like the Hawks, meaning Atlanta will need to be efficient with its possessions while limiting three-point attempts for the Bucks. If Milwaukee can keep pace with Atlanta on the outside, there will only be one winner down low.
For the first bet of the night, we will be staying away from the spread and moneyline and instead take the over at 231 points. The Bucks will get lots of second-chance points in the paint, while I am expecting a real three-point barrage from the Hawks as they look to strand the Bucks' big men on the outside as often as possible. Quick possessions from Atlanta, coupled with easy two-point buckets for Milwaukee, will lead to a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. 

In the player prop department, there are a few ways we can attack this matchup. First will be Jalen Johnson’s three-pointers. Johnson will have Antetokounmpo on him on the offensive end of the court, meaning he will look to avoid driving into the paint whenever possible. Antetokounmpo is an excellent defender in the paint, but he is average-at-best on the perimeter. We will take Over 1.5 threes at +100 and Over 2.5 threes at +330 tonight. Johnson has scored 1.7 threes per game in his last ten, but with three nights with 0 makes, when he finds a matchup he likes, he will not hesitate to fire it from deep. These are great odds for a very plausible prop if the matchup goes down as expected. 

Finally, we will put a small sprinkle on Myles Turner Under 2.5 threes. This prop has -275 odds, but I can’t imagine this is the matchup where Turner looks to rain it down from deep. He has been hot from behind the arc lately, clearing this line in four of his last ten games, but he is still only averaging fewer than five attempts per night. I am not even sure he will reach that number tonight, making the under a nice parlay piece or a solid straight-up pick that will cash an overwhelming majority of the time. 

Pick: Hawks vs Bucks Over 231 2 Units

Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 1.5 Threes +100 3 Units

Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 2.5 Threes +330 1 Unit

Pick: Myles Turner Under 2.5 Threes -275 2 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 8-5

Spread: 15-12

Total: 1-7

Player Props: 26-18

Overall: 51-42

Total Units: Up 22.7 Units 

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