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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 1/21/2026 vs. Memphis Grizzlies

by Spencer Toth - 1/21/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Memphis Grizzlies Dyson Daniels

By analyzing every Atlanta Hawks matchup this season, we will be able to generate a consistent profit on player props, spreads, moneylines, and totals. Doc’s Sports is your home for the best Atlanta Hawks analysis this season, and if you have been following so far, you are already up 25 units on the year. 

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On Monday afternoon, the Atlanta Hawks fell short 112-110 against the Milwaukee Bucks. The 1 pm EST tip-off was unusual for the Hawks, and it clearly affected their shooting rhythm in the early stages. Atlanta went 0/21 from three-point range in the first 23 minutes of the contest before CJ McCollum hit a triple with 29 seconds left in the first half to cut the lead to 53-38. It was one of the coldest shooting performances in NBA history, and it was truly a miracle that the Hawks went into halftime only down 16 points. In the second half, the Bucks built the lead up to 21 points before a furious Hawks comeback made for a thrilling finish. Atlanta went on an 18-4 run to close out the third, and actually took the lead late in the fourth. However, some poor shot selection from Jalen Johnson, coupled with a brutal final possession from McCollum, saw the Hawks fall just short of the comeback. Nickeil Alexander-Walker finished with a game-high 32 points and seven threes, as his fourth-quarter play gave the Hawks a chance down the stretch. 

From a betting perspective, we went 2-2 but turned a 2.3 unit profit. We took a stab with over 231 points, which fell short thanks to 38 first-half points from the Hawks. We also expected Myles Turner to have a slow night from three-point range, but the big man went 4/6 from deep to easily clear the 1.5 threes line. To get us in the green, Johnson cashed over 1.5 threes (+100) and over 2.5 threes (+330) for the lone bright spot in the Hawks' defeat. 

Tonight, Atlanta (20-25) hits the road to take on the Memphis Grizzlies (18-23) in a crucial game for both teams. Memphis and Atlanta are both on the fringe of the play-in tournament in their respective conferences, and time is running out to make a push for the playoffs. The Grizzlies and Hawks were both favorites to make the playoffs heading into the season, but injuries and trade rumors have disrupted their early-season momentum. 

In Memphis, the trade rumors have never been louder around Ja Morant. Morant is now in his seventh season with the Grizzlies and hasn’t been able to live up to the hot start to his career. The Grizzlies have only won one playoff series in the last decade despite finishing second in the West twice in the last four years. Trading away Desmond Bane for a boatload of draft picks signaled that the Grizzlies are ready to rebuild, but they are still clutching onto Morant. Availability has been a concern for Morant, as he hasn’t played more than 50 games in three years and has played just 46% of games this season. 

On the court, Morant can be a dominant player. His partnership with Jaren Jackson Jr. has flourished, but the Grizzlies haven’t gotten enough scoring from elsewhere on their roster. Morant can drive and finish near the hoop with monstrous power, while Jackson Jr. is a reliable shooter from all three levels on offense. Jackson Jr.’s defense has also been a major boost for Memphis, keeping them just outside the top ten on that end of the court. The duo of Morant and Jackson Jr. leads the team with 19.3 and 18.8 PPG, respectively, with Santi Aldama’s 14.0 PPG the next highest total. Due to a revolving door of injuries, eight players average 10+ PPG, but that is a bit misleading, as only a handful are available each night. Offense has been a real problem for the Grizzlies, and things won’t get any easier against a strong Hawks side tonight. 

Atlanta’s cold shooting overshadowed its strong defensive play against the Bucks on Monday night. If the Hawks had hit a few of their first 21 threes instead of their historic cold streak, they would have been able to beat Milwaukee without too many problems. Tonight, Atlanta will be without Kristaps Porzingis and Zacharrie Risacher again, but they should still be comfortable favorites over the Grizzlies. Alexander-Walker and Johnson have been electric on offense, while the rest of the Hawks' rotation is full of solid defenders. Memphis does a good job of controlling rebounds on the inside, but the long rebounds created from the Hawks' three-point barrage will make it harder for the Grizzlies to dominate. While the Grizzlies will get extra possessions on the glass, the Hawks should be able to offset that with a serious advantage in both turnovers and steals. Dyson Daniels’ jump shot continues to struggle, but the Australian guard continues to find other ways to contribute. He is a master at swiping balls on defense, while his constant effort on the offensive glass is frequently rewarded. The Grizzlies are a bottom-half team that the Hawks should be able to swat aside, but given Atlanta’s streaky shooting, nothing is guaranteed for the Hawks. 

Atlanta is a +1.5 point road underdog over Memphis, and that is a price we can get behind. The Grizzlies have gone 9-11 at home this season compared to 8-11 on the road, while the Hawks are 13-12 on the road and 7-13 at home. Home court advantage should have a minimal impact on this one, making this a great spot to grab an amazing price on the Hawks. Atlanta has moved on from the Trae Young saga, while the Grizzlies are still figuring out a way to deal with Morant on their roster. Memphis’s lack of continuity from one game to the next will really hurt them against a well-drilled team like the Hawks. Atlanta may have lost four in a row, but they are due for some positive regression on the offensive end, and a struggling Memphis side is the perfect team to get back on track against. We won’t even take the +1.5 point spread, as there is more value on the +110 moneyline instead. 

For the second bet of the night, we will take Dyson Daniels to record over 6.5 rebounds at +100 odds. Daniels has cleared this line in five of his last six games, and the Hawks will need him to help out on the glass tonight. Memphis does a great job at controlling rebounds, meaning Atlanta will need to deploy a gang-rebounding mentality to keep up. Morant isn’t afraid to get dirty down low either, meaning Daniels will find himself close to the hoop more often than not tonight. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline +110 3 Units

Pick: Dyson Daniels Over 6.5 Rebounds +100 3 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 8-5

Spread: 15-12

Total: 1-8

Player Props: 28-19

Overall: 53-44

Total Units: Up 25.0 Units 

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