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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 1/7/2026 vs. New Orleans Pelicans

by Spencer Toth - 1/7/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs New Orleans Pelicans Dyson Daniels

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be providing free breakdowns and best bets for every Atlanta Hawks weekday game this season. We have been able to generate a steady profit so far this season, but the job is far from over as the NBA season approaches the halfway point. 

On Monday night, the Atlanta Hawks fell to the Toronto Raptors 118-100 for their second straight loss against Canadian opposition. The Raptors led from wire-to-wire, as the Hawks were very sloppy on the glass and in the paint in the early stages of the contest. Kristaps Porzingis made an immediate impact off the bench, but the Hawks were already down double digits at that point, and the feisty Raptors side never looked back. There were no standout players on the offensive end, as Brandon Ingram’s 19 points were a team-high for Toronto. Atlanta treated Ingram like a real superstar, sending frequent double teams his way for the first time this season. The Hawks were abnormally impatient on the defensive end, and while they woke up in the second half, it was too little too late for the Hawks. 

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From a betting perspective, we went slightly negative on the night. Our big play of the day was on the Raptors -3, winning five units on the top pick. We also took Ingram to score 25+ points at plus-money odds, but he fell short after a surprising and ineffective double team strategy from the Hawks. Finally, we took Nickeil Alexander-Walker to score 3,4, and 5 triples. He finished 2/6 from behind the arc, giving us a sour loss to cap off a disappointing night for the Hawks. 

It wouldn’t be crazy to call tonight’s game a must-win for the Hawks. Atlanta (17-21) hosts the New Orleans Pelicans (8-30) at State Farm Arena. The Hawks are now level with the Bucks for the final play-in tournament position and have drifted four games back of the 6th-place Cavaliers. The halfway point of the NBA season is approaching, and the Hawks need to figure out their season if they have any hope of tangible success this year. A playoff spot is far from guaranteed, and a weaker Pelicans team at home is the perfect spot to get back on track. The Hawks are 2-9 in their last 11 games, Trae Young has yet to win since October, and things might get really ugly in Atlanta if they lose this one tonight.

While the Pelicans' 8-30 record is far from impressive, they have started to turn things around with a 5-8 record since starting 3-22. Their star players have started to get healthy, but they still lack the belief that they can compete with the league’s best. This is the second night of a back-to-back for New Orleans, who took a 7-point lead into the fourth quarter yesterday against the Lakers before losing 32-17 in the final frame. The talent is there, but the best ability in the NBA is availability, something the Pelicans have learned the hard way this season. 

Regardless of the circumstances, a defeat against the banged-up and fatigued Pelicans, who sit dead last in the Western Conference, would be unacceptable. The Hawks haven’t been playing great in recent weeks, but they are now healthy and have the pieces needed to compete in a wide-open Eastern Conference. Trae Young is questionable to suit up for what could be his final game in a Hawks uniform. The trade rumors have never been hotter around Young, and moving on from the Hawks could make a lot of sense for both sides. Any assets the Hawks can get back for Young would be a huge plus, as they have proven to be a competent franchise when he isn’t on the court. Jalen Johnson has the keys to the franchise, and a plethora of young talent in Atlanta will usher in the next generation of Hawk superstars. 

In tonight’s matchup, the Hawks can’t afford to come out flat. Atlanta has struggled in the early stages of their losing skid, which has affected their mentality. A hot start against New Orleans, especially if Young suits up, will ignite the home crowd and push the Hawks on to a win. Atlanta is first in the league in both assists and assist ratio this season, which has allowed them to consistently get open from behind the three-point line. The Pelicans generate their fair share of steals, but they are a team that prioritizes shutting down the inside before sending help to the perimeter. With tired legs for New Orleans, the help defense will be a tad slower than usual, which will give the Hawks plenty of open looks from deep. The Hawks' offense is efficient, and it has only been the lack of rebounds on the offensive end that has stopped them from putting up stellar numbers through fourth quarters. Atlanta rarely gets extra possessions on the glass, which forces them to treasure the basketball on offense. Usually, teams that shoot lots of threes get more rebounds, but that hasn’t been the case this year in Atlanta. 

For the first bet of the night, we will take the Hawks' moneyline at -450 odds. This isn’t a price I would usually touch, but the Hawks are a perfect parlay piece in what is absolutely a must-win game. I still have faith that Atlanta can compete this season if they can make the playoffs, and I am not ready to give up hope just yet. We have correctly faded them during their recent cold streak, but it is time to get back on the bandwagon with some favorable matchups upcoming. 

For the second bet of the night, we will take Dyson Daniels to finish under 13.5 points. Daniels has stayed under this total in nine of his last ten games, and there is no reason to expect an aggressive effort from him on the offensive end. If Trae Young does return from injury, Daniels will have an even lower usage rate, although I am still confident in this one if Young sits. Daniels has turned into a passer during his time at point guard, and the towering Pelicans interior will deter him from diving into the paint. He is also ice cold from deep, and when the Hawks jack up plenty of threes tonight, Daniels won’t have enough two-point efforts to eclipse this total.

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline -450 3 Units

Pick: Dyson Daniels Under 13.5 Points 2 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 6-4

Spread: 15-12

Total: 1-6

Player Props: 22-15

Overall: 45-37

Total Units: Up 19.4 Units  

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