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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 1/9/2026 vs. Denver Nuggets

by Spencer Toth - 1/9/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Denver Nuggets Jalen Johnson

All year long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Atlanta Hawks game, while providing best bets along the way. We have been able to generate a consistent profit this season, up more than 20 units, but the job is far from over as we approach the halfway mark of the season. 

On Wednesday night, the Hawks picked up a much-needed win, beating the Pelicans 117-100. Zaccharie Risacher had a breakout game, scoring 25 points with a career-high 7 threes. His impact on both ends of the court was noticeable, as the former first-overall pick is finally finding his groove in Atlanta. It was another balanced effort on the offensive end for Atlanta, with seven players posting 10+ points in the victory. 

From a betting perspective, we had a perfect 2-0 night. We played it safe with the Atlanta Hawks moneyline, which was a sweat-free winner as Atlanta led from wire-to-wire. For our player prop, we took Dyson Daniels to finish with under 13.5 points, and the Australian finished with exactly 13 points. 

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Tonight, the Hawks (17-21) embark on a four-game, West Coast road trip that begins in Denver against the Nuggets (25-12). While a trip to Denver brings a unique challenge for the Hawks, we must first address the elephant in the room: Trae Young. Young was traded to the Wizards in the middle of Wednesday's game in exchange for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. Selling a perennial All-Star for pennies on the dollar is a drag for the Hawks front office, but it was a move that needed to be done to set them up to compete this season. The Hawks appeared to be a better team in the games Young was unavailable for this season, and getting anything in return for the pending free agent can be seen as a win for Atlanta. McCollum is having a productive year with the Wizards, as he looks to keep his streak of 11 straight seasons with 20+ PPG alive. That kind of consistent scoring is hard to replicate, so even though McCollum is on the wrong side of 30, he is still capable of producing on the offensive end for Atlanta. Kispert will be a bench player for the Hawks, but he may still get meaningful minutes if he can impress in the early stages of his Hawks career. Getting Young’s contract off the books to potentially make room for another trade is a secondary benefit of this move, as the Hawks can now dial in for a playoff push in the second half of the year. 

In tonight’s matchup, the primary headline is that Nikola Jokic remains out with a knee injury. The Hawks really dodged a bullet with the three-time MVP stuck on the sidelines, but it is still far from an easy victory in the Mile High City. Denver has gotten their other stars back from injury, as Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun have both returned from extended absences. Once you pair that duo with Jamal Murray, the Nuggets are still a formidable force, especially on their home court. 

The Nuggets' split with Jokic on and off the court is remarkable. In the last three seasons, the Nuggets' net rating is +5.5 when Jokic plays, compared to a -3.3 net rating when he sits. Things have started to level out as the Nuggets have nearly an even net rating when he is off the court this season. However, it is still very clear that Denver is an average, possibly below-average team without Jokic, compared to an NBA contender when he plays. Jokic’s extended absence means Murray and the other stars in Denver need to step up, or the Nuggets risk falling off the pace at the top of the Western Conference. 

Jamal Murray gets plenty of heat for riding the coattails of Jokic, but the Canadian All-Star is still one of the best scorers in the league. Murray is averaging 25.2 PPG, 7.5 assists, and 4.7 rebounds, with a 44.3% clip from behind the arc this season. All of those are career-highs, as Murray has embraced his increased role with his other stars on the sidelines. His volume will decrease slightly with Braun and Gordon back, but a defensively vulnerable team like Atlanta will give him plenty of chances to run up the score. 

For the Hawks, this is a pivotal road trip in the post-Young era. Jalen Johnson has been given the keys to the franchise, and the Hawks have surrounded him with plenty of other young talents. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is having a career year, and if Risacher can keep up his good form, this is a team that could challenge in a wide-open Eastern Conference. 

In tonight’s matchup, I expect the Hawks to find plenty of success on the inside. Not only is Jokic out, but backup center Jonas Valanciunas is also sidelined due to injury. That leaves DaRon Holmes and Zeke Nnaji as the only legitimate centers on the roster, giving the Hawks the ability to exploit the lack of experience down low. Aaron Gordon will help on the glass, but with Johnson able to match up nicely with Gordon, the Hawks will still have plenty of opportunities to vacuum up rebounds. On the perimeter, Murray and Braun are capable shooters, but the Hawks thrive on their perimeter defense with Dyson Daniels leading the charge. Daniels isn’t putting up jaw-dropping steal numbers this year, but that is primarily because teams are switching off him whenever possible. Daniels will look to stick to Murray whenever possible, as the Nuggets don’t have too many other creative players on their available roster. 

The Hawks are coming into this one as +100 underdogs, and we will take a small stab at the plus money price. Atlanta will seemingly have a small advantage on the inside and outside in this matchup. Fading the league’s number one offense is always daunting, but the Hawks have shown effort on the defensive end as of late, and with Young out of the picture, there are no more excuses for lackluster performances. 

In the player prop department, we will take Aaron Gordon to collect over 5.5 rebounds. He has gone over this total in both his games since returning from injury, and there is no reason to expect him to stop now. The Nuggets’ centers are not ball-hungry in the paint, meaning Gordon will have plenty of chances to help down low. He will be on Jalen Johnson for most of the game, who also prefers to hang around the paint rather than drifting behind the three-point line. When Gordon is around the hoop all game, his tenacity will allow him to surpass this total. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline +100 2 Units

Pick: Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 Rebounds 4 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 7-4

Spread: 15-12

Total: 1-6

Player Props: 23-15

Overall: 47-37

Total Units: Up 21.8 Units  

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